Grasping at Straws

Now it Begins

2009-01-20T17:46:00.000-08:00

Let me just say that I am tremendously excited that Barack Obama is now our president, it's almost surreal to have a competent man in the White House. Barack Obama has the potential be a fantastic President, perhaps even one of the best.

That said, now is the time to govern. Running a campaign and running a country are very different things, and Obama's prowess at the former, while encouraging, has minimal correlation to the latter. Obama now has to do what he can to make this country and world a better place. He's off to a good start, stopping torture and closing Guantanamo are superb first steps, but there's a lot more to do. The economy is in a deep recession, climate change is threatening our way of life, our military is actively engaged in two foreign occupations and our budget is deep in deficit with no solution in sight. The ways in which he reacts to these problems will define his presidency. All are tough, controversial issues, the type that either make you a great president, or make you a national joke. We must always remember that the first nail in George W Bush's coffin was his abortive attempt to "privatize" the social security system. The Obama administration seems poised to make a big swing at health care reform, a sticky and dangerous topic that marred Bill Clinton's first term and helped lead the republicans to a landslide in the '94 midterm elections. Success in that endeavor would be a major triumph, but failure could detonate his presidency.

The most concerning thing about Obama is the populist bent be took on free trade during the campaign. There is little more important to our economy and that of the world than open and free trade with other countries. Nothing will be more disappointing than if Obama continues to oppose good trade agreements, like that with Colombia that was shot down by House Democrats for solely political reasons. The fears of Free Traders have been somewhat assuaged, however, by the selection of Former Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk, a NAFTA supporter, as US Trade Representative. Hopefully it is Kirk's philosophy, and not that of the protectionists, that will guide our trade policies.

(sorry about my extended absence from this blog, i kinda got out of the habit of writing)

I Apologize

2009-01-06T15:59:00.001-08:00

for the extended absence, the next month or so is going to be really busy for me, and i wont be posting quite as much, but ill try my best to post as much as i can

The Obama Cabinet

2008-12-19T13:03:00.000-08:00

Barack Obama completed his cabinet today with the appointments of Hilda Solis as Labor Secretary, Ray LaHood as Transit Secretary and Ron Kirk as Trade Representative. His complete cabinet (several top non-cabinet jobs are included):

Cabinet
State: Senator Hillary Clinton
Treasury: NY Federal Reserve Bank President Tim Geithner
Defense: Current Defense Secretary Robert Gates
Attorney General: Fmr. Deputy AG Eric Holder
Interior: Senator Ken Salazar
Agriculture: Fmr. Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack
Commerce: New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson
Labor: Congresswoman Hilda Solis
Health and Human Services: Fmr. Senator Tom Daschle
Housing and Urban Development: NYC Housing Commissioner Shaun Donovan
Transportation: Congressman Ray LaHood
Energy: Nobel Prize Winning Physicist Steven Chu
Education: Chicago Schools Chief Arne Duncan
Veteran's Affairs: Fmr. General Eric Shinseki

Cabinet Level
Chief of Staff: Congressman Rahm Emanuel
Environmental Protection Agency: New Jersey Environmental Protection Chief Lisa Jackson
Office of Management and Budget: Congressional Budget Office Director Peter Orszag
US Trade Representative: Fmr. Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk
UN Ambassador: Fmr. Undersecretary of State Susan Rice

Other Important Possitions
National Security Advisor: General James Jones
Director of National Intelligence: Admiral Dennis Bair
Energy and Climate Change: Fmr. EPA Chief Carol Browner
SEC Commission: Chief Financial Regulator Mary Shapiro
National Economic Council: Fmr. Treasury Secretary Larry Summers
Economic Recovery Board: Fmr. Fed Chairman Paul Volcker
Council of Economic Advisors: UC Berkley Economics Professor Christina Romer

Top Advisors
Senior Advisor(s): Political Strategist David Axelrod, Obama Senate Chief of Staff Pete Rouse, Businesswoman Valerie Jarrett
Deputy Chief of Staff: Congressional Staffer Jim Messina, Fmr. NSC Member Mona Sutphen
Cabinet Secretary: Obama Senate Staffer Chris Lu
White House Counsel: Fmr. White House Special Counsel Greg Craig
Press Secretary: Campaign Communications Director Robert Gibbs
Communications Director: EMILY's list Executive Director Ellen Moran
Chief of Staff to Joe Biden: Fmr. Gore Chief of Staff Ron Klain
Chief of Staff to Michelle Obama: Political Strategist Jackie Norris

Today in History

2008-12-15T14:29:00.000-08:00

On December 15:

1488: Bartholomeu Diaz returns to Portugal after becoming the first european to sail around the tip of africa
1791: The bill of rights becomes law as Virginia becomes the 10th state to approve the first 10 amendments to the constitution
1864: The Confederate Army of Tennessee is decimated at the battle of Nashville, and ceases to be an effective fighting force. The Battle signals the beginning of the end of the American Civil War
1899: The Boers decisively defeat the British at the battle of Colenso during the Boer War
1922: The British Broadcasting Company (BBC) is formed
1939: The movie Gone With the Wind premiers
1939: Nylon is used commercially for the first time
1944: The Battle of Luzon begins as American General Douglas McArthur continues his quest to retake the Philipines from the Japanese
1961: Adolph Eichmann, the architect of the holocaust, is sentanced to death
1964: Canada adopts the maple leaf flag it is now known for
1965: Gemini 6 and Gemini 7 become the first craft to link up in space
1989: Romanian Dictator Nicolae Ceaucescu falls
1997: The last Minuteman Silo is destroyed. The Minuteman missle was the heart of the U.S. nuclear arsenal during the cold war

Birthdays: Nero (37 AD), Gustave Eiffel (1832), Paul Getty (1892)

Today in History

2008-12-14T15:16:00.000-08:00

on December 14th:

1287: 50,000 die after Zuider Zee wall collapses in the Netherlands
1790: Treasury Secretary Alexander Hamilton proposes to create the Bank of the United States
1900: German Physicist Max Planck published his quantum theory. Synthesis of his theory with Einstein's theory of relativity is the basis of modern physics
1906: Germany's first U-Boat is commissioned
1918: Woman vote in a UK general election for the first time. The first woman MP is elected, but, being a Sinn Fein member, she is unable to take her seat.
1927: Iraq is formally recognized as an independent country
1947: NASCAR is founded
1981: Israel annexes Golan Heights

Birthdays: Nostradamus (1503), Tycho Brahe (1546), King George VI (1895), Jimmy Doolittle (1896), Margaret Chase Smith (1897),

Continuity Notice

2008-12-12T12:48:00.000-08:00

I'll be back to daily posting Sunday. Sorry for the brief hiatus.

Everything is Happening

2008-12-09T13:17:00.001-08:00

I apologize again for my absence this week. Here is a roundup of recent political news:

-Obama has announced former General Eric Shinseki as Secretary of Veteran's affairs. Shinseki is known for his role in the lead up to the Iraq war, when he was highly critical of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld's approach to the war. Shinseki is the first Asian appointed to Obama's cabinet.

-Governor Rod Blagojevich (D) of Illinois has been arrested for trying to sell the appointment to Barack Obama's senate seat. For those of you who don't know Blagojevich he could best be summarized as an idiot schmuck who gives both the democratic party and the state of Illinois a bad name. He has consistently been one of the most unpopular governors in the country and was only reelected in 2006 because the republicans nominated someone just as bad (voters were so disgusted in the choice that the Greens got 11% of the vote.) Regarding this senate seat Blagojevich reportedly said the seat “is a fucking valuable thing, you just don’t give it away for nothing,” Trying to sell a senate seat while under investigation is a rather stupid thing, and Blago will hopefully soon be in prison. The Illinois state senate seems likely to soon consider legislation striping the governor of his power to fill senate vacancies and instead hold a special election. Illinois is weird. It elects fantastic senators (Obama and Dick Durbin are top notch,) but its governors are terrible (Blago's predecessor, George Ryan, is in prison for corruption)

-The final races in the U.S. House of Representatives have concluded. In Louisiana two delayed general elections produced wins for the republicans. In the 4th district John Fleming (R) apparently defeated Paul Carmouche (D) by a tiny margin for the seat of outgoing congressman Jim McCrery (R). In the New Orleans based 2nd district the republicans scored an upset as Joseph Cao beat corrupt congressman Bill Jefferson. The results shocked the political world, as the democrats normally win the district with 70+ percent. In Ohio's 15th district Mary Jo Kilroy (D) was declared the winner over Steve Stivers (R) after the final ballots in Kilroy stronghold Franklin County were voted. In California's 4th Tom McClintock (R) was finally declared the winner over Charlie Brown (D) (for the record, I despise McClintock wholeheartedly and am very disappointed about this) There is still a recount going on in the Virginia 5th, but democrat Tom Perriello has enough of a lead over incumbent republican Virgil Goode that it seems highly unlikely that Goode will win.

-Caroline Kennedy has emerged as a front runner to replace Hillary Clinton in the senate. It is unclear how interested she is in the job, however.

-In Canada, Parliament has been suspended so that Prime Minister Stephen Harper of the conservative party can delay a vote of no confidence in his government. The newly minted Liberal-NDP coalition, with the support of the Bloc Quebecois, will likely topple Harper when parliament reconvenes, though its unclear if the coalition will take power or if another election will be held. Meanwhile, the Liberals appear likely to replace their leader, Stephane Dion, with Michael Ignatieff. Mr. Dion, a wonky Quebecer, lead his party to a record low number of seats in an election in October. Mr. Ignatieff is smart and seems politically skilled, but is criticized by some because he spent most of his life in the United States. Some in the NDP fear that the coalition may collapse, as Ignatieff was not as strong of a supporter of the coalition as Mr. Dion. Ignatieff's path to the leadership was made clear today when former Ontario Premier Bob Rae stepped aside. The other main challenger for the leadership, Dominic LeBlanc, dropped out several days ago. It is unclear when exactly Ignatieff will become the party leader, or if he will subsequently become Prime Minister if Harper falls to a vote of no confidence in January.

-In Ghana, votes are still being counted in an election held on December 7th. It appears as though it will head to a runoff between John Atta-Mills and Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo on the 28th. The world is holding its breath, hoping for a clean and fair election after a year that saw questionable or fraudulent polls in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Hopefully, if there is a runoff, is will be a refreshingly clean election.

Sorry

2008-12-07T16:38:00.000-08:00

expect minimal posting over the next week, I'm super busy and will not have much time to post on here

my apologies

HUGE UPSET IN LOUISIANA

2008-12-06T23:34:00.001-08:00

New Orleans has shocked the political world tonight.

The 2nd congressional district takes in New Orleans and a few surrounding areas. It is overwhelmingly democratic, to the point that its not even considered remotely contestable for a republican. It has been represented since the 90s by Bill Jefferson, an utterly corrupt democratic who was indicted last year and will likely be in prison soon. Jefferson has faced tough fights in the primary, but always survived. Tonight was the runoff in his congressional race, and he was expected to easily beat republican also-ran Joseph Cao.

Cao won.

To say this is an upset is an understatement. Its way more than an upset, its a total shock. No one saw this coming, no one even considered the possibility that Cao could win. Nothing remotely comparable has happened wince Michael Flanagan took out Rostenkowski in '94. Just Bizarre.

Also, Paul Fleming (R) beat John Carmouche (D) in the 4th, holding onto it for the republicans. This one was supposed to be the close race.

Cookies

2008-12-04T16:09:00.000-08:00

Taking a brief break from politics, I'd like to write about something that's been on my mind for a very long time.

Why the hell can't they just make white chocolate chip cookies? Why do they have to include macadamia nuts. I love cookies, and I love white chocolate and together I think they are a fantastic combination. But the stupid cookie makers just have to include macadamia nuts, which completely ruins it. Macadamia nuts are awful, they don't crunch right and have a weird taste to them. I find it to be a very disappointing experience when I bite into a nice good white chocolate chip cookie and then suddenly have the scourge of Macadamia nuts being what I taste. I don't understand why cookie makers insist on adding Macadamia nuts to them, and i think they should immediately stop.

Another question I have always had: Why are there not plain cookies? I like chocolate chip cookies, but I always find I enjoy the parts of them without chocolate chips more then the parts with them. I think i would very much enjoy chocolate chip cookies without chocolate chips. I think it is strange that just plain cookies are not more widespread, and I also think i would very much like to eat them.

Harper Government Safe......for now

2008-12-04T15:45:00.000-08:00

The Governor General of Canada has suspended Parliament, saving the Harper government from a vote of no confidence on Monday. Parliament will reconvene in January, when another no confidence vote will probably be called. Harper now has a month to try and save his government. It seems likely at this point that his government will fall whenever the vote is called.

Today In History

2008-12-04T15:34:00.000-08:00

On December 4th:

771: Charlemagne becomes the ruler of the Frankish Empire
1674: The first building of what will eventually become Chicago is built
1808: The Spanish Inquisition is banned by Napoleon
1867: The Grange, a influential gilded age political movement, is founded
1918: Woodrow Wilson departs to France to represent the US in the Versailles negotiations. It is the first ever official trip to Europe by a US President
1945: The US Congress votes to join the UN
1977: Jean-Bedel Bokassa, President of the Central African Republic, declares himself Emperor of the newly named Central Africa Empire

Birthdays: Thomas Carlyle (1795), Francisco Franco (1892), Pappy Boyington (1912)

Fascinating

2008-12-03T15:33:00.000-08:00

Obama announced New Mexico Governor and former Presidential contender Bill Richardson as his Secretary of Commerce. This is Richardson's account of an interesting incident during one of the Democratic Primary Debates last year, recounted in an Esquire Magaine interview:

"As I’m chatting with Obama, the moderator says, “Governor Richardson, what do you think of that?” And I look at him like a deer in the headlights. I was about to say that I hadn’t heard, when Obama puts his hand over his mouth and says, “Katrina.” So I gave my four-point plan on Katrina. When I was done and the debate moved on, I looked over and said, “Thanks, you’re okay.” He said, “Nothing to it, brother.”

Today In History

2008-12-03T13:18:00.000-08:00

On December 3rd:

1868: The treason trial of Confederate President Jefferson Davis begins. He will later be pardoned by President Andrew Johnson
1879: Thomas Edison demonstrates the light bulb for the first time
1944: Civil War breaks out in Greece
1967: The first heart transplant is performed
1971: The 3rd Indo-Pakistani war breaks out as India moves to intervene in a civil war between West and East Pakistan. The war will lead to East Pakistan's independence as Bangladesh
1984: A Union-Carbide pesticide plant in Bhopal, India leaks lethal gases into the air. 8,000 die and 600,000 are hurt by the worst industrial accident in history
2001: Dean Kamen introduces the Segway

Birthdays: Samuel Crompton (1753), Sir Rowland Hill (1795), Ozzy Osbourne (1948)

Watching the Politics

2008-12-02T21:02:00.001-08:00

Some political news:

-Senator Saxby Chambliss (R-GA) was reelected in a runoff against Jim Martin (D), ending the democrat's "quest" for 60 senate seats (which doesnt at all matter, by the way)

-Jeb Bush is apparently interested in running for Mel Martinez's senate seat. If he does, he would almost certainly win it due to his huge popularity in Florida. If he does then look for the top name democrats to pass on the race

-Rumor has it that Xavier Becerra has been offered the post of Trade Representative in the Obama Administration, a completely unexpected choice. If he accepts Becerra would give up his leadership post (Caucus Vice-Chair) in the House.

-In Canada Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper hinted he may seek a prorogation in order to prevent his government's fall in a no confidence vote on December 8th (a prorogation would suspend parliament, basically)

-Down in Australia the Deputy Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, and the deputy opposition leader, Julie Bishop, are in a quarrel over Gillards behavior toward Bishop during question time. Ms. Bishop recently made an odd claw-like gesture toward Gillard (those of you who don't know what question time is HAVE to watch C-SPAN at 9PM on sundays, its the most interest political ritual in the world)

-In Thailand the constitutional court has disolved the ruling People's Power Party and banned prime minister Somchai Wongsawat and many other from politics (see the next post)

A quick note from Austin:
Sorry the second part of the Pakistan thing hasnt been posted yet, I'm working on it.

Thailand

2008-12-02T14:22:00.000-08:00

Over the last few years Thailand has been immersed in political turmoil. Today, it got a lot worse.

