Monday, October 6, 2008

Obama's to lose?


As we head into the final days of the campaign it is becoming increasingly apparent that Barack Obama is in strong position for November. With polls now showing him up in Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and closing in on North Carolina and Indiana, it is looking like he may well break 300 electoral votes. While anything could happen in the next 25 days, it appears increasingly like Obama's campaign is in high gear and has all the momentum.
McCain is desperate. In recent days he's taking to branding Obama as a terrorist sympathizer, which is about as low as you can get. I would also add its pretty bad strategy. People will believe Obama is an elitist. They will believe that Obama is out of touch. They will believe Obama is inexperienced an naive. But i severely doubt they will take seriously a charge that Obama is a terrorist sympathizer (and i would add that all the stuff i just listed is total bs, but its believable bs.)
You never know whats going to happen, but at this point it would take a major major event for Obama to lose this election. If you look at the above map, the yellow states are currently toss ups, and all but Colorado and Nevada would put him over the top (i forgot to put ECVs on the map, but its Obama: 259 McCain: 190 Toss-Up: 89.) Recent Polling Averages (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) in those states:

Colorado: McCain+1
Florida: Obama+2
Nevada: Obama+1
North Carolina: Tied
Ohio: Obama+2
Virginia: Obama+3

If all of those are true, then Obama wins 324-214 (giving NC to McCain)

And if you want even better (for the democrats) numbers, polls released earlier today (and therefore not yet accounted for on electoral-vote.com) show this:

From FoxNews/Rasmussen:
Florda: Obama+7
Colorado: Obama+6
Missouri: Obama+3
Virginia: Obama+2
Ohio: Obama+1

ABC News/WSJ
Ohio: Obama+6

PPP
North Carolina: Obama+6

DemocracyCorps
Ohio: Obama+6

Suffolk University
Virginia: Obama+12

SurveyUSA
Virginia: Obama+10