Today in History

On November 30th:

1609: Galileo first observes the faces of the moon
1774: Thomas Paine arrives in Philadelphia
1782: The British sign a preliminary agreement in Paris recognizing American Independence
1864: In what may be the most important battle of the civil war, Confederate General John Bell Hood is crushed by Union forces under George Henry Thomas at the battle of Franklin. Hood's army is utterly destroyed, wiping away the last battle-hardened standing army in the western theatre
1939: The Russo-Finnish war begins when Stalin invades Finland. Britain and France some to the Finn's defense, and the war is officially ended in March of 1940. The term "Molotov Cocktail" comes out of this war
1954: An Alabama woman is hit by a meteorite, the first modern occurrence of such a thing
1993: Bill Clinton signs the Brady Bill into law

Birthdays: Mark Twain, Winston Churchill, Dick Clark, Abbie Hoffman

Changes

To keep my minuscule reader base informed:

Over the next few weeks I will be posting a series of reviews of this years happenings. I'm starting with Pakistan (see the last post) and will be covering the election, turmoil in Zimbabwe, Kenya, the Congo and Somalia, Russia's resurgence, the economy (maybe) and probably much more. Should be fun

I am also going to start posting historical events that happened every day. It's interesting to know what time of year things happened. I like being able to imagine the weather outside when things happen. Weather is an important thing, it sets the mood of the day and has a huge impact on everything. Knowing what the weather was like during historic events is highly important.

This Day in History

November 29th:

1516: France and Switzerland sign a peace treaty, starting 5 centuries of Swiss neutrality
1887: The U.S. takes possession of Pearl Harbor, Hawaii
1890: Japan's Diet (Congress) holds it's first session
1944: The first open heart surgery takes place
1947: The UN votes to create Israel
1950: US and UN forces begin full-scale retreat from North Korea after Chinese counter invasion
1961: NASA launches Enos, a monkey, into space
1963: Lyndon Johnson establishes the Warren Commission
1990: The UN authorizes military action if Iraq doesn't withdraw from Kuwait
1999: 50,000 protesters gather in Seattle to oppose the WTO

Birthdays: Louisa May Alcott (1832), C.S. Lewis (1898), Adam Clayton Powell Jr. (1908)

South Asia

Our thoughts today should be with the 100 people killed in a terrorist attack in Mumbai. May they rest in peace.

South Asia is such a troubled place. Sri Lanka has been ripping itself apart in a brutal 20-year long civil war. Myanmar is in the deadly grasp of an oppressive military junta. Thailand, once a promising emerging democracy, has been in a state of political paralysis since the 2005 Coup and seems to be slowly tearing itself apart. Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam are all ruled by dictators. Pakistan is in what could only be described as utter chaos. Afghanistan, whose government's power extends little beyond Kabul, is ruled by a mixture of NATO forces, warlords and drug kingpins. India, while a fast-emerging economic power, still has huge problems with terrorism and poverty. Bangladesh has gone through 3 years of military rule after 20 of political stagnation and remains one of the most appallingly impoverished places on Earth.

Other than Africa, South Asia is the most depressing place on the planet. Stopping the political turmoil and violence that has gripped the region for the last 40 years has to be one of the top foreign policy goals of the incoming administration.

There is some reason for hope. India and Pakistan seem to have had an improvement in their relationship recently, and their half-century of feuding may be coming to a close. Bangladesh will be holding it's first free election in years next month. India continues to expand economically and the benefits of their growth should finally hit the poor soon enough.

Then theres the shining star of South Asia: Bhutan. The tiny Himalayan nation tucked between India and China is one of the only bright spots in the world. Bhutan was an absolute monarchy up until 2006, when King Jigme Singye Wangchuck abruptly announced that he would abdicate the throne and turn his country into a democracy. This highly laudable move was almost universally opposed by his people, who wanted the absurdly popular king to stay on as their ruler. Nevertheless, the people of Bhutan had their first election earlier this year. While still a relatively impoverished backwater country, Bhutan has made great strides in recent years. New roads and bridges, hydroelectric power plants, communications infrastructure and schools have marked impressive new era in Bhutan. Hopefully, it will prosper in future.