In the 2001 election, widely seen as one of first clean elections in Thai history, the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT) won a majority in parliament and formed government with Thaksin Shinawatra as Prime Minister. Thaksin was immensely popular in the rural areas north of Bangkok, but was despised by the Bangkokian elite, the military and hard line royalists. In 2005 Shinawatra and the TRT decisively won reelection In 2006 the military launched a coup d'etat and overthrew Shinawatra. The military then banned Shinawatra from politics and abolished the Thai Rak Thai. Party members then joined the People's Power Party (PPP), which subsequently won the 2007 elections, effectively returning the TRT to power. Samak Sundaravej became prime minister, and openly said he was a Thaksin proxy. Despite the election results, the opposition was not done in their quest to purge the Thaksinites out of government. Supporters of the main opposition party, the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD), took to the streets in massive protests against Samak and occupied many government buildings. In September the courts forced Samak out of power. Before becoming Prime Minister Samak had been the host of a cooking show. After he became Prime Minister several pre-taped episodes were aired. The courts decided that this violated a provision of the constitution banning a Prime Minister from drawing income from a non-governmental so Samak was forced out of power. He was replaced by Somchai Wongsawat. Since then the PAD protests have continued, culminating in the takeover of the Bangkok airport last week. Earlier today, the constitutional court banned the PPP and barred Somchai and the top PPP leaders from politics. The remaining Thaksinites will likely now join the Puea Thai Party, which will probably take power.

This whole episode has been deeply disturbing. Either Thaksin or his supporters have been elected in the last three elections by convincing margins. The election after which the military launched it's coup was a Thai Rak Thai landslide and had the highest voter turnout in Thai history. That electoral verdict should have been respected. The PAD and it's supporters need to understand that political change should be accomplished at the ballot box and not through street protests and coup d'etats. Thaksin was, admittedly, a poor Prime Minister, but that doesn't mean the PAD and the military should launch coups and street protests and use back room maneuvering to pry him out of office, rather it means that they should do all they legally can to beat him in the next election. Democracy will never flourish in Thailand if the opposition or the military thinks it can just throw out the popularly-elected winner. One can only hope that PAD's disgusting attempts to circumvent democracy fail and that Thailand's military permanently removes itself from politics.

Today in History

2008-12-02T13:01:00.000-08:00

On December 2nd:

1697: St. Paul's Cathedral in London is opened
1804: Napoleon crowns himself Emperor of France
1805: One year after his coronation, Napoleon defeats Russian and Austrian forces at the Battle of Austerlitz, possibly the most genius battle of his career
1823: James Monroe proposes what will come to be called the Monroe Doctrine
1859: John Brown is hanged for treason
1942: The first chain nuclear reaction is created at the University of Chicago
1954: Communist hunter Joseph McCarthy is censured by the US Senate
1969: The Boeing 747 is publicly demonstrated for the first time
1979: Ayatollah Khomeini's new Iranian constitution is ratified
1990: The first elections are held in the reunited Germany
2001: Enron files for bankruptcy

Birthdays: Georges Seurat (1859), Georgy Zhukov (1896), Alexander Haig (1924)

MARTINEZ TO RETIRE

2008-12-02T12:44:00.000-08:00

First term Republican Senator Mel Martinez of Florida, who briefly served as RNC chair in 2007, will not run for reelection in 2010. This is huge news, as there will probably be a mammoth battle for this Senate Seat. State CFO Alex Sink, the democrat's strongest potential challenger, said yesterday that she would not challenge Martinez, but is rumored to now be reconsidering her decision. On the republican side state Attorney General Bill McCollum, who was defeated by Martinez in the primary 6 years ago, put out a statement that he was considering a bid. Another possibility is popular Fmr. Governor Jeb Bush, who would be the frontrunner if he ran (though it seems doubtful that he will.) Other potential Republican candidates include Fmr. State House Speaker Marco Rubio, State Senate President Jeff Atwater and Reps. Ander Crenshaw, Adam Putnam, and Connie Mack IV. On the democratic side potential candidates include Sink, State Senator Dan Gelber and Reps. Allen Boyd, Kathy Castor, Kendrick Meek, Rob Wexler, Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Ron Klein. It will be a very interesting race

and who knows, maybe Katherine Harris will throw her hat into the ring again. (kidding)

Update: Congressman Allen Boyd, a centrist from the Tallahassee area, released a statement saying he is considering a run. Boyd would be a very good general election candidate, but it seems unlikely that he would be able to win a democratic primary, as he is both a centrist and hails from the north while the majority of democratic primary voters live in southern Florida.

Watching the Politics

2008-12-01T20:29:00.001-08:00

Some Recent Political News:

-Florida CFO Alex Sink (D) announced that she will not run for the U.S. Senate against incumbent Mel Martinez (R) in 2010. Sink was widely seen as the strongest contender against the vulnerable Martinez, who served briefly as chairman of the Republican Party in 2007. Sink will run for reelection as CFO, and seems likely to run for Governor in 2014. Remaining possible candidates to challenge Martinez include Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Ron Klein, Rob Wexler, State Senator Dan Gelber and Fmr. Rep. Karen Thurman.

-In Alabama Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) has launched a new website apparently in anticipation for a run for the Governorship in 2010. Incumbent Rob Riley (R) is term limited. Congressman Artur Davis (D) and LG Jim Folsom (D) are also looking at the race. Folsom is the apparent democratic front runner. Potential republican candidates include State Community College System Chancellor Bradley Byrne, Secretary of Staff Beth Chapman, State House Minority Leader Mike Hubbard, State Treasurer Kay Ivey, '06 LG Candidate Luther Strange and businessman Tim James.

-In Nevada it appears that LG Brian Krolicki will be indicted for financial mismanagement as State Treasurer. Krolicki was looking into a run against Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010. Congressman Jon Porter, who was narrowly defeated for reelection this year, is now the republican's top candidate for the seat. With a stronger candidate Reid would be highly vulnerable, but it seems unlikely that Porter would be able to unseat the formidable Reid.

-In California's Riverside-based 44th congressional district the democrat's 08 nominee, Bill Hedrick, announced he would make a second run in 2010 against longtime republican incumbent Ken Calvert. Hedrick came out of the blue to within a few points of knocking off Calvert this year. Calvert has come under fire for fishy land deals over the last few years and was arrested in the 90s when discovered utilizing a prostitute in his car.

-Recounts and legal proceedings continue in the Ohio 15th congressional race and the Minnesota Senate. It will be awhile till either is resolved

-The runoff in the George senate race between incumbent Saxby Chambliss (R) and Jim Martin (D) is tomorrow. All the late polls show Chambliss with a solid lead, and it seems likely that he will be reelected

OPPSITION TO FORM COALITION IN CANADA

2008-12-01T14:31:00.001-08:00

Big news from our neighbors in the north:

It seems as though Canada's three opposition parties will topple the Conservative Stephen Harper government in a vote of no confidence on December 8th. Harper was first elected in 2006 with a minority government. Earlier this year, believing a majority to be within his grasp, Harper called an election. He won, but again failed to win a majority of seats in Parliament. Now, it appears that his government will be defeated in a vote of no confidence next Monday. The centre-left Liberal Party of Stephane Dion will then enter into a coalition with Jack Layton's quasi-socialist New Democratic Party with the support of the separatist Bloc Quebecois of Gilles Duceppe. The Governor-General will then decide whether to hold another election or, most likely, allow the coalition to form government. Stephane Dion, leader of the Liberal Party, would be Prime Minister until March, when the Liberals select their new leader, most likely Michael Ignatieff (Bob Rae and Dominic LeBlanc are the other candidates.)

If the Coalition forms government it seems likely that another election will be called within the next year or two. Holding together Coalition governments are very tricky, especially as the coalition will depend in support from the prickly Bloc Quebecois. Interesting times are ahead for Canada

If you want to follow this the Globe and Mail and the CBC are probably the best news sources. I personally find this to be absolutely riveting. Something about Canadian politics is just utterly fascinating.

Today in History

2008-12-01T14:20:00.000-08:00

On December 1st:

1640: Portugal regains independence after 60 years of Spanish rule
1824: In one of the most hotly contested presidential election in American history, congress elects John Quincy Adams president after no candidate received a majority of the electoral votes
1878: The first telephones are installed in the White House
1879: Gilbert and Sullivan's operetta , HMS Pinafore, has it's first performance in London
1891: James Naismith invents basketball at the YMCA in Springfield, Massachusetts
1906: The world's first movie theatre opens in Paris
1918: Yugoslavia created
1955: Rosa Parks arrested for refusing to give up her bus seat, sparking the Montgomery bus boycotts and propelling Martin Luther King Jr. into national prominence
1990: The English and French sides of the Chunnell are united

Birthdays: Madame Tussaud (1761), Woody Allen (1935), Richard Pryor (1940)

Today in History

2008-11-30T12:12:00.000-08:00

On November 30th:

1609: Galileo first observes the faces of the moon
1774: Thomas Paine arrives in Philadelphia
1782: The British sign a preliminary agreement in Paris recognizing American Independence
1864: In what may be the most important battle of the civil war, Confederate General John Bell Hood is crushed by Union forces under George Henry Thomas at the battle of Franklin. Hood's army is utterly destroyed, wiping away the last battle-hardened standing army in the western theatre
1939: The Russo-Finnish war begins when Stalin invades Finland. Britain and France some to the Finn's defense, and the war is officially ended in March of 1940. The term "Molotov Cocktail" comes out of this war
1954: An Alabama woman is hit by a meteorite, the first modern occurrence of such a thing
1993: Bill Clinton signs the Brady Bill into law

Birthdays: Mark Twain, Winston Churchill, Dick Clark, Abbie Hoffman

Changes

2008-11-29T22:51:00.000-08:00

To keep my minuscule reader base informed:

Over the next few weeks I will be posting a series of reviews of this years happenings. I'm starting with Pakistan (see the last post) and will be covering the election, turmoil in Zimbabwe, Kenya, the Congo and Somalia, Russia's resurgence, the economy (maybe) and probably much more. Should be fun

I am also going to start posting historical events that happened every day. It's interesting to know what time of year things happened. I like being able to imagine the weather outside when things happen. Weather is an important thing, it sets the mood of the day and has a huge impact on everything. Knowing what the weather was like during historic events is highly important.

This Day in History

2008-11-29T19:02:00.000-08:00

November 29th:

1516: France and Switzerland sign a peace treaty, starting 5 centuries of Swiss neutrality
1887: The U.S. takes possession of Pearl Harbor, Hawaii
1890: Japan's Diet (Congress) holds it's first session
1944: The first open heart surgery takes place
1947: The UN votes to create Israel
1950: US and UN forces begin full-scale retreat from North Korea after Chinese counter invasion
1961: NASA launches Enos, a monkey, into space
1963: Lyndon Johnson establishes the Warren Commission
1990: The UN authorizes military action if Iraq doesn't withdraw from Kuwait
1999: 50,000 protesters gather in Seattle to oppose the WTO

Birthdays: Louisa May Alcott (1832), C.S. Lewis (1898), Adam Clayton Powell Jr. (1908)

South Asia

2008-11-26T19:50:00.000-08:00

Our thoughts today should be with the 100 people killed in a terrorist attack in Mumbai. May they rest in peace.

South Asia is such a troubled place. Sri Lanka has been ripping itself apart in a brutal 20-year long civil war. Myanmar is in the deadly grasp of an oppressive military junta. Thailand, once a promising emerging democracy, has been in a state of political paralysis since the 2005 Coup and seems to be slowly tearing itself apart. Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam are all ruled by dictators. Pakistan is in what could only be described as utter chaos. Afghanistan, whose government's power extends little beyond Kabul, is ruled by a mixture of NATO forces, warlords and drug kingpins. India, while a fast-emerging economic power, still has huge problems with terrorism and poverty. Bangladesh has gone through 3 years of military rule after 20 of political stagnation and remains one of the most appallingly impoverished places on Earth.

Other than Africa, South Asia is the most depressing place on the planet. Stopping the political turmoil and violence that has gripped the region for the last 40 years has to be one of the top foreign policy goals of the incoming administration.

There is some reason for hope. India and Pakistan seem to have had an improvement in their relationship recently, and their half-century of feuding may be coming to a close. Bangladesh will be holding it's first free election in years next month. India continues to expand economically and the benefits of their growth should finally hit the poor soon enough.

Then theres the shining star of South Asia: Bhutan. The tiny Himalayan nation tucked between India and China is one of the only bright spots in the world. Bhutan was an absolute monarchy up until 2006, when King Jigme Singye Wangchuck abruptly announced that he would abdicate the throne and turn his country into a democracy. This highly laudable move was almost universally opposed by his people, who wanted the absurdly popular king to stay on as their ruler. Nevertheless, the people of Bhutan had their first election earlier this year. While still a relatively impoverished backwater country, Bhutan has made great strides in recent years. New roads and bridges, hydroelectric power plants, communications infrastructure and schools have marked impressive new era in Bhutan. Hopefully, it will prosper in future.

So today we should all mourn for the 100+ people killed in Mumbai, as well as for the thousands killed in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan over the last few years and the million oppressed in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. But at the same time, look to Bhutan. This tiny nation has done great things the last few years and is an encouraging sign that good things really can happen in this world.

The Administration Starts to Take Shape

2008-11-19T21:07:00.000-08:00

With 3 new cabinet members today we are beginning to get a solid look at what the Obama administration will look like.

What we know so far:

Secretary of State: New York Senator Hillary Clinton (not 100% certain, but highly likely)
Attorney General: Fmr. Deputy Attorney General Eric Holder
Secretary of Commerce: New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Fmr. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle
Secretary of Homeland Security: Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano
OMB Director: Congressional Budget Office Director Peter Orszag
Chief of Staff: Rahm Emanuel

Other Top Officials:
Chief Advisor: Strategist David Axelrod
Senior Advisor: Obama Senate COS Peter Rouse
Senior Advisor: Valerie Garrett
Deputy Chief of Staff: Jim Messina
Deputy Chief of Staff: Mona Sutphen
White House Counsel: Attorney Greg Craig (a distant cousin of mine)
Press Secretary: Campaign Communications Director Robert Gibbs

Specualtion still abounds for the 12 cabinet posts not yet announced. The following is a list of those jobs with potential candidates, the bold one is the one I think is most likely to get the job.

Secretary of the Treasury: Timothy Geithner, Sheila Bair, Laura Tyson, Larry Summers
Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates, Jack Reed, Richard Danzig, Chuck Hagel
Secretary of the Interior: Jay Inslee,Brian Schweitzer, Christine Gregoire, Ken Salazar, Jay Inslee, Stephanie Herseth Sandling, Robert Kennedy Jr, Carol Browner
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack, Collin Peterson, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Charlie Stenholm, Tom Buis
Secretary of Labor: Daniel Tarullo ,David Bonior, Linda Chavez-Thompson, Jennifer Granholm, Andy Stern,
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Shriley Franklin, David Gottfried, Federico Pena, Wellington Webb
Secretary of Transportation: Jane Garvey, Jim Oberstar, Ed Rendell, Earl Blumenauer, Steve Heminger
Secretary of Energy: Ernest Moniz, Ed Rendell, Ernest Moniz, Philip Sharp, Earl Blumenauer, Jeff Bingaman, Brian Schweitzer, Jay Inslee,
Secretary of Education: Joel Kline, Jim Hunt, Arne Duncan, George Miller, Linda Darling-Hammond
Secretary of Veteran's Affairs: Tammy Duckworth, Patrick Murphy, Paul Rieckhoff
EPA Administrator: Robert Kennedy Jr., Kathleen McGuinty, Lincoln Chafee, Ed Markey, Christine Gregoire, Jay Inslee, Earl Blumenauer Peter Lehrer, Carol Browner
US Trade Representative: Lael Brainerd, Daniel Tarullo, Cal Dooley

BEGICH WINS!!!!

2008-11-18T20:17:00.000-08:00

Mark Begich (D) has defeated Ted Stevens (R) in the Alaska Senate race

Absolutly Fantastic

The AP reports that Begich now leads by 3,700 votes with just 2,000 left to be counted

Ted Stevens, and his series of tubes, is gone

HOLDER TO BE AG

2008-11-18T15:30:00.000-08:00

We apparently have our first cabinet member.

