North Carolina

Can the Democrats win in North Carolina?

Like most of the south the State has been solidly republican for the last two decades, and reelected firebrand conservative Jesse Helms to the senate five times. As in many of the southern states the democrats have continued to do well in local elections (they hold the governorship and 7 of the state's 13 house seats.) In terms of presidential elections, however, this state has been ruby red. It was one of just 5 southern states that voted against Bill Clinton both times, and was last one by Southerner Jimmy Carter. No non-southern democratic nominee has won it since John Kennedy.

Yet, this year might be different. A recent polled showed Obama and McCain tied in the state, 45% to 45%. Most other recent polls show McCain with a 4-10 point lead. It seems as though Obama may actually have a shot at the state, as well as its juicy 15 electoral votes. North Carolina has a strong populist streak, as the closure of textile mills has devastated much of the state. This, combined with increased black turnout, could spell a win for Obama. It is still, however, unlikely. Republicans hold the natural advantage in the state, and McCain's lead among rural voters and military veterans will make it very difficult for Obama to win. Democrats rely on socially conservative, but economically protectionist voters to win in the state. Obama seems unlikely to win enough of these votes to actually win the state, though one can always hope.

More encouraging is the downballot races. North Carolina is the only state this year to have competitive races for the governorship, senate seat, congressional seats and it's electoral votes. In the Senate, incumbent Elizabeth Dole, who haplessly chaired the GOP senate campaign committee in 2006, is surprisingly vulnerably. Her challenger is Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro. The Dole-Hagan race initially looked non-competative, with Dole holding a 10 point lead through most of the summer. Recently, however, it has heated up. A recent Rasmussen poll has Hagan up, 51-45. Another recent poll, from Elon University, has the race tied 35% to 35% (though I doubt it was an accurate poll, no way is 30% undecided.) 2 other polls from earlier this month have Dole up, one by 6 points and the other by eight. If Hagan can win this seat it would be huge. Not only would she defeat a Political legend in Liddy Dole, but she would inch the democrats 1 closer to the magicall 60 seat mark.

North Carolina also features a close gubernatorial race between Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue and Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. The race is very close, with most polls showing it within the margin of error. There are also several contested House Races. 2 years ago in the 8th district Incumbent Republican Robin Hayes beat Democrat Larry Kissel by roughly 300 votes. Kissell is running again, and this seat is a top democratic takeover opportunity this year. Other hosue races worth noting are in the 5th District (Rep. Virginia Foxx (R) vs. Roy Carter (D)), and in the 11th (freshmen Rep. Heath Shuler (D) vs. Carl Mumpower (R))

A Quick Point

our current economic problems excellently illustrate why you don't raise spending, cut taxes, and try to fight a ridiculously expensive war all at once. Maybe if the republican administration and the republican congress hadn't spent the last 8 years blowing through money like a lottery-winning gambling addict then we would have the money to bail out wall street. This is why we need balanced budgets, so that when the economy goes into free fall we have the reserves to help right the ship without causing long term damage to the country.

Really?

John McCain owns 13 cars. Barack Obama owns 1.

And Obama's the elitist?

McCain loves to put out this image of Obama as this aloof liberal celebrity with not idea what its like to be an "average american." Yet John McCain owns 13 cars and 7 houses, and is one of the richest men in the US Senate.

Obama was raised by a single mother on food stamps. He worked hard his entire life to get ahead. After graduating from Harvard he could have done just about anything. Instead of taking a lucrative job as a top Washington lawyer or fortune 500 executive he went to Chicago and worked to revitalize the South Side of Chicago after it was devastated by the closure of steel mills. What an elitist!

Goodbye, Thabo Mbeki

Thabo Mbeki, President of South Africa for the last 9 years, announced his resignation yesterday. Mr. Mbeki will have a mixed legacy. His efforts to economically liberalize South Africa's economy and move away from the African National Congress's socialist roots are laudable. However, in other areas Mr. Mbeki has sorely dissapointed. His silence in the face of Zimbabwe's electoral crisis may well have led directly to Robert Mugabe being able to hang on to power in that country. He has utterly mishandled the ensuing refugee crisis, as people fleeing the Mugabe regime are now flooding into northeastern South Africa. Hopefully South Africa's next president, likely to be Mbeki's arch rival, Jacob Zuma, will have a more impressive record.

The Election

One of the more discouraging things about this election year has been the way the presidential race has sucked up all the attention. Its quite startling because it displays a fundamental misunderstanding people seem to have about our government. President are important. They oversee the military, veto or sign legislation, and are is the face of the country to the world. Their powers, however, pale in comparison to the congress. Congress has almost complete purview over domestic policy. Its fair to say that most of the things presidents are credited with doing have been mostly done by congress. Certainly the president's agenda has a huge impact on legislation, and laws presidents champion tend to get lots of support in congress, but in the end all the president gets to do is veto or sign what congress churns out. Every dollar of discretionary spending is appropriated by congress.

If you watch the news you get the impression that the only election being decided this November will be the presidential one. Yet there are 35 seats in the United States Senate and 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for grabs. Why these races don't get attention is beyond me. The Democrats hold a narrow, narrow advantage in the Senate right now, 51 to 49 (and only with the help of two independents.) The Democrats hold a more comfortable advantage in the house, 236 to 199. Many have been disappointed by the relative inaction of the congress since the democrats took over in 2006. This is solely because of the close senate. The house passed loads of legislation, much of which meet a swift death in the senate, where 60 votes are needed to break a philibuster. In November, the democrats have an opportunity to pick up 4-7 seats. If They can get in the upper 50s, maybe 57 or 58 seats, then a President Obama should be able to get much of his agenda through congress, and a President McCain will find his agenda impossible. The next senate will have a massive economic meltdown , looming crises in health care and social security and a climate crisis on its hands. It will be they, not the president, that is on the front lines of these issues.