So today we should all mourn for the 100+ people killed in Mumbai, as well as for the thousands killed in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Afghanistan over the last few years and the million oppressed in Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos. But at the same time, look to Bhutan. This tiny nation has done great things the last few years and is an encouraging sign that good things really can happen in this world.

The Administration Starts to Take Shape

With 3 new cabinet members today we are beginning to get a solid look at what the Obama administration will look like.

What we know so far:

Secretary of State: New York Senator Hillary Clinton (not 100% certain, but highly likely)
Attorney General: Fmr. Deputy Attorney General Eric Holder
Secretary of Commerce: New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Fmr. Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle
Secretary of Homeland Security: Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano
OMB Director: Congressional Budget Office Director Peter Orszag
Chief of Staff: Rahm Emanuel

Other Top Officials:
Chief Advisor: Strategist David Axelrod
Senior Advisor: Obama Senate COS Peter Rouse
Senior Advisor: Valerie Garrett
Deputy Chief of Staff: Jim Messina
Deputy Chief of Staff: Mona Sutphen
White House Counsel: Attorney Greg Craig (a distant cousin of mine)
Press Secretary: Campaign Communications Director Robert Gibbs

Specualtion still abounds for the 12 cabinet posts not yet announced. The following is a list of those jobs with potential candidates, the bold one is the one I think is most likely to get the job.

Secretary of the Treasury: Timothy Geithner, Sheila Bair, Laura Tyson, Larry Summers
Secretary of Defense: Robert Gates, Jack Reed, Richard Danzig, Chuck Hagel
Secretary of the Interior: Jay Inslee,Brian Schweitzer, Christine Gregoire, Ken Salazar, Jay Inslee, Stephanie Herseth Sandling, Robert Kennedy Jr, Carol Browner
Secretary of Agriculture: Tom Vilsack, Collin Peterson, Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, Charlie Stenholm, Tom Buis
Secretary of Labor: Daniel Tarullo ,David Bonior, Linda Chavez-Thompson, Jennifer Granholm, Andy Stern,
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Shriley Franklin, David Gottfried, Federico Pena, Wellington Webb
Secretary of Transportation: Jane Garvey, Jim Oberstar, Ed Rendell, Earl Blumenauer, Steve Heminger
Secretary of Energy: Ernest Moniz, Ed Rendell, Ernest Moniz, Philip Sharp, Earl Blumenauer, Jeff Bingaman, Brian Schweitzer, Jay Inslee,
Secretary of Education: Joel Kline, Jim Hunt, Arne Duncan, George Miller, Linda Darling-Hammond
Secretary of Veteran's Affairs: Tammy Duckworth, Patrick Murphy, Paul Rieckhoff
EPA Administrator: Robert Kennedy Jr., Kathleen McGuinty, Lincoln Chafee, Ed Markey, Christine Gregoire, Jay Inslee, Earl Blumenauer Peter Lehrer, Carol Browner
US Trade Representative: Lael Brainerd, Daniel Tarullo, Cal Dooley

BEGICH WINS!!!!

Mark Begich (D) has defeated Ted Stevens (R) in the Alaska Senate race

Absolutly Fantastic

The AP reports that Begich now leads by 3,700 votes with just 2,000 left to be counted

Ted Stevens, and his series of tubes, is gone

HOLDER TO BE AG

We apparently have our first cabinet member.

Eric Holder has accepted the position of Attorney General in the Obama administration. Holder was deputy AG under Bill Clinton, and was a US Attorney and Judge before that. He also was a member of Obama's VP selection committee.

He will be the first black Attorney General

Holder is a good choice. He is well respected in Washington and has been lauded for his performance as deputy AG. It seems likely that for the first time since Janet Reno we will have an AG that doesn't approve of torturing people. Easily the most impressive thing about him is his opposition to the death penalty.

Holder should have an easy time of confirmation, though his approval of the pardon of Marc Rich in 2001 could hurt him.