Eric Holder has accepted the position of Attorney General in the Obama administration. Holder was deputy AG under Bill Clinton, and was a US Attorney and Judge before that. He also was a member of Obama's VP selection committee.

He will be the first black Attorney General

Holder is a good choice. He is well respected in Washington and has been lauded for his performance as deputy AG. It seems likely that for the first time since Janet Reno we will have an AG that doesn't approve of torturing people. Easily the most impressive thing about him is his opposition to the death penalty.

Holder should have an easy time of confirmation, though his approval of the pardon of Marc Rich in 2001 could hurt him.

Shrivelling Sycophants of Selfishness

2008-11-17T14:33:00.000-08:00

I really like alliteration

Sorry about the lack of posts recently, I'm in the process of writing one but its taking longer than I thought and ive been unusually busy recently.

BEGICH TAKES LEAD

2008-11-12T17:54:00.001-08:00

Mark Begich has taken a 3 vote lead over Ted Stevens in the Alaska Senate race. With 10,000 more ballots to be counted it could easily go either way, but a Begich win is increasingly possible at this point.

Nothing could be better than beating Ted Stevens, who over the last 40 years has devoted his career to shoveling as much wasteful federal spending to Alaska as remotely possible. Corrupt, abrasive and deplorable, Stevens also has accepted numerous bribes for pork projects, which, of course, is the reason he is also a convicted felon. Cross your fingers that Mark Begich pulls it out.

Great News: Begich Gains on Stevens

2008-11-12T16:58:00.000-08:00

Perhaps deplorable senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) hasn't been reelected after all. Tens of thousands of uncounted ballots are still being processed, but so far Stevens's 3,000 vote lead has shrunk to 900. Stay tuned, this race may well still turn to the democrats, though i would still bet Stevens holds on.

Dean will Step Down

2008-11-11T14:28:00.000-08:00

Howard Dean, Chairman of the Democratic Party, has announced that he will step down when his term expires in January. Since he became DNC chair in 2005 the Democrats have won the presidency, picked up 52 house seats, 12 senate seats and 9 governorships. His "50 State Strategy", which was designed to make the democrats competitive in every states, has been remarkably successful. The democrats have since picked up heavily republican house seats in places like Idaho, Mississippi, and Alabama. Since he became chair, the democrats have become a truly national party again, with huge gains in the south and west at all levels, a strong presence in the midwest and total dominance of the northeast.
Dean, a doctor, is rumored to be a contender for the job of Secretary of Health and Human Services in Obama's cabinet, and regardless he will still be a big player in American politics.
What is next for the DNC is unclear. It seems that Dean is stepping down in large part to give control of the DNC to the Obama White House. It is unclear if Obama wants to appoint a DNC chair that will be a 2012 campaign manager-in-waiting, a placeholder or a chief fundraiser. There are a lot of names being talked about, including Deputy Campaign Manager Steve Hildebrand, Iowa Campaign Director Paul Tewes, Campaign Manager David Plouffe, 2000 Gore Campaign Manager Donna Brazile and Party Secretary Alice Germond. Hildebrand and Tewes seem to be the early frontrunners. It is also possible that the DNC will revert to having 2 chairs, a figurehead general chairman, and a day-to-day operater. In that case potential General Chairman Candidates might include Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill.

Could The Democrats Still Win Alaska?

2008-11-09T07:47:00.000-08:00

One of Tuesday's biggest surprises came from Alaska. Rep. Don Young (R) and Sen. Ted Stevens (R) had been left for dead before election night. All the polls showed the unpopular and blatantly corrupt duo being defeated. Then, the results came in. It was close but both led throughout the night. Though the race still hasn't officially been called it has become apparent that Young has been reelected. Stevens' on the other hand, may not have had the win that most (including me) thought. Stevens currently holds a 3,300 vote advantage over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D). Politicalwire is reporting, however, that there are enough absentee ballots, and enough of those ballots could conceivably be votes for Begich, that Stevens may still lose. It seems doubtful, however, and Stevens is likely the winner, but there is a glimmer of hope that Stevens, one of the worst examples of everything that is bad about politicians, will still go down.

My Predictions

2008-11-06T14:46:00.000-08:00

Overall, I did pretty well. I underpredicted Obama's margin in the electoral college, he ended up with 364 electoral votes, 26 more than the 338 i predicted. I overpredicted the number of democratic seats in the house. I thought we'd see a 26 seat gain, when its all over it will be closer to 20 or 21, but being off by only 5 or 6 out of 435 seats isn't bad. I only got one senate seat, Alaska, wrong.

Heres all the races I got wrong

PRESIDENT
Indiana: Obama (D) beat McCain (R)
North Carolina: Obama (D) beat McCain (R)

SENATE
Alaska: Stevens (R) apparently beat Begich (D)

HOUSE
Alaska At-Large: Young (R) beat Berkowitz (D)
California 4th: McClintock (R) apparently beat Brown (D)
Florida 25th: Diaz-Balart (R) beat Garcia (D)
Illinois 10th: Kirk (R) beat Seals (D)
Indiana 3rd: Souder (R) beat Montagano (D)
Kansas 2nd: Jenkins (R) beat Boyda (D)
Minnesota 3rd: Paulsen (R) beat Madia (D)
Ohio 1st: Driehaus (D) beat Chabot (R)
Pennsylvania 11th: Kanjorski (D) beat Barletta (R)
Virginia 2nd: Nye (D) beat Drake (R)
Virginia 5th: Perriello (D) apparently beat Goode (R)

Govenor
North Carolina: Perdue (D) beat McCrory (R)

The Results

2008-11-05T14:09:00.001-08:00

Barack Obama has been elected president of the United States with 364 electoral votes and 53% of the popular vote. McCain won 174 electoral votes and 46%. The precise score is not yet known, but the democrats have picked up at least 5 senate seats and 2o house seats.

The Following are State-by-State Results from last night's election (in alphabetical order):

ALABAMA
President: McCain , as expected, wins
Senate: Jeff Sessions easily reelected
House: Bobby Bright (D) picks up the heavily republican seat of retiring congressman Terry Everett (R); Democrat Parker Griffith retains retiring Congressman Bud Cramer's marginal seat (Congressional Delegation: 4R 3D)

ALASKA
President: McCain easily wins Sarah Palin's home state
Senate: In big surprise, republican incumbent and convicted felon Ted Stevens is holding a small lead, race not yet called
House: Embattled Congressman Don Young, who many left for dead months ago, has apparently managed to win reelection, another big surprise (Congressional Delegation: 1R)

ARIZONA
President: Despite some uncertainty, McCain wins his home state
House: Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick wins the seat of retiring Republican Rick Renzi; Prominent Republican Congressman John Shadegg reelected despite tough challenge from Bob Lord; Vulnerable Democratic Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords both reelected (Congressional Delegation: 5D, 3R)

ARKANSAS
President: McCain wins, as expected
Senate: Mark Pryor crushed Green Candidate Rebekah Kennedy (the republicans failed to run a candidate)
House: No house incumbents were even challenged (Congressional Delegation: 3D, 1R)

CALIFORNIA
President: Obama wins California with massive margin
House: 4th district race between McClintock (R) and Brown (D) on knife edge and not yet called (McClintock has 400 vote lead); McNerney (D) reelected in the 11th district; Vulnerable Republicans Lungren, Dreier, Bono, Rohrabacher and Bilbray reelected; (Congressional Delegation: 34D, 18R 1 Too Close to Call)
Props: Prop 1 (Trains) Passes; Prop 2 (Treatment of Animals) Passes; Prop 3 (Children's Hospitals) Passes; Prop 4 (Parental Notification) Fails; Prop 5 (Rehab) Fails; Prop 6 (Police and Penalties) Fails; Prop 7 (Renewable Energy) Fails; Prop 8 (Gay Marriage Ban) Passes; Prop 9 (Victim's Rights) Passes; Prop 10 (Alternative Energy) Fails; Prop 11 (Redistricting) Apparently Passes; Prop 12 (Veteran's) Passes
Sacramento Mayor: Kevin Johnson beats Heather Fargo

COLORADO
President: Obama convincingly wins 04 Bush State
Senate: Mark Udall romps to victory to take retiring Republican Wayne Allard's seat
House: Democrat Betsy Markey beats longtime Democratic Target Marilyn Musgrave in the 4th District; Democrat Jared Polis takes Udall's house seat; Mike Coffman (R) easily takes retiring congressman Tom Tancredo's seat

CONNECTICUT
President: Obama easily wins
House: Democrat Jim Himes beats Republican Incumbent Chris Shays; Freshman Democrats Murphy and Courtney easily win

DELAWARE
President: Obama easily wins Biden's home state
Senate: Biden reelected to the Senate
Governor: Jack Markell (D) elected Governor

FLORIDA
President: Obama, in perhaps the most important result of the night, wins Florida
House: Democrats Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson defeat republican house incumbents in the Orlando Area; Scandal-plagued Democratic Congressman Tim Mahoney loses to Tom Rooney; Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers reelected in South Florida

GEORGIA
President: McCain wins
Senate: Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss forced into runoff with Democrat Jim Martin
House: Vulnerable Democratic Reps Jim Marshall and Jim Barrow both reelected

HAWAII
President: Obama wins a whooping 70% o the vote in his birth state

IDAHO
President: McCain easily wins
Senate: Republican Jim Risch elected to Larry Craig's Senate Seate
House: Walt Minnick (D) defeats unpopular Rep. Bill Sali (R) despite republican nature of the district

ILLINOIS
President: Obama handily wins his home state
Senate: Majority Whip Dick Durin (D) reelected to the senate
House: Democrat Debbie Halvorson easily captures the house seat of retiring republican Jerry Weller; Vulnerable Republicans Roskam, Kirk and Biggert reelected. Aaron Schock (R) wins Ray LaHood's seat; Melissa Bean (D) easily reelected

INDIANA
President: In somewhat of an upset, Obama wins Indiana, the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson
Governor: Republican Governor Mitch Daniels, once thought to be vulnerable, easily wins reelection
House: Republican Mark Souder wins reelection; First-term Democrats Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill, and Joe Donnelly all easily reelected

IOWA
President: Iowa switches from red to blue, Obama wins easily
Senate: Democrat Tom Harkin wins easily
House: All incumbents reelected

KANSAS
President: McCain wins easily
Senate: Republican Pat Roberts wins reelection
House: First-term Democrat Nancy Boyda loses reelection to Republican Lynn Jenkins; Dennis Moore (D) reelected

KENTUCKY
President: McCain wins
Senate: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell defeats Bruce Lunsford
House: Brett Guthrie (R) wins retiring Rep. Ron Lewis (R)'s seat; Fmr. Congresswomen Anne Northup (R) unsuccessful in comeback attempt against Rep. John Yarmuth (D)

LOUISIANA
President: McCain wins
Senate: Mary Landrieu, the only vulnerable senate democrat, is reelected
House: Republican Bill Cassidy beats Democrat Don Cazayoux, with the help of a spoiler; Chuck Boustany reelected in surprising landslide; 2nd and 4th districts head to December runoff

MAINE
President: Obama wins all 4 of Maine's electoral votes
Senate: Despite aggressive challenge from Democrat Tom Allen, Senator Susan Collins (R) easily wins reelection
House: Chellie Pingree elected to replace Tom Allen in the house

MARYLAND
President: Obama wins in a walk
House: In a huge surprise, Democrat Frank Kratovil leads Republican Andy Harris in the heavily republican 1st district. Kratovil has a 900 vote lead, but the race is too close to call.

MASSACHUSETTS
President: Obama easily wins the most liberal state in the country
Senate: John Kerry easily reelected

MICHIGAN
President: Obama wins by 16 points in what should be a swing state
Senate: Carl Levin (D) easily reelected
House: Democrats Mark Schauer and Gary Peters unseat Republican Incumbents in the Detroit Suburbs

MINNESOTA
President: Obama
Senate: In one of the closest races in the nation senator Norm Coleman (R) leads comedian Al Franken (D) by 400 votes. A recount is underway.
House: Controversial Congresswomen Michele Bachmann surprisingly wins reelection; Republican Erik Paulsen wins retiring congressman Jim Ramstad (R)'s seat

MISSISSIPPI
President: McCain
Senate: Thad Cochran easily wins, Roger Wicker, a senator since last December, reelected in a close race
House: Special Election winner Travis Childers wins; Gregg Harper (R) takes retiring congressman Chip Pickering (R)'s seat

MISSOURI
President: McCain pulled out Missouri with a tiny polarity
Governor: Democrats Jay Nixon easily elected Governor
House: Republicans pull out wins in the competitive 6th and 9th districts.

MONTANA
President: John McCain won here by a small margin
Senate: Max Baucus destroyed a gadfly to win another term in office
Governor: Uber-popular Governor Brian Schweitzer reelected

NEBRASKA
President: McCain wins all 5 of the states electoral votes
Senate: Mike Johanns (R) has defeated Scott Kleeb to take Republican Chuck Hagel's senate seat
House: Lee Terry (R) barely reelected in Omaha

NEVADA
President: Obama wins Nevada big
House: Democrat Dina Titus defeats Republican incumbent Jon Porter; Dean Heller reelected

NEW HAMPSHIRE
President: Obama wins by 10 points
Senate: Fmr. Governor Jeanne Shaheen has defeated Republican Incumbent John Sununu in one of the marquee senate races of this year
House: First-term democrats Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes reelected

NEW JERSEY
President: Obama with a significant margin
Senate: Somewhat vulnerable senator Frank Lautenberg (D) wins reelection
House: Democrat John Adler narrowly wins retiring Republican Jim Saxton's seat; Republican Leonard Lance barely holds on to retiring Republican Mike Ferguson's seat; Vulnerable republicans LoBiondo, Smith and Garrett reelected

NEW MEXICO
President: Obama wins easily
Senate: Tom Udall (D) crushes Steve Pearce (R) to take retiring Republican Pete Domenici's seat
House: Democrats sweep the New Mexico delegation, with Martin Heinrich and Harry Teague picking up republican seats and Ben Lujan holding Tom Udall's house seat

NEW YORK
President: Obama takes Clinton Country
House: Democrats Mike McMahon, Eric Massa and Dan Maffei pick up republican seats; Vulnerable Dems John Hall, Kirsten Gillibrand and Mike Arcuri reelected. Republican Chris Lee win retiring republican Tom Reynolds' seat

NORTH CAROLINA
President: Not yet called, but Barack Obama seems likely to win here
Senate: Kay Hagan (D) unseats Liddy Dole (R) in a hugely important race
Governor: Bev Perdue (D) defeats Pat McCrory (R)
House: Larry Kissell (D) easily beats incumbent Republican Robin Hayes; Heath Shuler reelected

NORTH DAKOTA
President: Despite predicted close race, McCain easily wins
Governor: Governor John Hoeven cruises to reelection

OHIO
President: Obama's early win here, the first in a big swing state, sealed his victory
House: Democrats Steve Driehaus and John Boccieri pick up republican seats. Steve Stivers (R) wins the 15th; Space reelected in the 18th; Republicans Austria, Neuhardt, Schmidt, Tiberi and LaTourette win

OKLAHOMA
President: McCain wins this deep red states
Senate: Jim Inhofe easily reelected

OREGON
President: Obama
Senate: Knife Edge race between Jeff Merkley (D) and Gordon Smith(R) lots of votes left to be counted, but its looking like Merkley will win in the end
House: Kurt Schrader has been elected to replace retiring congresswoman Darlene Hooley. Both are Dmeocrats

PENNSYLVANIA
President: In one of the most decisive calls of the night, Obama takes Pennsylvania
House: Kathy Dahlkemper knocks off Phil English in Erie; Glenn Thompson holds retiring congressman John Peterson's seat for the GOP; Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents Altmire, Carney, Kanjorski and Murtha reelected; Vulnerable republicans Jim Gerlach and Tim Murphy reelected

RHODE ISLAND
President: The ocean state goes overwhelmingly for Obama
Senate: Jack Reed reelected, he is a top contender Secretary of Defense

SOUTH CAROLINA
President: South Carolina goes McCain
Senate: Lindsay Graham, McCain's best friend in the Senate, is reelected
House: Rep. Henry Brown (R) fends off a strong challenge from Linda Ketner (D)