Shrivelling Sycophants of Selfishness

I really like alliteration

Sorry about the lack of posts recently, I'm in the process of writing one but its taking longer than I thought and ive been unusually busy recently.

BEGICH TAKES LEAD

Mark Begich has taken a 3 vote lead over Ted Stevens in the Alaska Senate race. With 10,000 more ballots to be counted it could easily go either way, but a Begich win is increasingly possible at this point.

Nothing could be better than beating Ted Stevens, who over the last 40 years has devoted his career to shoveling as much wasteful federal spending to Alaska as remotely possible. Corrupt, abrasive and deplorable, Stevens also has accepted numerous bribes for pork projects, which, of course, is the reason he is also a convicted felon. Cross your fingers that Mark Begich pulls it out.

Great News: Begich Gains on Stevens

Perhaps deplorable senator Ted Stevens (R-AK) hasn't been reelected after all. Tens of thousands of uncounted ballots are still being processed, but so far Stevens's 3,000 vote lead has shrunk to 900. Stay tuned, this race may well still turn to the democrats, though i would still bet Stevens holds on.

Dean will Step Down

Howard Dean, Chairman of the Democratic Party, has announced that he will step down when his term expires in January. Since he became DNC chair in 2005 the Democrats have won the presidency, picked up 52 house seats, 12 senate seats and 9 governorships. His "50 State Strategy", which was designed to make the democrats competitive in every states, has been remarkably successful. The democrats have since picked up heavily republican house seats in places like Idaho, Mississippi, and Alabama. Since he became chair, the democrats have become a truly national party again, with huge gains in the south and west at all levels, a strong presence in the midwest and total dominance of the northeast.
Dean, a doctor, is rumored to be a contender for the job of Secretary of Health and Human Services in Obama's cabinet, and regardless he will still be a big player in American politics.
What is next for the DNC is unclear. It seems that Dean is stepping down in large part to give control of the DNC to the Obama White House. It is unclear if Obama wants to appoint a DNC chair that will be a 2012 campaign manager-in-waiting, a placeholder or a chief fundraiser. There are a lot of names being talked about, including Deputy Campaign Manager Steve Hildebrand, Iowa Campaign Director Paul Tewes, Campaign Manager David Plouffe, 2000 Gore Campaign Manager Donna Brazile and Party Secretary Alice Germond. Hildebrand and Tewes seem to be the early frontrunners. It is also possible that the DNC will revert to having 2 chairs, a figurehead general chairman, and a day-to-day operater. In that case potential General Chairman Candidates might include Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, and Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill.

Could The Democrats Still Win Alaska?

One of Tuesday's biggest surprises came from Alaska. Rep. Don Young (R) and Sen. Ted Stevens (R) had been left for dead before election night. All the polls showed the unpopular and blatantly corrupt duo being defeated. Then, the results came in. It was close but both led throughout the night. Though the race still hasn't officially been called it has become apparent that Young has been reelected. Stevens' on the other hand, may not have had the win that most (including me) thought. Stevens currently holds a 3,300 vote advantage over Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich (D). Politicalwire is reporting, however, that there are enough absentee ballots, and enough of those ballots could conceivably be votes for Begich, that Stevens may still lose. It seems doubtful, however, and Stevens is likely the winner, but there is a glimmer of hope that Stevens, one of the worst examples of everything that is bad about politicians, will still go down.

My Predictions

Overall, I did pretty well. I underpredicted Obama's margin in the electoral college, he ended up with 364 electoral votes, 26 more than the 338 i predicted. I overpredicted the number of democratic seats in the house. I thought we'd see a 26 seat gain, when its all over it will be closer to 20 or 21, but being off by only 5 or 6 out of 435 seats isn't bad. I only got one senate seat, Alaska, wrong.

Heres all the races I got wrong

PRESIDENT
Indiana: Obama (D) beat McCain (R)
North Carolina: Obama (D) beat McCain (R)

SENATE
Alaska: Stevens (R) apparently beat Begich (D)

HOUSE
Alaska At-Large: Young (R) beat Berkowitz (D)
California 4th: McClintock (R) apparently beat Brown (D)
Florida 25th: Diaz-Balart (R) beat Garcia (D)
Illinois 10th: Kirk (R) beat Seals (D)
Indiana 3rd: Souder (R) beat Montagano (D)
Kansas 2nd: Jenkins (R) beat Boyda (D)
Minnesota 3rd: Paulsen (R) beat Madia (D)
Ohio 1st: Driehaus (D) beat Chabot (R)
Pennsylvania 11th: Kanjorski (D) beat Barletta (R)
Virginia 2nd: Nye (D) beat Drake (R)
Virginia 5th: Perriello (D) apparently beat Goode (R)

Govenor
North Carolina: Perdue (D) beat McCrory (R)

The Results

Barack Obama has been elected president of the United States with 364 electoral votes and 53% of the popular vote. McCain won 174 electoral votes and 46%. The precise score is not yet known, but the democrats have picked up at least 5 senate seats and 2o house seats.

The Following are State-by-State Results from last night's election (in alphabetical order):

ALABAMA
President: McCain , as expected, wins
Senate: Jeff Sessions easily reelected
House: Bobby Bright (D) picks up the heavily republican seat of retiring congressman Terry Everett (R); Democrat Parker Griffith retains retiring Congressman Bud Cramer's marginal seat (Congressional Delegation: 4R 3D)

ALASKA
President: McCain easily wins Sarah Palin's home state
Senate: In big surprise, republican incumbent and convicted felon Ted Stevens is holding a small lead, race not yet called
House: Embattled Congressman Don Young, who many left for dead months ago, has apparently managed to win reelection, another big surprise (Congressional Delegation: 1R)

ARIZONA
President: Despite some uncertainty, McCain wins his home state
House: Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick wins the seat of retiring Republican Rick Renzi; Prominent Republican Congressman John Shadegg reelected despite tough challenge from Bob Lord; Vulnerable Democratic Reps. Harry Mitchell and Gabrielle Giffords both reelected (Congressional Delegation: 5D, 3R)

ARKANSAS
President: McCain wins, as expected
Senate: Mark Pryor crushed Green Candidate Rebekah Kennedy (the republicans failed to run a candidate)
House: No house incumbents were even challenged (Congressional Delegation: 3D, 1R)

CALIFORNIA
President: Obama wins California with massive margin
House: 4th district race between McClintock (R) and Brown (D) on knife edge and not yet called (McClintock has 400 vote lead); McNerney (D) reelected in the 11th district; Vulnerable Republicans Lungren, Dreier, Bono, Rohrabacher and Bilbray reelected; (Congressional Delegation: 34D, 18R 1 Too Close to Call)
Props: Prop 1 (Trains) Passes; Prop 2 (Treatment of Animals) Passes; Prop 3 (Children's Hospitals) Passes; Prop 4 (Parental Notification) Fails; Prop 5 (Rehab) Fails; Prop 6 (Police and Penalties) Fails; Prop 7 (Renewable Energy) Fails; Prop 8 (Gay Marriage Ban) Passes; Prop 9 (Victim's Rights) Passes; Prop 10 (Alternative Energy) Fails; Prop 11 (Redistricting) Apparently Passes; Prop 12 (Veteran's) Passes
Sacramento Mayor: Kevin Johnson beats Heather Fargo

COLORADO
President: Obama convincingly wins 04 Bush State
Senate: Mark Udall romps to victory to take retiring Republican Wayne Allard's seat
House: Democrat Betsy Markey beats longtime Democratic Target Marilyn Musgrave in the 4th District; Democrat Jared Polis takes Udall's house seat; Mike Coffman (R) easily takes retiring congressman Tom Tancredo's seat

CONNECTICUT
President: Obama easily wins
House: Democrat Jim Himes beats Republican Incumbent Chris Shays; Freshman Democrats Murphy and Courtney easily win

DELAWARE
President: Obama easily wins Biden's home state
Senate: Biden reelected to the Senate
Governor: Jack Markell (D) elected Governor