SOUTH DAKOTA
President: McCain wins underwhelming
Senate: Senator Tim Johnson, who has had big health problems, is reelected

TENNESSEE
President: McCain takes the volunteer state
Senate: Senator Lamar Alexander (R) crushes Bob Tuke (D)
House: Phil Roe elected to succeed Rep. David Davis, who Roe beat in the Republican primary

TEXAS
President: McCain takes the 2nd biggest electoral prize
Senate: John Cornyn reelected
House: Pete Olson (R) takes back Tom DeLay's old district, beating Rep. Nick Lampson; Vulnerable Republicans McCaul and Culberson reelected, Ciro Rodriquez wins

UTAH
President: McCain easily wins one of the most republican states in the country
Governor: Governor Huntsman (R) decimates Bob Springmeyer (D)

VERMONT
President: Obama's first win of the night
Governor: Jim Douglas reelected, Democrat Gaye Symington and Progressive Anthony Pollina fight for second place

VIRGINIA
President: In a decisive win, Obama takes Virginia
Senate: Beloved Fmr. Governor Mark Warner (D) destroys Jim Gilmore (R) by 30 percent to pick up the seat of retiring republican John Warner
House: In one of the most shocking house races of the night, thought-to-be-safe Congressman Virgil Goode is trailing Tom Perreiello by less than a hundred votes and has apparently lost, though a recount is underway; In another big surprise Glenn Nye (D) unseats Congresswomen Thelma Drake (R); Gerry Connolly (D) easily wins the Northern Virginia seat of retiring retiring republican Tom Davis (R); Frank Wolf (R) is reelected

WASHINGTON
President: Obama takes reliably democratic Washington
Governor: This race was expected to be almost dead even, but Governor Christine Gregoire has comfortably beat Fmr. State Senator Dino Rossi
House: Though its not yet official, it appears that Rep. Dave Reichert (R) has, for the second time, narrowly beaten Darcy Burner (D)

WEST VIRGINIA
President: McCain
Senate: Jay Rockefeller (D) cruises to reelection
Governor: Governor Joe Manchin (D) reelected in a cake walk
House: Perennial target Shelley Moore Capito (R) holds on

WISCONSIN
President: In 2004 this was the closest state. This time, it has gone comfortably for Obama
House: Steve Kagen (D) reelected

WYOMING
President: McCain wyoms to victory
Senate: Both Barrasso (R) and Enzi (R) reelected with over 70% of the vote
House: Cynthia Lummis (R) elected to replace retiring congresswoman Barbara Cubin (R)

Looking Back at Last Night

2008-11-05T13:53:00.000-08:00

Yestarday's election will probably go down in history as one of the best in history.

Over the next few hours and days i plan to post lots of analysis, results, and my thoughts on the future. I'll also have my scorecard on how accurately i predicted this election (I can tell you right now, i was wayyyyyy off on the House of Representatives)

Congress

2008-11-04T21:40:00.000-08:00

A lot of surprising results for congress, and while I couldn't possibly post anything comprehensive right now, here are some races that caught my eye:

North Carolina Senate: Other than the Presidency, my favorite result of the night. Kay Hagan is fantastic

Virginia 5th: In a huge shock, Virgil Goode is almost tied with his challenger, Tom Perriello. No one thought this would be this close, but Perriello actually leads by 1,000 votes, and apparently has won this seat. Goode is terrible, one of the worst of the right wing of the republican party. I've always despised the man. If this continues, it will be a great thing

New York 24th: Another big surprise. Mike Arcuri was expected to easily win his reelection race, but he leads by just 1,000 votes. How this happened I dont know but its a huge surprise.

New Mexico 1, 2 and 3: The democrats have swept the New Mexico Delegation. Before this election New Mexico's 5 member congressional delegation (2 Senator+3 Reps) was republican majority, 3-2. Now its democrats 5-0. Udall won the senate seat, Martin Heinrich picked up CD1, Harry Teague, in an upset, won heavily republican CD2, and Ben Lujan defended Udall's CD3.

Pennsylvania 3rd: Kathy Dahlkemper's win of this district is one that made me really happy, mainly because i predicted she would win both the primary and general months ago and it ended up happening.

Colorado 4th: It's always good when an uber-conservativ bigot loses (conservative in the Christian right sense, there really needs to be a separate word for real conservatives and social conservatives who aren't really "conservatives".) Marilyn Musgrave, in addition to being the most rabidly anti-gay member of congress, has a rather egregious lack of intelligence. Winning this seat is nice

There are loads of others to talk about, and ill have a comprehensive election result analysis in the next few days.

President-Elect Barack Obama

2008-11-04T20:41:00.000-08:00

I could not possibly portray my emotions right now properly. This is the greatest day of my life.

IT'S OVER!

2008-11-04T18:30:00.000-08:00

BARACK OBAMA WINS

NBC HAS CALLED OHIO FOR BARACK OBAMA

McCAIN CANNOT WIN WITHOUT OHIO

BARACK OBAMA IS THE PRESIDENT-ELECT

Obama Victory Likely

2008-11-04T18:18:00.000-08:00

Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. All he needs to do is win one of the following states: Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida. Hes up in 3 (Florida, Ohio and North Carolina) and narrowly behind in two (Virginia, Indiana). The two hes behind in are both trending towards him. The chances of him loosing all of these states is very low, so Obama is almost certainly the winner.

Boy was I wrong

2008-11-04T18:07:00.001-08:00

Mark Souder has easily beaten Mike Montagano. I had predicted a Montagano win and was very wrong.

Suanne Kosmas has won though, the first pickup of the night

HAGAN WINS; OBAMA TAKES PENNSYLVANIA

2008-11-04T17:23:00.000-08:00

Kay Hagan, my favorite senate candidate this year, has unseated Liddy Dole. Absolutly fantasitc. It's also looking like Obama has won Pennsylvania. Beautiful

First Results

2008-11-04T15:44:00.000-08:00

Obama takes Vermont, McCain takes Kentucky.

Governor Mitch Daniels reelected in Indiana.

Mark Warner has been elected to replace John Warner in the Senate

I'm not nervous

2008-11-04T15:11:00.000-08:00

I've been confident that Obama will win this race for a while now, but ive always though that when push comes to shove id be pretty nervous tonight. But im not, in fact with no results coming in yet im doneright bored (though results are coming now from IN and KY so im getting excited.) Im confident were going to win, and this will be a great night.

First polls close, huge turnout projected

2008-11-04T14:21:00.000-08:00

The first polls in Indiana and Kentucky have closed. Huge turnout projected as long lines are abundant throughout the country. Start watching Marion County, Indiana. If Obama wins in a blow out there then he may well carry Indiana. If he only wins it by a small margin, then Indiana will probably go McCain. We wont really know that much untill polls close in Lake County in an hour.

One Hour

2008-11-04T13:14:00.000-08:00

Polls close in one hour in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Indiana, of course, is a key swing state, but Lake County, the only democratic stronghold in the state, wont report until 4:00 (7 Eastern), so we wont know anything about the presidential race for awhile. We will, however, begin seeing results from the 3rd Congressional District, where Democrat Mike Montagano has a shot at taking out Republican Congressman Mark Souder. We will also see results from the Kentucky 3rd and the Indiana 8th and 9th, though the democratic incumbents will probably be reelected in those seats.

It's Here

2008-11-04T12:58:00.000-08:00

Its election Day. Im excited

For those of you looking for results, CNN has the best online results: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/

I'll be watching MSNBC, but will keep my eye on C-SPAN

I will also be posting on this blog throughout the night, so check back.

GO VOTE

2008-11-04T06:26:00.001-08:00

For those of you who can, get out there and cast a vote, no excuses.

I'd give anything to be able to vote this year.

Correction

2008-11-03T22:18:00.003-08:00

On my long list of prediction i forgot the Governorship of West Virginia. Democratic Governor Joe Manchin will crush Russ Weeks to win a second term

OBAMA WINS DIXVILLE NOTCH

2008-11-03T21:23:00.001-08:00

In the first returns of the 2008 election Barack Obama has won the small New Hampshire town of Dixville notch 15 to 6. Dixville Notch traditionally casts its votes at midnight and reports several minutes latter (for the full story: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch) No democrat has won Dixville Notch since 1968. Obama's win there hopefully will kickstart a great election night.

Part 4: The Presidency

2008-11-03T18:32:00.000-08:00

Barack Obama will be elected president of the United States with 338 electoral votes and 53-55% of the popular vote. John McCain will have 200 electoral votes and 44-46% of the vote, with Ralph Nader, Bob Barr, Cynthia McKinney and Alan Keyes combined at 1-3% of the vote.

Following are my state by state projections, the number after the state is the number of electoral votes, the number after the candidate is the predicted margin of victory. In the map above dark state are states I'm sure will go to one side, light states are ones i could be wrong about.

State-by-State (Swing States in Bold)
Alabama(9): McCain+19
Alaska(3): McCain +20
Arizona(10): McCain +6
Arkansas(6): McCain +15
California(55): Obama +23
Colorado(9): Obama +10
Connecticut(7): Obama +22
Delaware(3): Obama +29
District of Columbia(3): Obama +84
Florida(27): Obama +2
Georgia(15): McCain +10
Hawaii(4): Obama +22
Idaho(4): McCain +20
Illinois(21): Obama +28
Indiana(11): McCain +1
Iowa(7): Obama +11
Kansas(6): McCain +18
Kentucky(8): McCain +10
Louisiana(9): McCain +16
Maine(4): Obama +16
Maryland(10): Obama +20
Massachusetts(12): Obama +28
Michigan(17): Obama +8
Minnesota(10): Obama +10
Mississippi(6): McCain +14
Missouri(11): McCain +0
Montana(3): McCain +3
Nebraska(5): McCain +14
Nevada(5): Obama +2
New Hampshire(4): Obama +15
New Jersey(15): Obama +17
New Mexico(5): Obama +11
New York(31): Obama +27
North Carolina(15): McCain +1
North Dakota(3): McCain +6
Ohio(20): Obama +1
Oklahoma(7): McCain +24
Oregon(7): Obama +16
Pennsylvania(21): Obama +6
Rhode Island(4): Obama +36
South Carolina(8): McCain +18
South Dakota(3): McCain +8
Tennessee(11): McCain +21
Texas(34): McCain +25
Utah(5): McCain +35
Vermont(3): Obama +34
Virginia(13): Obama +7
Washington(11): Obama +14
West Virginia(5): McCain+9
Wisconsin(10): Obama +9
Wyoming(3): McCain +18

Predictions Part 3 Congress Summary

2008-11-03T17:54:00.000-08:00

This is part 3, a summary of the congressional predictions of the last two posts

SENATE
Democrats: 57 or 58 (+7)
Republicans: 43 or 42 (-7)
(its 56 or 57 because its unclear if Joe Lieberman will be caucusing as a democrat or a republican next year)

Democratic Gains
Alaska (Begich beats Stevens)
Colorado (Udall beat Schaffer)
New Hampshire (Shaheen beats Sununu)
New Mexico (Udall beats Pearce)
North Carolina (Hagan beats Dole)
Oregon (Markley beats Smith)
Virginia (Warner beats Gilmore)

My 7 seat predicted gain is definitely the minimum possible gained seats, in fact i would predict at least one other will fall to the democrats, whether it be Minnesota, Kentucky, Georgia or Mississippi.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Democrats: 262 (+26)
Republicans: 173 (-26)

Democratic Gains
Alabama 2nd
Alaska At-Large
Arizona 1st
California 4th
Colorado 4th
Connecticut 4th
Florida 8th
Florida 24th
Florida 25th
Idaho 1st
Illinois 10th
Illinois 11th
Indiana 3rd
Louisiana 4th
Maryland 1st
Michigan 7th
Michigan 9th
Minnesota 3rd
Minnesota 6th
Nevada 3rd
New Jersey 3rd
New Mexico 1st
New Mexico 2nd
New York 13th
New York 25th
New York 29th
North Carolina 8th
Ohio 16th
Pennsylvania 3rd
Virginia 11th

Republican Gains
Florida 16th
Louisiana 6th
Pennsylvania 11th
Texas 22nd

Election Predictions Part 2: Montana to Wyoming

2008-11-03T13:15:00.000-08:00

This is part 2 of my predictions for tomorrow. Part 3, the presidential race and congressional numbers, will be posted in a few hours.

MONTANA
Senate (Baucus, D) - Max Baucus will easily win reelection over gadfly republican Bob Kelleher. Democratic Hold

Governor (Schweizter, D) - Brian Schweizter, one of the rising stars in democratic politics, will easily win reelection over Republican State Senator Roy Brown. Democratic Hold

NEBRASKA
Senate (Hagel, R) - Republican Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns will easily defeat Democrat Scott Kleeb to replace Chuck Hagel in the Senate. Republican Hold

CD2 (Terry, R) - Democratic Jim Esch had make a great run at this Omaha-based seat, but incumbent Lee Terry will be reelected. Republican Hold

NEVADA
CD2 (Heller, R) - Dean Heller will win a second term with an unimpressive victory over Jill Derby. Republican Hold

CD3 (Porter, R) Jon Porter has had a series of tough races in this Las Vegas suburbs district. This year is his toughest challenge yet. The democrats are running Dina Titus, a former State Senate President and the Democrat's 2006 gubernatorial nominee. This will be one of the closest races in the country, but Titus will beat Porter. Democratic Pick Up

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Governor (Lynch, D) - John Lynch is one of the most beloved governors in the country and will romp Republican Joe Kenney to win a 3rd term. Democratic Hold

CD1 (Shea-Porter, D) - No result in 2006 was more shocking than Shea-Poter's defeat of Congressman Jeb Bradley. She beat an establishment democrat in the primary and was left for dead by the national party. She then ran an almost totally unfunded campaign but still managed to beat the formidable incumbent. This year, Bradley is back for a rematch against Shea-Porter. Shea-Porter will be reelected. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Hodes, D) - First Term Congressman Paul Hodes will easily beat conservative talk show host Jennifer Mann. Democratic Hold

NEW JERSEY
Senate (Lautenberg, D) - This seat has given republicans headaches. Lautenberg is very vulnerable and could be beaten, but the republicans failed to find a good candidate. In fact, their first candidate had a stroke and their second dropped out. They finally settled on Dick Zimmer, a former congressman. Lautenberg will win reelection. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Saxton, R) - After longtime Congressman Jim Saxton announced his retirement and republican failed to find a top tier candidate in this marginal southern New Jersey seat, most expected that Democratic State Senator John Adler would have an easy time winning the seat. Chris Myers, the republican candidate, has run a solid campaign, however, and the race appears to be tied going into election night. Adler will win. Democratic Pick Up

CD5 (Garrett, R) - Some democrats think that Blind Rabbi Dennis Shulman poses a challenge to conservative incumbent Scott Garrett. He won't. Republican Hold

CD7 (Ferguson, R) - After fighting a tough race against Linda Stender in this Suburban district two years ago, Congressman Mike Ferguson is retiring. Stender is running again for the democrats and the republicans are running State Senator Leonard Lance. Both Lance and Stender have run solid campaigns and it's very difficult to predict a winner, but my gut tells me Lance wins this one. Republican Hold

NEW MEXICO
Senate (Domenici, R) - Pete Domenici, a senator since the 70s, is retiring this year. He will be replaced by Democrat Tom Udall, who is a hugely popular congressman. His opponent, Congressman Steve Pearce, is too conservative for this swing state and has an off-putting demeanor. Udall has held a double digit lead since entering the race. Democratic Pick Up

CD1 (Wilson, R) - Prominent congresswoman Heather Wilson ran for the senate this year and lost to Pearce in the primary. 2 years ago she was barely reelected in this 50/50 Albuquerque-based district. Both sides have come up with superb candidate, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White for the republicans and City Councilor Martin Heinrich for the Democrats. This will be a kinfe-edge race, but Heinrich will be on top. Democratic Pick Up

CD2 (Pearce, R) - The 2nd district takes up the low 2/3rds of New Meixico and has been represented for 6 years by Steve Pearce, who is running for senate this year. This district should be republican, but Ed Tinsley, their nominee, has been a weak candidate, and Democrat Harry Teague has run a superb campaign. Teague, a moderate, will win. Democratic Pick Up

CD3 (Udall, D) - Democrat Ben Lujan will easily defeat Republican Dan East to take Tom Udall's heavily democratic Northern New Mexico seat. Democratic Hold

NEW YORK
CD13 (Fossella, R) - One day, someone will turn what happened in this seat to a soap opera. The New York 13th is living proof that politics is absolutely fascinating. Republican Vito Fossella, who has represented this Staten Island seat for years, was arrested earlier this year for driving drunk after visiting his mistress and their illegitimate child (he has a real wife and kids in NY, by the way.) He promptly dropped out of his race for reelection. He was replaced by multimillionaire Frank Powers. Then, Powers's estranged son jumped in the race as a libertarian. That was a big problem for Powers-the-Father, as the two have the same name. As if the race hadn't taken enough weird twist and turns already the elder Powers died in June. The republican party then had a mini-war to replace him. In the end they settled on Bob Straniere, though he was such a weak candidate that they tried to get the disgraced Fossella to come back and run again. The democrats, meanwhile, nominated Respected NYC Councilor Mike McMahon, who will crush Straniere by a big margin. Democratic Pick Up

CD19 (Hall, D) - Freshman congressman and former rock star John Hall will easily win reelection over republican Kieran Michael Lalor in this . Democratic Hold

CD20 (Gillibrand, D) - Kirsten Gillibrand represents a republican leaning district in southern New York. She is being challenged Fmr. State Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell, who has run a solid campaign and has been e prolific fundraiser. Gillibrand will be reelected, but by a smaller than expected margin. Democratic Hold

CD21 (McNulty, D) - Democrat Paul Tonko will easily beat Republican Jim Burhmaster to replace Mike McNulty in this Albany-based district. Democratic Hold

CD24 (Arcuri, D) - Mike Arcuri won an epic race in this Utica-based district 2 years ago. THis time around he will beat republican Rich Hanna easily. Democratic Hold

CD25 (Walsh, R) - Fmr. Congressional Aide Dan Maffei will easily snatch this Syracuse seat for the democrats. Long time representative Jim Walsh is stepping down. Democratic Pick Up

CD26 (Reynolds, R) - The 26th, based in the suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, has long been high profile republican Tom Reynolds's district. Reynolds is retiring this year after barely winning in 2006. This is one of the few places where the democrats have had problems. The primary was supposed to be between 04/06 nominee Jack Davis and Iraq War Vet Jon Powers, but a little-known attorney, Alice Kryzan managed to win. Kryzan is an unattractive general election candidate, but her main problem is New York's bizarre election law. NY has a lot of parties, and they can co-nominate candidates. The Working Families Party had already nominated Powers, and he is still on their ballot line. The potential of split votes between Powers and Kryzan make a Lee win likely. Republican Hold

CD29 (Kuhl, R) - This is a solidly republican district, but Randy Kuhl has never been popular. His personal problems have lead to 2 unimpressive wins. This time, he will lose to Eric Massa. (an editorial note: This is one of the worst races in the country, Kuhl is awful, but Massa is running on a ridiculous anti-trade platform, either one will make a terrible congressman) Democratic Pick Up

NORTH CAROLINA
Senate (Dole, R) - Liddy Dole has been a leading republican for thirty years. Her reelection tot he senate, however, is far from certain. Dole has been largely removed from the senate recently, with few bills to her credit. She also has been absent from North Carolina, a newspaper investigation revealed shes spent only 10 days in North Carolina in the last few years. Dole is facing an aggressive challenge from State Senator Kay Hagan. The race has been very close, but in the end Hagan will win. Dole tried a last minute strategy trying to portray Hagan as an atheist, which will hugely backfire. Democratic Pick Up

Governor (Easley, D) - Popular incumbent Mike Easley has been term limited out of the governorship. The democrats have nominated Bev Perdue, the LG, and the republican have nominated Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. McCrory will narrowly win. Republican Pick Up

CD08 (Hayes, R) - 2 years ago Larry Kissell came within a few hundred votes of unseating Robin Hayes in this suburban Charlotte district, despite being ignored by the national demcratic party. This time around, the part has heavily invested in Kissell and this race, and he has a superb, well funded campaign this time around. Hayes has grown unpopular, as his pro-trade stances are unpopular in this district. His problems were compounded when he said "liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God." His comment shave had big backlash and he will lose to Kissell handily. Democratic Pick Up

CD11 (Shuler, D) One term congressman Heath Shuler would have a tough reelection in this conservative Appalachia district was it not for the erratic behavior of his opponent. Carl Mumpower, a city councilor, suspended his campaign when the republican county committees refused to sign a loyalty pledge. Shuler will win easily. Democratic Hold

NORTH DAKOTA
Governor (Hoeven, R) - Hugely popular governor John Hoeven will cruise to reelection. Republican Hold

OHIO
CD1 (Chabot, R) - Steve Chabot represents a battleground Cincinnati district. He narowly was reelected in 2006 and is facing a tough challenge from Steve Driehaus this year. This is a toss up race, but Chabot will narrowly pull out a win. Republican Hold

CD2 (Schmidt, R) - Jean Schmidt, first elected in a 2005 special election, represents one of the most republican district in the country. Yet she is so abrasive and unpopular that she has never won by more than a few percentage points. This year she is facing a rematch with her 2006 opponent, Victoria Wulsin. Schmidt will win, solely because of the republican nature of the district.

CD7 (Hobson, R) - Long time congressman Dave Hobson is retiring form his rural central Ohio district. Steve Austria, a State Senator, will replace him, though his opponent, Sharon Neauhardt, has run a strong campaign. Republican Hold

CD11 (Vacant) - Marcia Fudge will cruise to an easy win to replace Congresswomen Stephanie Tubbs Jones, who died in August. This central Cleveland district is massively democratic. Democratic Hold

CD14 (LaTourette, R) - Steve LaTourette faced a stronger than usual challenge in this Northeastern Ohio district from Bill O'Neill, a judge. LaTourette will win. Republican Hold

CD15 (Pryce, R) - After narrowly pulling out a win in one of the closest races of 2006 congresswomen Deborah Pryce is retiring. The race to replace her between democrat Mary Jo Kilroy and republican Steve Stivers has been contentious. Stivers will win, barely. Republican Hold

CD16 (Regula, R) - After 30 years in the house 80 year old incumbent Ralph Regula is retiring from this Canton-Based district. He will be replaced by democrats John Boccieri, who will beat unimpressive republican Kirk Shcuring. Look for Boccieri to become a rising star, perhaps a senator or governor one day. Democratic Pick Up.

CD18 (Space, D) - Zack Space won this heavily republican southeastern Ohio district by a shockingly big 20 point margin in 2006. His win this time around wont be as big, but he will still beat Republican Bill Dailey. Democratic Hold

OKLAHOMA
Senate (Inhofe, R) - Andrew Rice is a solid Democartic Challenger, but Jim Inhofe will be reelected. Republican Hold

OREGON
Senate (Smith, R) - Gordon Smith is a well-liked low-key moderate. He is not well liked enough, however, to win reelection this year. Oregon is going big for Obama, and State House Speaker Jeff Merkley has run a solid campaign against Smith. Merkley will win, but look for Smith to run for Governor in 2010. Democratic Pick Up

CD5 (Hooley, D) - When Darlene Hooley announced her retirement form this 50/50 Portland Suburbs seat this was seen as a toss up race. Then it was revealed that the republican nominee, staunchly "pro-life" Mike Erickson, paid for a woman he had impregnated to get an abortion. Democrat Kurt Schrader will win easily. Democratic Hold

PENNSYLVANIA
CD3 (English, R) - Phil English usually wins an easy reelection in this marginal Erie-based seat. He is a well-liked moderate and a good politican. This year, however, will be different. With the national wind at the democrat's back and with Kathy Dahlkemper running a good campaign, English will be defeated. Democratic Pick Up

CD4 (Altmire, D) - Jason Altmire was a surprise winner two years ago in this Pittsburgh area seat. Melissa Hart, the rising star republican Altmire beat in 2006, is running again. The centrist Altmire will be reelected. Democratic Hold

CD5 (Peterson, R) - Republican Glenn Thompson will defeat Democrat Mike McCracken to replace John Peterson in this central Pennsylvania District. Republican Hold

CD6 (Gerlach, R) - Jim Gerlach was left for dead in 2006 before running a marvelous campaign and being surprisingly reelected. His formidable political skills scared off potential challngers and the democrats were left with 3rd-tier challenger Bob Roggio. Gerlach will easily win. Republican Hold

CD7 (Sestak, D) - Joe Sestak, a navy admiral, comfortably won 2 years ago. He will do so again, beating Craig Williams in this Suburban Philadelphia district. Democratic Hold

CD8 (Murph, D) - Patrick Murphy, a young Iraq War veteran, barely won this seat 2 years ago. This time, he will be reelected easily over Tom Manion in this Bucks County district. Democratic Hold

CD10 (Carney, D) - Centrist Chris Carney won two years after his opponent's mistresses called the police when he tried to choke her. Carney is facing a tough reelection fight against Chris Hackett in this conservative Northeastern Pennsylvania district. Carney will narrowly win, but is unlikely to keep this seat for long. Democratic Hold

CD11 (Kanjorski, D) - One of the more surprising developments of this campaign has been the vulnerability of Paul Kanjorski. His opponent, Lou Barletta, is well known as mayor of a local town and has run an aggressive campaign. Kanjorski is a curmudgeonly old incumbent and will lose to Barletta in a rare gain for the GOP. Republican Pick Up

CD12 (Murtha, D) - Veteran Congressman John Murtha was cruising to reelection untill a few weeks ago when he implied all of his constituents were racist rednecks. Since then his challenger, William Russell, has gained in the polls. Murtha will win, but by a weak margin. Democratic Hold

CD18 (Murph, R) - Congressman Tim Murph has been under fire for some ethical problems recently, but should hold on against Steve O'Donnell. Republican Hold

RHODE ISLAND
Senate (Reed, D) - Senator Jack Reed, who is at the top of Obama's shortlist for Secretary of Defense, will crush Bob Tingle by a colossal margin. Democratic Hold

SOUTH CAROLINA
Senate (Graham, R) - Senator Lindsay Graham will beat Bob Conley by a big margin. Republican Hold

CD1 (Brown, R) - Who would have though that a gay liberal millionaire woman would make a competitive run at a seat in South Carolina. Linda Ketner has run a strong campaign against the lackluster incumbent, Henry Brown. Ketner has a shot at victory, but Brown will probably win. Republican Hold

SOUTH DAKOTA
Senate (Johnson, D) - The Republicans really wanted to make a run at Tim Johnson, who is in poor health. They weren't able to recruit a good candidate, however, and Johnson will easily beat Joel Dykstra, Democratic Hold

TENNESSEE
Senate (Alexander, R) - High ranking republican Lamamr Alexander will easily defeat Democrat Bob Tuke. Republican Hold

CD1 (Davis, R) - After beating incumbent David Davis in the primary, Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe will crush Bob Russell and head to Washington. Republican Hold

TEXAS
Senate (Cornyn, R) - The democrats missed an opportunity here. John Cornyn is unpopular and Rick Noriega is a strong candiate, but national democrats failed to come through for him. Cornyn will win with an unimpressive margin. Republican Hold

CD7 (Culberson, R) - Democrat Mike Skelly has made a great run at John Culberson, but Culberson will win in this very republican district. Republican Hold

CD10 (McCaul, R) - Despite the republican nature of this district Mike McCaul has won by unimpressive margins two election in a row. He got a huge break in February when a strong challenger was defeated in the primary. McCaul will win reelection, but by another unimpressive margin. Republican Hold

CD22 (Lampson, D) - Nick Lampson won Tom DeLay's old district in 2006 when a technicality forced the Republican Candidate off the ballot. This district is overwhelmingly republican, and Lampson will lose reelection to Pete Olson. Republican Pick Up

CD23 (Rodriquez) - Ciro Rodriquez was elected in an upset in a December 06 runoff after this district was redrawn by the Supreme Court. Rodriquez will face a tough challenge from Lyle Larson, but will win. Democratic Hold

UTAH
Governor (Huntsman, R) - Hugely popular Governor Jon Huntsman will crush democrat Bob Springmeyer. Republican Hold

CD3 (Cannon, R) - After beating incumbent Chris Cannon in the primary a few months ago Jason Chaffetz will easily be elected to congress. Republican Hold

VERMONT
Governor (Douglas, R) - Jim Douglas has been well liked as governor of Vermont and has 3 times won elections solidly. He is facing a tough challenge this year from Gaye Symington, speaker of the state house. Douglas will win, but by a small margin. Look for Symington to run again when Douglas retires. Republican Hold

VIRGINIA
Senate (Warner, R) - Incumbent JOHN Warner, a well respected long time Senator, is retiring. He will be replaced by hugely popular democratic ex-governor MARK Warner, who will crush former republican governor Jim Gilmore in a landslide. Democratic Pick Up

CD2 (Drake, R) - Thelma Drake is facing a tough challenge from Glenn Nye, but will win reelection. Republican Hold

CD5 (Goode, R) - Virgil Goode is facing a surprisingly tough race against Tom Perriello. Goode will win. Republican Hold

CD10 (Wolf, R) - Longtime incumbent Frank Wolf is well respected and immensely popular. He represents an increasingly democratic district, however, and will probably be the last republican to represent this district. He will beat Judy Feder. Republican Hold

CD11 (Davis, R) - Tom Davis, a very influential republican, is retiring this year. He will be replaced by a democrat, Gerry Connolly. This district is at the tip of northern virginia, and has gone from republican to democratic in the last few years. Democratic Pick Up

WASHINGTON
Governor (Gregoire, D) - Christine Gregoire beat Dino Rossi 4 years ago by a few hundred votes, the closest gubernatorial race in history. This year will also be very close, this race is way way too close to call, but Obama will win Washington big and i'll give Gregoire a tiny edge. Democratic Hold

WEST VIRGINIA
Senate (Rockefeller, D) - Jay Rockefeller will crush Jay Wolfe. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Capito, R) - Popular moderate Shelley Moore Capito is usually a democratic target, and is facing her strongest challenge yet from Anne Barth, an aide to Robert Byrd. Barth will come close, but Capito will win. Republican Hold

WISCONSIN
CD8 (Kagen, D) - Steve Kagen beat John Gard by a narrow margin in this Green Bay based district two years ago. This year he will beta Gard by a bigger margin. Democratic Hold

WYOMING
Senate (Barrasso, R and Enzi, R) -Both Wyoming seats are up this year due to the death of Craig Thomas. Both will be held by the Republicans.

CDAt-Large (Cubin, R) - After a tough fight 2 years ago, Barbara Cubin is retiring. She will probably be replaced by Fmr. State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, though democrat Gary Trauner has a chance. Republican Hold.

Predictions Part 1: Alabama to Missouri

2008-10-30T17:47:00.000-07:00

Over the next few days i will be posting my predictions on the results of Tuesdays elections. The first 2 will be state by state, every senate and gubernatorial election and all the close house races. Then will be a purely numeric prediction for the house and senate, and finally my prediction on the Presidential Race. This is the first installment, look for the second latter tonight or tomorrow. Please excuse the egregious grammar, ive been in phoenix this weekend and have been utterly exhausted.