FLORIDA
President: Obama, in perhaps the most important result of the night, wins Florida
House: Democrats Suzanne Kosmas and Alan Grayson defeat republican house incumbents in the Orlando Area; Scandal-plagued Democratic Congressman Tim Mahoney loses to Tom Rooney; Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and the Diaz-Balart brothers reelected in South Florida

GEORGIA
President: McCain wins
Senate: Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss forced into runoff with Democrat Jim Martin
House: Vulnerable Democratic Reps Jim Marshall and Jim Barrow both reelected

HAWAII
President: Obama wins a whooping 70% o the vote in his birth state

IDAHO
President: McCain easily wins
Senate: Republican Jim Risch elected to Larry Craig's Senate Seate
House: Walt Minnick (D) defeats unpopular Rep. Bill Sali (R) despite republican nature of the district

ILLINOIS
President: Obama handily wins his home state
Senate: Majority Whip Dick Durin (D) reelected to the senate
House: Democrat Debbie Halvorson easily captures the house seat of retiring republican Jerry Weller; Vulnerable Republicans Roskam, Kirk and Biggert reelected. Aaron Schock (R) wins Ray LaHood's seat; Melissa Bean (D) easily reelected

INDIANA
President: In somewhat of an upset, Obama wins Indiana, the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson
Governor: Republican Governor Mitch Daniels, once thought to be vulnerable, easily wins reelection
House: Republican Mark Souder wins reelection; First-term Democrats Brad Ellsworth, Baron Hill, and Joe Donnelly all easily reelected

IOWA
President: Iowa switches from red to blue, Obama wins easily
Senate: Democrat Tom Harkin wins easily
House: All incumbents reelected

KANSAS
President: McCain wins easily
Senate: Republican Pat Roberts wins reelection
House: First-term Democrat Nancy Boyda loses reelection to Republican Lynn Jenkins; Dennis Moore (D) reelected

KENTUCKY
President: McCain wins
Senate: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell defeats Bruce Lunsford
House: Brett Guthrie (R) wins retiring Rep. Ron Lewis (R)'s seat; Fmr. Congresswomen Anne Northup (R) unsuccessful in comeback attempt against Rep. John Yarmuth (D)

LOUISIANA
President: McCain wins
Senate: Mary Landrieu, the only vulnerable senate democrat, is reelected
House: Republican Bill Cassidy beats Democrat Don Cazayoux, with the help of a spoiler; Chuck Boustany reelected in surprising landslide; 2nd and 4th districts head to December runoff

MAINE
President: Obama wins all 4 of Maine's electoral votes
Senate: Despite aggressive challenge from Democrat Tom Allen, Senator Susan Collins (R) easily wins reelection
House: Chellie Pingree elected to replace Tom Allen in the house

MARYLAND
President: Obama wins in a walk
House: In a huge surprise, Democrat Frank Kratovil leads Republican Andy Harris in the heavily republican 1st district. Kratovil has a 900 vote lead, but the race is too close to call.

MASSACHUSETTS
President: Obama easily wins the most liberal state in the country
Senate: John Kerry easily reelected

MICHIGAN
President: Obama wins by 16 points in what should be a swing state
Senate: Carl Levin (D) easily reelected
House: Democrats Mark Schauer and Gary Peters unseat Republican Incumbents in the Detroit Suburbs

MINNESOTA
President: Obama
Senate: In one of the closest races in the nation senator Norm Coleman (R) leads comedian Al Franken (D) by 400 votes. A recount is underway.
House: Controversial Congresswomen Michele Bachmann surprisingly wins reelection; Republican Erik Paulsen wins retiring congressman Jim Ramstad (R)'s seat

MISSISSIPPI
President: McCain
Senate: Thad Cochran easily wins, Roger Wicker, a senator since last December, reelected in a close race
House: Special Election winner Travis Childers wins; Gregg Harper (R) takes retiring congressman Chip Pickering (R)'s seat

MISSOURI
President: McCain pulled out Missouri with a tiny polarity
Governor: Democrats Jay Nixon easily elected Governor
House: Republicans pull out wins in the competitive 6th and 9th districts.