(The name after the office is the incumbent, the letter represents his party. CD stands for congressional district)

ALABAMA
Senate (Sessions, R) - A year ago there were high hopes for the democratic challenger, Vivian Davis Figures. She has since been a disappointing challenger, and incumbent Senator Jeff Sessions, a vocal religious right conservative, will win reelection by an overwhelming margin, possibly cracking 66 or 67% of the vote. Republican Hold

CD 1 (Everett, R) - Terry Everett, a low-key republican, is retiring after a long stint in the house. This is very red district, Bush won overwhelmingly here (the district stretches across much of Southeastern Alabama, the heart of Dixie.) When Everett announced his retiring it was universally assumed that the Republican would hold the seat. Since then the district has been a major headache for the GOP. The democrats recruited Bobby Bright, the popular mayor of Montgomery and a conservative democrat. The republicans, meanwhile, had a brutal and nasty primary fight between State Senator Harri Anne Smith and State Representative Jay Love. Love won, but Smith, immensely popular with Christian conservatives, endorsed Bright. All of this will propel Bright to a narrow win over Love. Democratic Pick Up

CD 3 (Rogers, R) - Mike Rogers usually wins reelection in this ruby red district in eastern Alabama. This year, however, he is being challenged by Josh Segall, a moderate democratic whose run a very good campaign. Rogers will still win, but by a reduced margin. Republican Hold

CD 5 (Cramer, D) - Bud Cramer has been beloved as Northern Alabama's congressman for the last 18 years. Now he is stepping aside. This is a very republican district on the presidential level, but Cramer has managed to routinely win landslides and democrats carry this district in statewide election on occasion. The democrats have nominated Parker Griffith, a conservative democrat reminiscent of Cramer. The republican nominated Wayne Parker, who lost to Cramer years ago. Griffith will win by a surprisingly wide margin. Democratic Hold

ALASKA
Senate (Stevens, R) - Ted Stevens has been a senator forever. The 84 year old juggernaut has been prominent in Alaska politics since statehood. His fate was sealed earlier this week, however, when he was convicted of making false statements. He will lose to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. It will be nice to see Stevens, the epitome of a cranky old man, leave the senate. The billions of dollars in pork, weird rants on the senate floor and blatant corruption will not be missed. Democratic Pick Up

CD At-Large (Young, R) - Both of Alaska's longtime politicos will fall on Tuesday, as Don Young, another pork-happy corrupt curmudgeon, will fall to democrat Ethan Berkowitz (one of my favorite challengers this year.) Young has consistently trailed Berkowitz all year and will have a hard time pulling out a win, especially as he barely even managed to get renominated (he beat Sarah Palin's Lieutenant Governor in the primary.) Democartic Pick Up

ARIZONA
CD 1 (Renzi, R) - Rick Renzi is retiring this year after being indicted for fraud. This is one of the biggest districts in the country, spanning from the Four Corners to the Grand Canyon to the Phoenix Suburbs. The Democrat, Ann Kirkpatrick, has maintained a massive advantage in this marginal congressional district all cycle and should easily dispatch Sydney Hay, a very conservative lobbyist. Democratic Pick Up

CD 3 (Shadegg, R) - John Shadegg is one of the leading republicans in the house and is a key ally of Mike Pence, a likely future republican leader in the house. Shadegg has a huge roll in republican circles, and has consistently won reelection in this Suburban Phoenix district. Despite his political acumen and the republican nature of the district, Shadegg finds himself with a marginally tough race for reelection against Bob Lord, who has run a stellar campaign. Shadegg will win. Republican Hold

CD5 (Mitchell, D) - 2 Years ago Harry Mitchell knocked off prominent conservative J.D. Hayworth in this republican leaning district. The republican challenger this time around is David Schweikert. Schweikert is a good candidate, and would have a fighting chance was it not for the huge democratic nature of this election cycle. Mitchell has a history of winning close elections, and has been one of the most impressive freshmen int he house this year. He will win reelection by a 4-7 point margin. Democratic Hold

CD8 (Giffords, D) - Gabrielle Giffords won this traditionally republican Tucson-area seat easily in 2006. Like Mitchell, the republicans are running a strong candidate, Popular State Senate President Tim Bee. In a neutral election year this would be a tough race, but with the wind hugely at the Democrats backs Giffords Should win. Also, look for Giffords to move to the governors office or the senate within the next few years, and maybe even run for president one day. Gabrielle Giffords is going places. Democratic Hold

ARKANSAS
Senate (Pryor, D) - The Republicans failed to even field a challenger here, despite the conservative nature of Arkansas. Senator Mark Pryor faces only Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who has a solid shot at 10% of the vote. Democratic Hold

CALIFORNIA
CD 3 (Lungren, R) - Dan Lungren, who represents a republican district in the Suburbs of Sacramento, is under fire for a lobbyist funded vacation in Hawaii and is facing a surprisingly strong challenge from Bill Durston, who lost by 20 points in 2006. Lungren will win again. (Editorial Note: As a resident of the 3rd Distirct id love nothing better than seeing Lungren lose. Hes absolutely awful) Republican Hold

CD 4 (Doolittle, R) - John Doolittle, once one of the top republicans in the house, is stepping down under an ethical cloud regarding his dealings with lobbyist and convicted felon Jack Abramoff. The 4th is a sprawling district, stretching from Orangevale to Oregon, and is extremely conservative. The republican are running State Senator Tom McClintock, one of the leading conservatives in California who is notably for his 3 failed runs at statewide office. This district is one of the most republican in the country, but McClintock is a weak challenger, not only for his abrasive style and off-putting demeanor, but also because he represents a State Senate District hundreds of miles away in Ventura and LA Counties. The democratic Nominee is Fmr. Air Force Colonel Charlie Brown, who came within a few hundred votes of beating Doolittle in 2006. Brown is an impressive challenger, and this time aroung will win, narrowly beating McClintock (though he is unlikely to hold this crimson seat for long.) Democratic Pick Up

CD 11 (McNerney, D) - McNerney is very liberal, but holds a republican district. The 11th, which takes in parts of Stockton and Tracy, was long the stronghold of Republican Richard Pombo, before McNerney shockingly beat Pombo in 2006. The republicans had high hopes for this district, but McNerney has remained popular and the GOP nominee, Dean Andal, has had some personal problems. Look for McNerney to win this time around, though he is likely toast in future (unless he's redistricted into a more democratic district in 2012.) Democratic Hold

CD 26 (Dreier, R) - David Dreier has represented the 26th, which takes in Northern Los Angeles County, since 1980 and is one of the top republicans in the house. His distirct has gone from being staunchly republican to being more marginal in recent years, and many believe that the immensly popular Dreier will be one of the last republicans to hold this seat. Dreier is facing Russ Warner, who has run a well organized campaign. Dreier will win. Republican Hold

CD 44 (Calvert, R) - Ken Calvert, who represents Riverside in the House, has had an ethical cloud over his head for years. In the 90s he was arrested after being discovered sitting in a car getting head from a prostitute. A few years ago his came under suspicion for some fishy land deals. Yet he still consistently wins reelection. This year will be no different and Calvert will beat challenger Bill Hedrick by a solid margin. Republican Hold

CD 45 (Bono Mack, R) - Mary Bono, wife of the late Sonny Bono and now husband of Florida Congressman Connie Mack IV, represnt's Sonny's old district, which streches from San Bernardino out across the desert to the Arizona border, and includes Palm Springs and Indio. It is a marginal district, but Bono Mack is personally popular, and will probably beat her challenger, Julie Bornstein. Republican Hold

CD 46 (Rohrabacker, R) - This conservative Huntington Beach district is the stomping ground of outspoken conservative Dana Rohrabacher. Rohrabacher is facing a surprisingly strong challenge this year from Debbie Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach. Rohrabacher will win. Republican Hold

CD 50 (Bilbray, R) - Brian Bilbray will beat challenger Nick Leibham by a solid margin in this conservative San Diego district. Some think Leibham has a chance, but they are delusional. Republican Hold

CD 52 (Hunter, R) - Duncan Hunter has represented this conservative San Diego district for years. After a quixotic presidential campaign Hunter decided not to run for reelection. His son, also named Duncan Hunter, will win this seat for the GOP. Republican Hold

COLORADO
Senate (Allard, R) - Republican Incumbent Wayne Allard announced back in 2007 that he would not stand for another term. Even if he had, this would have been a top senatorial battleground this year. Mark Udall, a rising star congressman from Boulder and the son of the legendary Mo Udall, started running for this seat in 2005. The republicans had some difficulty recruiting a candidate, but eventually settled on Bob Schaffer, a conservative Fmr. congressman who lost the 2004 GOP nomination to Pete Coors. Schaffer has been a disspointment for the republicans, and their hopes of winning this seat have wained significently in the last few months. In a typical election cycle this would probably be a close race, but Udall's popularity combined with the huge wind at his back will give Udall an easy win. Democratic Pick Up

CD2 (Udall, D) - Jared Polis, a wealthy businessman, will easily beat Scott Starin to take Mark Udall's seat in congress. Polis will join Barney Frank and Tammy Baldwin as the only openly gay members of congress. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Salazar, D) - John Salazar represents the republican Western Slope of Colorado. In a typical election year he might be challenged, but this year republicans have essentially ceded his seat, nominating a very weak challenger, County Commisioner Wayne Wolf, who will lose in a landslide. Democratic Hold

CD4 (Musgrave, R) - Marilyn Musgrave is one of the most conservative members of the house of representatives. She is famed for her abrasive style and her dubious respect for house ethics rules. She is very unpopular, but represents a solidly republican district that stretches across the plains of eastern Colorado. She has consistently been a democratic target, and narrowly bested democratic challengers the last 3 cycles (she was reelected with just 46% of the vote last time around.) This time is her toughest campaign yet. In addition to the national democratic advantage this cycle, the democrats have nominated Betsy Markey, a former aide to popular Senator Ken Salazar and a solid campaigner. Markey will win. Democratic Gain

CD6 (Tancredo, R) - Tom Tancredo decided to retire after making an abortive run for the Presidency. The republicans have nominated Mike Coffman, who has had a rocky tenure as Colorado Secretary of State. Despite personal problems, Coffman will beat Democrat Hank Eng in this staunchly republican district in the Denver Suburbs. Republican Hold

CONNECTICUT
CD2 (Courtney, D) - 2 Years ago Joe Courtney beat incumbent Rob Simmons by 52 votes, the narrowed margin of any race that year. Courtney will have an easier time of reelection. His opponent, Sean Sullivan, was initially thought of as a strong challenger to Courtney, but has turned out to be an anemic fundraiser and weak campaigner. Courtney will win reelection easily. Democratic Hold

CD4 (Shays, R) - Chris Shays, who represents Stamford and Bridgeport in the House, is one of the last of a dieing breed: Moderate to Liberal New England republicans. He is, actually, the only Republican congressman from New England (in a delegation of 32.) Shays has a voting record to the left of many democrats and is very popular in his district, but it's democratic nature means that Shays is always a target. In the last 2 cycles he narrowly bested Dianne Farrell. This time around, he is facing Jim Himes, who has run a well funded and disciplined campaign. Himes will defeat Shays by a very narrow margin, perhaps unfortunately. Democratic Pick Up

CD5 (Murphy, D) - For years this western Connecticut district was the stomping ground of Nancy Johnson, before she was defeated in somewhat of a surprise in 2006 by Chris Murphy, a politically gifted rising star in his 30s. Republicans once thought they could retake this district, but they wont, Murphy will easily defeat Republican David Cappiello. Murphy is a rising star and will be a Senator, Governor or House Leader one day. Democratic Hold

DELAWARE
Governor (Minner, D) State Treasurer Jack Markell will easily defeat Bill Lee to take the seat of term limited governor Ruth Ann Minner. Democratic Hold

Senate (Biden, D) - Joe Biden will be reelected to the senate. Assuming he is elected vice president at the same time, he will shortly resign and Governor Minner will appoint a successor to his seat.

FLORIDA
CD8 (Keller, R) - Two years ago Ric Keller beat Charlie Stuart in a close race. This year Keller is locked ina tough race in this Orlando district against Alan Grayson. Keller has been favored most of the cycle, but Grayson has surged recently and will probably unseat Keller. Democratic Pick Up

CD9 (Bilirakis, R) - Gus Bilirakis was elected 2 years ago to succeed his father in this north central Florida district. This time around he faced a marginal challenge from Bill Mitchell. Bilirakis will win. Republican Hold

C10 (Young, R) - Moderate Republican Bill Young has represented this district since the 70s. He will be the last republican to do so, only immense personal popularity has allowed him to win reelection over and over in heavily democratic St. Petersburg. He is facing a challenge from Bob Hackworth, a local mayor. He will win this time, but by a smaller margin than most expect. Expect the democrats to take the seat in 2010 when the Eelderly Young likely retires. Republican Hold

CD 13 (Buchanan, R) - This Sarasota area congressional district has a penchant for drama. In 2002 it elected Katherine Harris, famed for her eccentricity and her role in the 2000 Florida Recount. Then, 2 years ago, Harris ran for senate (losing by a landslide) and this eat became open. That year two friends, Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings, ran aginst each other. After a brutal campaign, in which their friendship turned to hatred, the election was very close on election night, and Buchanan unexpectedly won by 300 votes. Then, evidence came to light of voting machine failure in the democratic part of the district. Despite this, Buchanan was inaugurated (though Jennings challenged in court.) This year Jennings is running again. This time, Buchanan will win handily. Jennings handled the aftermath of her defeat terribly (no one likes a sore loser, especially in politics.) Jan Schneider, the democratic nominee in 02 and 04, is running as an independent and will draw significent numbers of votes from Jennings. Republican Hold

CD15 (Weldon, R) - The democrats majorly blew an opportunity here this year. 2 years ago Weldon won reelection with a very weak margin. This year, Weldon is retiring. Despite the potentially competitive nature of this Space Coast district, the democrats failed to recruit a strong candidate, and are running Steve Blythe, a very weak challenger. Republican State Senator Bill Posey will win handily. Republican Hold

CD16 (Mahoney, D) - Like the 13th, this central Florida district has a penchant for drama. In 2006 it's congressman, Mark Foley, resigned in an underage gay sex scandal. The man elected to succeed him, Tim Mahoney, has had one of the worst congressional terms in history. Within weeks of being inaugurated he started complaining about his job, saying it was one of the worst jobs he'd ever had. Earlier this year he published a flier praising veterans, which is all good and well except the pictured veteran's were from the Soviet Union's Red Army. The, a month ago, it was revealed Mahoney has been having multiple affairs with staffers, was paying them not to talk about it and his wife was divorcing him. He will be crushed by Republican Tom Rooney, who presumably, if this seat lives up to it's reputation, will lose 2 years from now in some sort of sex scandal. Republican Pick Up

CD18 (Ros-Lehtinen, R) - The fact that Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is in trouble is a testament to the problems the GOP is having in south Florida. Ros-Lehtinen is a tough veteran of south Florida politics. She is one of a trio of Cubans representing the traditionally republican anti-castro cuban sections of Miami. First elected in 1989 (Jeb Bush was her campaign manager) she has become the top republican on the Foreign Affairs committee and is a formidable force in Florida politics. South Florida, however, is fast changing. The cuban community, long staunchly republican, is shifting to the center. Ros-Lehtinen is facing a surprising challenge from democrat Annette Taddeo. Ros-Lehtinen, however, is in much stronger position than the Diaz-Balart brothers and will probably defeat Ros-Lehtinen. This will be a seat to watch in future. Republican Hold

CD21 (Diaz-Balart, R) - Like Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, the older of the Diaz-Balart brothers, represents a Cuban Miami area district that is fast shifting to the center. Diaz-Balart, however, is less popular than Ros-Lehtinen and has a stronger challenger. Raul Martinez was mayor of Hialeah, one of the biggest cities in the district, for 24 years. He is an immensely controversial guy. He was very popular as mayor and is one of the more popular cuban democrats. He also was once indicted on corruption and extortion charges, convicted, then had the convictions overturned on appeal. He is a very talented politician, but his spotty past hurts him. Diaz-Balart will narrowly eke out a win here. Republican Hold

CD24 (Feeney, R) - Tom Feeney has been a fixture in Florida politics for years. He was Jeb Bush's running mate in his unsuccessful 1994 gubernatorial bid. He was then the speaker of the Florida House of Representatives during the 2000 recount and was big behind the scenes player in Bush's victory there. Being speaker of the house gives ones certain special privileges, like drawing congressional districts specifically to elect you to congress, and in 2002 he won his hand drawn Orlando area seat handily. Since then he's had a rocky time. He was named one of the 10 most corrupt members of congress by C.R.E.W. in 2006 and has come under fire for a golf trip to Scotland paid for by Jack Abramoff. The corruption allegations have badly hurt him and he will lose to dmeocrat Suzanne Kosmas. Democratic Pick Up

CD25 (Diaz-Balart, R) - Mario, the younger of the Diaz-Balart brothers, is in the same predicament as his brother and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. His challenger is, surprisingly, the strongest. Joe Garcia has run a very good campaign and may be the democrats best chnce of a pickup in south Florida. Garcia will beat Diaz-Balart by a very narrow margin (this is my pick for closest house race of the year.) Democratic Pick Up

GEORGIA
Senate (Chambliss, R) - Saxby Chambliss, who is hated by the left for his brusing defeat of Max Cleland in 2002, is facing an unexpectedly close race for reelection. Chambliss held a huge lead most of the cycle, then the race inexplicably narrowed in the last month and is now a toss up. Jim Martin, the democratic candidate, is a blue dog democrat and has run a good campaign. This race will depend on two things: black turnout and a potential runoff. Georgia has a rule that if no candidate breaks 50% on election night it goes to a runoff with the top two candidates a month later. There is a libertarian running, and with the closeness of the race it seems unlikely either candidate breaks 50%. The second factor is african american turnout. With Obama at the top of the ticket african american turnout is going to he high. If it is huge, then Martin wins, if it is only big then Chambliss does. Chances are, though, it will go to a high stakes runoff that could decide if the democrats get to 60 seats. I tend to think that Chambliss will narrowly win on tuesday then win the low turnout runoff easily. Republican Hold

CD8 (Marshall, D) - Blue Dog Democrat Jim Marshall barely won his Macon seat 2 years ago. He is a top target of the republican party, but this year will beat his opponent, Fmr. Air Force General Rick Goddard, by a solid margin. Democratic Hold

CD12 (Barrow, D) - Like Marshall, Jim Barrow is a blue dog democrat and a perennial republican target. He barely won in 2006, but this time will handily beat republican John Stone, a rather weak challenger. Democratic Hold

HAWAII
There are no notable races in Hawaii

IDAHO
Senate (Craig, R) - This is Larry Craig's senate seat, but the disgraced Craig is retiring this year. He will be replaced by Republican LG Jim Risch, who will easily defeat Fmr. Congressman Larry LaRocco. Republican Hold

CD1 (Sali, R) - Bill Sali won a highly contested 6 way republican primary with only 20% of the vote in 2006 and then went on to win the general election against Larry Grant by a very narrow margin, despite the massivly republican nature of the district. Sali is hated by the republican establishment, and especially by Governor Butch Otter. He is known for his rude and abrasive nature, as well as his uncompromising conservatism. His personal unpopularity has turned this safe republican district intoa swing district. This year he is facing Walt Minick, who is significantly more moderate than Grant was. Minick will beat Sali by a small margin. Democratic Pick Up

ILLINOIS
Senate (Durbin, D) - Dick Durbin, the #2 democrat in the senate, will win his race for reelection against Steve Sauerberg in a landslide.