MONTANA
President: John McCain won here by a small margin
Senate: Max Baucus destroyed a gadfly to win another term in office
Governor: Uber-popular Governor Brian Schweitzer reelected

NEBRASKA
President: McCain wins all 5 of the states electoral votes
Senate: Mike Johanns (R) has defeated Scott Kleeb to take Republican Chuck Hagel's senate seat
House: Lee Terry (R) barely reelected in Omaha

NEVADA
President: Obama wins Nevada big
House: Democrat Dina Titus defeats Republican incumbent Jon Porter; Dean Heller reelected

NEW HAMPSHIRE
President: Obama wins by 10 points
Senate: Fmr. Governor Jeanne Shaheen has defeated Republican Incumbent John Sununu in one of the marquee senate races of this year
House: First-term democrats Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes reelected

NEW JERSEY
President: Obama with a significant margin
Senate: Somewhat vulnerable senator Frank Lautenberg (D) wins reelection
House: Democrat John Adler narrowly wins retiring Republican Jim Saxton's seat; Republican Leonard Lance barely holds on to retiring Republican Mike Ferguson's seat; Vulnerable republicans LoBiondo, Smith and Garrett reelected

NEW MEXICO
President: Obama wins easily
Senate: Tom Udall (D) crushes Steve Pearce (R) to take retiring Republican Pete Domenici's seat
House: Democrats sweep the New Mexico delegation, with Martin Heinrich and Harry Teague picking up republican seats and Ben Lujan holding Tom Udall's house seat

NEW YORK
President: Obama takes Clinton Country
House: Democrats Mike McMahon, Eric Massa and Dan Maffei pick up republican seats; Vulnerable Dems John Hall, Kirsten Gillibrand and Mike Arcuri reelected. Republican Chris Lee win retiring republican Tom Reynolds' seat

NORTH CAROLINA
President: Not yet called, but Barack Obama seems likely to win here
Senate: Kay Hagan (D) unseats Liddy Dole (R) in a hugely important race
Governor: Bev Perdue (D) defeats Pat McCrory (R)
House: Larry Kissell (D) easily beats incumbent Republican Robin Hayes; Heath Shuler reelected

NORTH DAKOTA
President: Despite predicted close race, McCain easily wins
Governor: Governor John Hoeven cruises to reelection

OHIO
President: Obama's early win here, the first in a big swing state, sealed his victory
House: Democrats Steve Driehaus and John Boccieri pick up republican seats. Steve Stivers (R) wins the 15th; Space reelected in the 18th; Republicans Austria, Neuhardt, Schmidt, Tiberi and LaTourette win

OKLAHOMA
President: McCain wins this deep red states
Senate: Jim Inhofe easily reelected

OREGON
President: Obama
Senate: Knife Edge race between Jeff Merkley (D) and Gordon Smith(R) lots of votes left to be counted, but its looking like Merkley will win in the end
House: Kurt Schrader has been elected to replace retiring congresswoman Darlene Hooley. Both are Dmeocrats

PENNSYLVANIA
President: In one of the most decisive calls of the night, Obama takes Pennsylvania
House: Kathy Dahlkemper knocks off Phil English in Erie; Glenn Thompson holds retiring congressman John Peterson's seat for the GOP; Vulnerable Democratic Incumbents Altmire, Carney, Kanjorski and Murtha reelected; Vulnerable republicans Jim Gerlach and Tim Murphy reelected

RHODE ISLAND
President: The ocean state goes overwhelmingly for Obama
Senate: Jack Reed reelected, he is a top contender Secretary of Defense

SOUTH CAROLINA
President: South Carolina goes McCain
Senate: Lindsay Graham, McCain's best friend in the Senate, is reelected
House: Rep. Henry Brown (R) fends off a strong challenge from Linda Ketner (D)

SOUTH DAKOTA
President: McCain wins underwhelming
Senate: Senator Tim Johnson, who has had big health problems, is reelected

TENNESSEE
President: McCain takes the volunteer state
Senate: Senator Lamar Alexander (R) crushes Bob Tuke (D)
House: Phil Roe elected to succeed Rep. David Davis, who Roe beat in the Republican primary