CD6 (Roskam, R) - Roskam beat Tammy Duckworth in a close race 2 years ago. Roskam, who represents a marginal seat in the Chicago Suburbs, is a popular congressman and a good political and will probably win reelection. Barack Obama is going to win Illinois, and this district, by a huge margin and it's possible that that could translate into a surprise victory for dmeocrat Jill Morgenthaler, a decorated Iraq war veteran. Roskam will win, but by a surprisingly close margin, and its very possible Obama's Illinois blowout will lead to an upset for Morgenthaler. Republican Hold

CD8 (Bean, R) - Melissa Bean shockingly defeated long time Rep. Phil Crane in 2004, after which she was almost unanimously marked for reelection defeat in this Republican Northern Illinois district. Despite this, Bean has done an excellent job of consolidating herself in the district and won reelection in 2008 by a solid margin. She will do the same this year, but the next time the republicans have a good election year Bean is probably gone. Democratic Hold

CD10 (Kirk, R) - Mark Kirk, a moderate republican, represents a democratic leaning seat in northern Cook County. He barely beat Dan Seals in 2006, but this time around Seals will ride Obama's Illinois coattails to victory. Democratic Pick Up

CD11 (Weller) - Jerry Weller, once one of Dennis Hastert's top allies, is retiring this year. He will be replaced by popular State Senate President Debbie Halvorson, who has been slated to win this marginal district south of Chicago since Weller stepped down. She will beat republican Marty Ozinga by a significant margin. Democratic Pick Up

CD13 (Biggert, R) - Judy Biggert should have an easy time of reelection against Scott Harper in this republican leaning Chicago suburbs district, but Barack Obama's coattails could extend here. Biggert will win reelection. Republican hold

CD14 (Foster, D) - Bill Foster shocked the nation when he beat Jim Oberweis in a special election to take the seat of Fmr. Speaker Dennis Hastert. Despite the republican nature of this Fox Valley district Foster will beat the abrasive Oberweis for the second time, aided by Obama's coattails. Democratic Hold

CD18 (LaHood, R) - The Peoria based seat of Ray LaHood will be one of the bright spots for the Republicans on election night. Aaron Schock, a young state senator, will beat democrat Coleen Callahan to take LaHood's seat. Schock will be a big rising star in the Republican party. Watch out for this guy, hes only in his 20s and has limitless potential. He may well be President of the United States one day. Republican Hold

INDIANA
Governor (Daniels, R) - Mitch Daniels looked to be in serious trouble a year ago, but a weak democratic challenger and a very well run campaign have put him in good shape for reelection. He will win with a surprisingly comfortable margin, and will regain rising star status in the Republican Party. Republican Hold

CD2 (Donnelly, D) - Freshman Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly will easily defeat challenger Luke Puckett in this South Bend based district. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Souder, R) - In one of the big upsets of election night democratic challenger Mike Montagano will defeat heavily favored conservative incumbent Mark Souder. Democratic Pick Up

CD8 (Ellsworth, D) - Ellsworth, who was the first democratic gain of the 2006 elections, will easily defeat challenger Greg Goode. Democratic Hold

CD9 (Hill, D) - This Evansville based district has been nicknamed the Bloody 9th for its history of close elections. This election will be the fourth in a row where Democrat Baron Hill will face off against Republican Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002, Sodrel won in 2004 and Hill took back the seat in 2006. This year Hill will win by a comfortable margin. Democratic Hold

IOWA
Senate (Harkin, D) - Tom Harkin, one of the leading liberals in the senate and a 1992 presidential hopeful, will easily win reelection over republican challenger Chris Reed. Democratic Hold

CD1 (Braley, D) - Incumbent Bruce Braley will easily defeat Republican David Hartsuch, despite the highly competitive nature of this eastern Iowa district. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Loebsack, D) - Leonard Loebsack beat Jim Leach in an upset two years ago. This year he will defeat Marianette Miller-Meeks by a significant margin. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Boswell, D) - Davis Boswell is an old, do-nothing congressman. Despite this, he will handily defeat republican Kim Schmett in his Des Moines based district. Hopefully, Boswell will retire in 2010. Democratic Hold

C4 (Latham, R) - There are some people that think Becky Greenwald can beat Republican Congressman Tom Latham in this western Iowa district. They are Delusional. Republican Hold

KANSAS
Senate (Roberts, R) - Several months ago it looked like Senator Pat Roberts had a race on his hands. Polls showed his democratic challenger, Fmr. Congressman Jim Slattery, trailing by only a small margin. Since that time Roberts has widened the gap and now holds a commanding lead and will be easily reelected. Republican Hold

CD2 (Boyda, D) - Nancy Boyda beat formidable incumbent Jim Ryun in an almost mind-blowing upset. This year, Boyda is running for reelection against State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who narrowly beat Ryun in the primary. This is a very close race, even with the huge democratic advantage this year Boyda will have a tough time winning reelection in this Eastern Kansas district. It will be very close, but Boyda will win. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Moore, D) - Dennis Moore, a perennial target in his Kansas City district, is facing Republican STate Senator Nick Jordan this year. Moore will win easily. Democratic Hold

KENTUCKY
Senate (McConnell, R) - This may well be the marquee senate race this year. Mitch McConnell is a giant, the republican leader in the senate and the long-time kingmaker in Kentucky politics. He is locked in a surprisingly close race against Bruce Lunsford, a democratic businessman and 2 time gubernatoral candidate. This will be very close, but McConnell will win, possibly thwarting democratic hopes for 60 senate seats. Republican Hold

CD2 (Lewis, R) - After facing a close race in 2006 Republican Congressman Ron Lewis decided to retire this year. The republican candidate to replace him, Brett Guthrie, is a popular member of the state senate and a rising star in Kentucky politics. Guthrie was widely slated to win the seat initally, but democrat David Boswell has run a good race and has a shot at the seat. Guthrie will win. Republican Hold

CD3 (Yarmuth, D) - After 10 years representing this seat Anne Northup was narrowly beaten by John Yarmuth 2 years ago. After a losing run for governor in 2007 Northup announced she would challenge Yarmuth for her old Louisville seat. She has had a disappointing election cycle and Yarmuth will be reelected by a comfortable margin. Democratic Hold

LOUISIANA
Louisiana is a weird and state and CD2 and CD4 will be holding primaries on tuesday, while the rest of the state wll be holding generals. The generals in CDs 2 and 4 will be held in December.

Senate (Landrieu, D) - Mary Landrieu, the only vulnerable senate democrat, is in a tough fight with Democrat-turned-Republican state treasurer John Kennedy. Polling has showed this to be a tigh race, but Landrieu has built up a lead recently. This is only the second statewide election since hurricane Katrina, and it is still unclear how much of heavily democratic New Orleans has returned to the state, making democratic turnour unpredictable. Regardless, Landrieu will win reelection. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Jefferson, D) - Bill Jefferson, who represents New Orleans, is the most corrupt member of congress. He is famed for a raid on his house a few years ago in which police found thousands of dollars in his freezer. Tuesday will be his primary against Helena Moreno. Unfortunatly, Jefferson will probably win it and subsequently reelection in December. Democratic Hold

CD4 (McCrery, R) - Jim McCrery, the ranking republican on the appropriations committee, is retiring this year. Tuesday will be the primaries to select replacement nominees for what should be a close December election. The democrats will chose between Paul Carmouche and Willie Banks (Carmouche will win) and the republicans will chose between Chris Gorman and John Fleming. I'll go out on a limb and predict Carmouche then wins the December General Election. Dmeocratic Gain

CD6 (Cazayoux, D) - Don Cazayoux won this Baton Rouge based seat in a special election a few months ago. This time around he will have a tougher race. His opponent in the special election, Woody Jenkins, was highly flawed, whereas his opponent on tuesday will be Bill Cassidy, who is a stronger candidate. In addition Michael Jackson (no, not THAT Michael Jackson), an African-American State Senator beaten by Cazayoux in the primary, in running as an independent, and will draw significant votes from Cazayoux. These factors will combine to give a narrow win to Cassidy. Republican Pick Up

CD7 (Boustany, R) - Two term incumbent Chuck Boustany is facing an aggressive challenge from democrat Don Cravins in this western Gulf Coast district. Boustany will survive. Republican Hold

MAINE
Senate (Collins, R) - Susan Collins's democratic challenger, Tom Allen, is a top-tier recruit and an immensely popular congressman. Obama will handily win Maine. This is a year in which democrats are poised to make huge congressional gains. Yet Collins is going to win a comfortable reelection. Mainers just seem to love Susan Collins, I dont think theres any other explanation for her strength in this race. Look for Allen to run for Governor in 2010. Republican Hold

CD1 (Allen, D) - The race to replace Tom Allen will be won by Democrat Chellie Pingree, a former president of Common Cause. She will beast republican Charlie Summers easily. Democratic Hold

MARYLAND
CD1 (Gilchrest, R) - This district should be an easy republican hold. It has been held for years by Republican Wayne Gilchrest who, like Chris Shays, is one of the last northeastern liberal republicans left. The district, which takes up the Eastern Shore, is strongly Republican. Then, Conservative State Senator Andy Harris defeated Gilchrest in the republican primary. Since then it has only been bad news for the GOP. The Harris-Gilchrest primary fight was highly divisive, and Harris emerged with his republican base fractured. The democrats nominated Frank Kratovil, who has run a surprisingly strong campaign, and got big boost when Gilchrest endorsed him over Harris. This will be a close race, but Kratovil will win. Democratic Pick Up

MASSACHUSETTS
Senate (Kerry, D) - John Kerry will be reelected over Jeff Beatty in a landslide. Democratic Hold

MCIHIGAN
Senate (Levin, D) - Levin, Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, will crush republican Jack Hoogendyk. Democratic Hold

CD1 (Stupak, D) - Republican thought they had a shot at Bart Stupak's seat when Tom Casperson, a Republican State Senator, entered the race. His weak campaigning and anemic fundraising dashed their hopes and Stupak will be reelected in a landslide. Democratic Hold

CD7 (Walberg, R) - Tim Walberg unseated moderate incumbent Joe Schwarz in the primary 2 years ago. He then narrowly won the general against a weak democrat. Walberg is very conservative, clearly too much so for this southern Michigan District. This time around he is facing Mark Schauer, a well funded democratic veteran of the state legislature. Schauer will beat Walberg. Democratic Pick Up

CD9 (Knollenberg, R) - Joe Knollenberg, who represents the Oakland County suburbs of Detroit, is a veteran congressman, but his district has gone from strongly republican to a marginal seat since his election 20 years ago. He is facing a strong challenge from Gary Peters, and with Obama poised for a big win here Peters will knock off Knollenberg. Dmeocratic Pick Up

MINNESOTA
Senate (Coleman, R) - This race probably takes the cake as the most interesting race this year. Norm Coleman, a 60s hippie turned conservative republican, is defending the Senate seat he won in even stranger circumstances in 2002 (incumbent Paul Wellstone died a week before election day, was replaced by Walter Mondale and then his funeral was turned into a campaign rally, causing backlash that sank Mondale) His opponent this year is Al Franken, the comedian. Franken, best known for his numerous semi-humorous books on politics and his stint on SNL, has had a rocky time. Allegations of abuse of employees and weird tax returns severally hurt him. Then theres Dean Barkley, who served in the senate for a month when he was appointed by Governor Jesse Venture to fill Wellstone's seat until Coleman's inauguration. Barkley, whos running on Ventura's old Independence Party ticket, is a significant presence in the race and will take in a round 20% of the vote. Polls in this race have been erratic, it seems each one is either tied or has a different candidate up 2 point and Barkley consistently polls from 10% to 25%. In the end, Franken will be boosted by big turnout and Obama's easy win in the state but will still lose narrowly to Coleman. Republican Hold

CD1 (Walz, D) - Tim Walz was a surprise winner 2 years ago in this Rochester-Based southern Minnesota district. Republicans had high hopes for this seat at the beginning of the cycle, but they will not be realized. Walz will beat Republican Brian Davis easily. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Kline, R) - The democrats missed an opportunity here. Their nominee, Steve Sarvi, is a solid challenger, and incumbent John Kline has never posted excellent numbers. The DCCC, however, ignored this race and Kline will easily win. Republican Hold

CD3 (Ramstad, R) - Jim Ramstad, a veteran moderate republican, is retiring. THis district, based in the Minneapolis Suburbs, is a marginal seat. The democrats have nominated Ashwin Madia, a young Iraq War vet. The republicans have gone with Erik Paulsen, a veteran of the State Legislature. It will be a close race but Madia will win. Dmeocratic Pick Up

CD6 (Bachmann, R) - Michele Bachmann, an ultra-conservative republican, was cruising to an easy reelection this year. Then she went on Hardball and said that Barack Obama was unamerican and that every member of congress should be investigated for "unamerican" views. The backlash has been strong and her opponent, a well respected local mayor named Elwyn Tinklenberg, raised a million dollars in the 48 hours immediately following the interview. RNCC pulled the plug on this race a week ago and Bachmann will lose to Tinklenberg. Democratic Pick Up

MISSISSIPPI
Senate I (Cochran, R) - Veteran Senator Thad Cochran will easily beat for state legislator Erik Fleming. Republican Hold

Senate II (Wicker, R) - Both senate seats are up in Mississippi this year dur to Trent Lott's resignation from this seat, which prompted a special election. Governor Haley Barbour appointed Roger Wicker, a top house republican, to the seat. Wicker is facing an aggressive challenge from fmr. Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Wicker will win, though an upset is possible. Republican Hold

CD1 (Childers, D) - Travis Childres made national headlines when he surprisingly snatched this seat from the republicans in the special election to replace Roger Wicker. This district is heavily republican, but Childers, a conservative democrat, will win reelection over Southaven Mayor Greg Davis. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Pickering, R) - Republican Gregg Harper will easily beat Democrat Joel Gill to replace retiring congressman Chip Pickering. Republican Hold

MISSOURI
Governor (Blunt, R) - Matt Blunt is retiring after just one term because "we've accomplished really everything we wanted to accomplish." His 30% approval rating and 20 margin deficit in opinion polls had nothing to do with the decision, of course. The nominees to replace him are veteran state AG Jay Nixon and COngressman Kenny Hulshof. Nixon has led in the polls all year and will easily win. Democratic Pick Up

CD6 (Graves, R) - Sam Graves usually easily wins reelection in the Kansas City Suburbs district, but is facing a tough challenge this year from Fmr. Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes. Graves will win. Republican Hold

CD9 (Hulshof, R) - The race to replace Kenny Hulshof has become surprisingly close, with democrat Judy Baker and republican Blaine Luetkemeyer locked in a close race in this northeastern Missouri district. Luetkemeyer will probably win. Republican Hold

California Ballot Propositions

2008-10-26T18:23:00.000-07:00

How i would vote on california's ballot propositions:

1A (High Speed Rail) - Yes: definitely worth the money

2 (Farm Animals) - No: good idea, bad timing. During a big recession is not the time to pass a proposition that, as good as it may be, will cause economic hardship for farmers, which are the backbone of the state economy

3 Children's Hospital Grants - Yes: More healthy people is a good thing

4 Waiting Period for an Abortion - No: bad, bad idea

5 Nonviolent Sentencing and Rehabilitation: YES: By far the best prop on the ballot this year, Prop 5 will reduce the number of nonviolent drug offenders in prison and shift the focus from punishment to rehabilitation. Not only will it potential improve the lives of hundreds of thousands of people who simply should not be in prison, it will also reduce prison overcrowding and will probably end up saving the state money.

6 Tougher Penalties and safety funding - NO! Terrible proposition. This is one of those "Grrrr: We're tough on Crime!" laws that just ends up making people's lives worse. Proposition 6 will make it so that 14 year olds can be tried in an adult court for any offense even remotely related to a gang. It hugely and unnecessarily increases sentences for people who commit minor crimes. Not only that, but it would cost well over a billion dollars a year, and this will will be REQUIRED to come from the general fund. This means its another billion dollars the state wont have to fund schools, roads, enviormental protection etc. If you dont like the budget woes we had this year, then you'll hate what will happen if this passes.

7 Renewable Energy - Prop 7 is written really stupidly. It's a good idea, but will just turn out to be easy money for oil companies. It forces small companies out of the market with a ridiculous requirement on the minimum output of renewable plants. It is so poorly written that it offers huge loopholes. Good Idea, Bad Proposition.

8 Eliminates Gay Marriage - NO!!!!

9 Victim's Rights - No: Like prop 6 its a "Grrrr: We're tough on Crime!" law that really will just hurt people in the end. It restricts parole and will just cause more people to be in prison when they shouldn't be. Like Prop 6 this will further hurt California's budget shortfall and make our budgetary woes permanent.

10Renewable Energy - Yes: Expensive, but worth it, prop 10, unlike 7, gets renewable energy right. It will expand alternate energy research and reward fuel efficient vehicles. Prop 10 is a big step on the road to sustainable, renewable energy. Now is the time for California to take the lead in Renewable Energy.

11 Redistricting - YES! Redistricting reform is a very, very good idea. The way congressional districts are drawn is ridiculous. Prop 11 will ensure compact, nonpartisan districts.

12 Veteran's Bonds - No: Too expensive. I like veterans, but i don't see why we need to spend 2 billion on them

This is a Great Time to be a Democrat

2008-10-22T21:08:00.000-07:00

I have several big posts that im in the middle of writing, but for now just let me say this:

This is a fantastic time to be a democrat. these polls, both presidential and congressional, incite what could be minimally described as transcendental joy within the visceral depths of my being. If they hold up this election night will be one to remeber (though if Prop 8 passes it will certainly dampen the mood, thank god it wont be called untill early morning)

We're up in states and districts we've never been competitive in. Some of the worst republicans, like Marilyn Musgrave, Don Young, Michele Bachmann, Ted Stevens and Bill Sali, may well loose their seats. Best of all Barack Obama will probably be elected president.

At this point it would take some sort of big change in the nature of the race for anything to change, and its definatly not over (I've been alternating between sheer happiness and tantalizing anxiety about this election recently) but all indications are Obama will win with well over 300 electoral votes, and the dmeocrats will have big majorities in both houses of congress (btw the 60 seat number in the senate is wayyyy overrated)

So im excitedm and any democrat should be excited. Just pray that this time around we'll have our act together once we get there. We DONT need another 1993 and 1994. Winning this will feel great. Hopefully the governing part will go as planned.

tune in for upcomming posts about my favorite members of congress, California Ballot propositions, and in a week and a half my prediction for all the close house and senate races in the country

No More Marriage

2008-10-21T15:52:00.000-07:00

The states should stop recognizing marriage. Not just gay marriage, all marriage.

I'm serious

The state should recognize civil unions that give people the legal rights now entailed by marriage. Any two people should be allowed to apply for such a union. Whether or not these people are married will be left up to them. That way, the various stigma attached to the word marriage will be irrelevant.

Sorry

2008-10-18T19:19:00.000-07:00

about the sporadic posting, it should get more frequent as it gets more routine

Who i'd Have Voted For

2008-10-18T16:58:00.000-07:00

This is who i would have voted for in every presidential election in history:

2004: John Kerry (Democrat)
2000: Al Gore (Democrat)
1996: Bill Clinton (Democrat)
1992: Bill Clinton (Democrat)
1988: Michael Dukakis (Democrat)
1984: Walter Mondale (Democrat)
1980: Jimmy Carter (Democrat)
1976: Jimmy Carter (Democrat)
1972: Jim McGovern (Democrat)
1968: Hubert Humphrey (Democrat)
1964: Lyndon Johnson (Democrat)
1960: John Kennedy (Democrat)
1956: 1956 and 1952 would have been very tough. Eisenhower was a great president, and i have quite a bit of love for Adlai Stevenson. I really can't decide who id have voted for if these were my options.
1952: See Above
1948: Thomas Dewey (Republican)
1944: Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat)
1940: Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat)
1936: Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat)
1932: Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat)
1928: Herbert Hoover (Republican)
1924: Calvin Coolidge (Republican)
1920: James Cox (Democrat)
1916: Charles Evans Hughes (Republican)
1912: Theodore Roosevelt (Bull Moose)
1908: William Howard Taft (Republican)
1904: Theodore Roosevelt (Republican)
1900: Anybody except William McKinley and Willian Jennings Bryan
1896: Anybody except William McKinley and Willian Jennings Bryan
1892: Grover Cleveland (Democrat)
1888: Grover Cleveland (Democrat)
1884: Grover Cleveland (Democrat)
1880: James Garfield (Republlican)
1876: Samuel Tilden (Democrat)
1872: Horace Greeley (Liberal Republican)
1868: Horatio Seymour (Democrat)
1864: Abraham Lincoln (Republican)
1860: Abraham Lincoln (Republican)
1856: John Fremont (Republican)
1852: John Hale (Free Soil)
1848: Martin Van Buren (Free Soil)
1844: James Birney (Liberty)
1840: Martin Van Buren (Democrat)
1836: Martin Van Buren (Democrat)
1832: Henry Clay (Whig)
1828: John Quincy Adams (Democratic-Republican)
1824: John Quincy Adams (Democratic-Republican)
1820: James Monroe (Democratic-Republican)
1816: Rufus King (Federalist)
1812: DeWitt Clinton (Federalist)
1808: Charles Cotesworth Pinckney (Federalist)
1804: Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican)
1800: John Adams (Federalist)
1796: John Adams (Federalist)
1792: George Washington
1789: George Washington

2008-10-14T12:46:00.000-07:00

Strange

2008-10-06T19:41:00.000-07:00

I would like to quickly point out an utterly bizarre phenomenon that no one else seems to notice

If you look at the senators of Illinois and Arizona, you have not only the 2 parties presidential nominees, but also their Senate Whips

The other senator from Arizona is Jon Kyl, the republican's #2 in the senate. His counterpart is Dick Durbin, the senior senator from Illinois. The Junior Senator form Illinois is, of course, Barack Obama.

Coincidence?

Obama's to lose?

2008-10-06T18:56:00.000-07:00

As we head into the final days of the campaign it is becoming increasingly apparent that Barack Obama is in strong position for November. With polls now showing him up in Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and closing in on North Carolina and Indiana, it is looking like he may well break 300 electoral votes. While anything could happen in the next 25 days, it appears increasingly like Obama's campaign is in high gear and has all the momentum.
McCain is desperate. In recent days he's taking to branding Obama as a terrorist sympathizer, which is about as low as you can get. I would also add its pretty bad strategy. People will believe Obama is an elitist. They will believe that Obama is out of touch. They will believe Obama is inexperienced an naive. But i severely doubt they will take seriously a charge that Obama is a terrorist sympathizer (and i would add that all the stuff i just listed is total bs, but its believable bs.)
You never know whats going to happen, but at this point it would take a major major event for Obama to lose this election. If you look at the above map, the yellow states are currently toss ups, and all but Colorado and Nevada would put him over the top (i forgot to put ECVs on the map, but its Obama: 259 McCain: 190 Toss-Up: 89.) Recent Polling Averages (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) in those states:

Colorado: McCain+1
Florida: Obama+2
Nevada: Obama+1
North Carolina: Tied
Ohio: Obama+2
Virginia: Obama+3

If all of those are true, then Obama wins 324-214 (giving NC to McCain)

And if you want even better (for the democrats) numbers, polls released earlier today (and therefore not yet accounted for on electoral-vote.com) show this:

From FoxNews/Rasmussen:
Florda: Obama+7
Colorado: Obama+6
Missouri: Obama+3
Virginia: Obama+2
Ohio: Obama+1

ABC News/WSJ
Ohio: Obama+6

PPP
North Carolina: Obama+6

DemocracyCorps
Ohio: Obama+6

Suffolk University
Virginia: Obama+12

SurveyUSA
Virginia: Obama+10

National Polls

2008-10-01T20:34:00.000-07:00

A quick bit of advice:

During this presidential election, the media has been referencing National Polls a lot

Ignore them

National Polls are irrelevant, inaccurate and useless. This is not a national election, it is 51 individual state (+DC) elections. In the end, the numbers matter only in a handful of swing states. All that matters are the polls out of the few swing states, especially Virginia, Colorado and Ohio, the three states i think will decide this election (Colorado especially.) Even if this weren't true, i personally think that accurately polling 130,000,000 votes is impossible

North Carolina

2008-09-24T16:56:00.000-07:00

Can the Democrats win in North Carolina?

Like most of the south the State has been solidly republican for the last two decades, and reelected firebrand conservative Jesse Helms to the senate five times. As in many of the southern states the democrats have continued to do well in local elections (they hold the governorship and 7 of the state's 13 house seats.) In terms of presidential elections, however, this state has been ruby red. It was one of just 5 southern states that voted against Bill Clinton both times, and was last one by Southerner Jimmy Carter. No non-southern democratic nominee has won it since John Kennedy.

Yet, this year might be different. A recent polled showed Obama and McCain tied in the state, 45% to 45%. Most other recent polls show McCain with a 4-10 point lead. It seems as though Obama may actually have a shot at the state, as well as its juicy 15 electoral votes. North Carolina has a strong populist streak, as the closure of textile mills has devastated much of the state. This, combined with increased black turnout, could spell a win for Obama. It is still, however, unlikely. Republicans hold the natural advantage in the state, and McCain's lead among rural voters and military veterans will make it very difficult for Obama to win. Democrats rely on socially conservative, but economically protectionist voters to win in the state. Obama seems unlikely to win enough of these votes to actually win the state, though one can always hope.

More encouraging is the downballot races. North Carolina is the only state this year to have competitive races for the governorship, senate seat, congressional seats and it's electoral votes. In the Senate, incumbent Elizabeth Dole, who haplessly chaired the GOP senate campaign committee in 2006, is surprisingly vulnerably. Her challenger is Kay Hagan, a state senator from Greensboro. The Dole-Hagan race initially looked non-competative, with Dole holding a 10 point lead through most of the summer. Recently, however, it has heated up. A recent Rasmussen poll has Hagan up, 51-45. Another recent poll, from Elon University, has the race tied 35% to 35% (though I doubt it was an accurate poll, no way is 30% undecided.) 2 other polls from earlier this month have Dole up, one by 6 points and the other by eight. If Hagan can win this seat it would be huge. Not only would she defeat a Political legend in Liddy Dole, but she would inch the democrats 1 closer to the magicall 60 seat mark.

North Carolina also features a close gubernatorial race between Democratic Lieutenant Governor Bev Perdue and Republican Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. The race is very close, with most polls showing it within the margin of error. There are also several contested House Races. 2 years ago in the 8th district Incumbent Republican Robin Hayes beat Democrat Larry Kissel by roughly 300 votes. Kissell is running again, and this seat is a top democratic takeover opportunity this year. Other hosue races worth noting are in the 5th District (Rep. Virginia Foxx (R) vs. Roy Carter (D)), and in the 11th (freshmen Rep. Heath Shuler (D) vs. Carl Mumpower (R))

A Quick Point

2008-09-24T12:45:00.000-07:00

our current economic problems excellently illustrate why you don't raise spending, cut taxes, and try to fight a ridiculously expensive war all at once. Maybe if the republican administration and the republican congress hadn't spent the last 8 years blowing through money like a lottery-winning gambling addict then we would have the money to bail out wall street. This is why we need balanced budgets, so that when the economy goes into free fall we have the reserves to help right the ship without causing long term damage to the country.

Really?

2008-09-21T17:30:00.000-07:00

John McCain owns 13 cars. Barack Obama owns 1.

And Obama's the elitist?

McCain loves to put out this image of Obama as this aloof liberal celebrity with not idea what its like to be an "average american." Yet John McCain owns 13 cars and 7 houses, and is one of the richest men in the US Senate.

Obama was raised by a single mother on food stamps. He worked hard his entire life to get ahead. After graduating from Harvard he could have done just about anything. Instead of taking a lucrative job as a top Washington lawyer or fortune 500 executive he went to Chicago and worked to revitalize the South Side of Chicago after it was devastated by the closure of steel mills. What an elitist!

Goodbye, Thabo Mbeki

2008-09-21T16:58:00.000-07:00

Thabo Mbeki, President of South Africa for the last 9 years, announced his resignation yesterday. Mr. Mbeki will have a mixed legacy. His efforts to economically liberalize South Africa's economy and move away from the African National Congress's socialist roots are laudable. However, in other areas Mr. Mbeki has sorely dissapointed. His silence in the face of Zimbabwe's electoral crisis may well have led directly to Robert Mugabe being able to hang on to power in that country. He has utterly mishandled the ensuing refugee crisis, as people fleeing the Mugabe regime are now flooding into northeastern South Africa. Hopefully South Africa's next president, likely to be Mbeki's arch rival, Jacob Zuma, will have a more impressive record.

The Election

2008-09-21T16:27:00.000-07:00

One of the more discouraging things about this election year has been the way the presidential race has sucked up all the attention. Its quite startling because it displays a fundamental misunderstanding people seem to have about our government. President are important. They oversee the military, veto or sign legislation, and are is the face of the country to the world. Their powers, however, pale in comparison to the congress. Congress has almost complete purview over domestic policy. Its fair to say that most of the things presidents are credited with doing have been mostly done by congress. Certainly the president's agenda has a huge impact on legislation, and laws presidents champion tend to get lots of support in congress, but in the end all the president gets to do is veto or sign what congress churns out. Every dollar of discretionary spending is appropriated by congress.

If you watch the news you get the impression that the only election being decided this November will be the presidential one. Yet there are 35 seats in the United States Senate and 435 seats in the House of Representatives up for grabs. Why these races don't get attention is beyond me. The Democrats hold a narrow, narrow advantage in the Senate right now, 51 to 49 (and only with the help of two independents.) The Democrats hold a more comfortable advantage in the house, 236 to 199. Many have been disappointed by the relative inaction of the congress since the democrats took over in 2006. This is solely because of the close senate. The house passed loads of legislation, much of which meet a swift death in the senate, where 60 votes are needed to break a philibuster. In November, the democrats have an opportunity to pick up 4-7 seats. If They can get in the upper 50s, maybe 57 or 58 seats, then a President Obama should be able to get much of his agenda through congress, and a President McCain will find his agenda impossible. The next senate will have a massive economic meltdown , looming crises in health care and social security and a climate crisis on its hands. It will be they, not the president, that is on the front lines of these issues.