TEXAS
President: McCain takes the 2nd biggest electoral prize
Senate: John Cornyn reelected
House: Pete Olson (R) takes back Tom DeLay's old district, beating Rep. Nick Lampson; Vulnerable Republicans McCaul and Culberson reelected, Ciro Rodriquez wins

UTAH
President: McCain easily wins one of the most republican states in the country
Governor: Governor Huntsman (R) decimates Bob Springmeyer (D)

VERMONT
President: Obama's first win of the night
Governor: Jim Douglas reelected, Democrat Gaye Symington and Progressive Anthony Pollina fight for second place

VIRGINIA
President: In a decisive win, Obama takes Virginia
Senate: Beloved Fmr. Governor Mark Warner (D) destroys Jim Gilmore (R) by 30 percent to pick up the seat of retiring republican John Warner
House: In one of the most shocking house races of the night, thought-to-be-safe Congressman Virgil Goode is trailing Tom Perreiello by less than a hundred votes and has apparently lost, though a recount is underway; In another big surprise Glenn Nye (D) unseats Congresswomen Thelma Drake (R); Gerry Connolly (D) easily wins the Northern Virginia seat of retiring retiring republican Tom Davis (R); Frank Wolf (R) is reelected

WASHINGTON
President: Obama takes reliably democratic Washington
Governor: This race was expected to be almost dead even, but Governor Christine Gregoire has comfortably beat Fmr. State Senator Dino Rossi
House: Though its not yet official, it appears that Rep. Dave Reichert (R) has, for the second time, narrowly beaten Darcy Burner (D)

WEST VIRGINIA
President: McCain
Senate: Jay Rockefeller (D) cruises to reelection
Governor: Governor Joe Manchin (D) reelected in a cake walk
House: Perennial target Shelley Moore Capito (R) holds on

WISCONSIN
President: In 2004 this was the closest state. This time, it has gone comfortably for Obama
House: Steve Kagen (D) reelected

WYOMING
President: McCain wyoms to victory
Senate: Both Barrasso (R) and Enzi (R) reelected with over 70% of the vote
House: Cynthia Lummis (R) elected to replace retiring congresswoman Barbara Cubin (R)

Looking Back at Last Night

Yestarday's election will probably go down in history as one of the best in history.

Over the next few hours and days i plan to post lots of analysis, results, and my thoughts on the future. I'll also have my scorecard on how accurately i predicted this election (I can tell you right now, i was wayyyyyy off on the House of Representatives)

Congress

A lot of surprising results for congress, and while I couldn't possibly post anything comprehensive right now, here are some races that caught my eye:

North Carolina Senate: Other than the Presidency, my favorite result of the night. Kay Hagan is fantastic

Virginia 5th: In a huge shock, Virgil Goode is almost tied with his challenger, Tom Perriello. No one thought this would be this close, but Perriello actually leads by 1,000 votes, and apparently has won this seat. Goode is terrible, one of the worst of the right wing of the republican party. I've always despised the man. If this continues, it will be a great thing

New York 24th: Another big surprise. Mike Arcuri was expected to easily win his reelection race, but he leads by just 1,000 votes. How this happened I dont know but its a huge surprise.

New Mexico 1, 2 and 3: The democrats have swept the New Mexico Delegation. Before this election New Mexico's 5 member congressional delegation (2 Senator+3 Reps) was republican majority, 3-2. Now its democrats 5-0. Udall won the senate seat, Martin Heinrich picked up CD1, Harry Teague, in an upset, won heavily republican CD2, and Ben Lujan defended Udall's CD3.

Pennsylvania 3rd: Kathy Dahlkemper's win of this district is one that made me really happy, mainly because i predicted she would win both the primary and general months ago and it ended up happening.

Colorado 4th: It's always good when an uber-conservativ bigot loses (conservative in the Christian right sense, there really needs to be a separate word for real conservatives and social conservatives who aren't really "conservatives".) Marilyn Musgrave, in addition to being the most rabidly anti-gay member of congress, has a rather egregious lack of intelligence. Winning this seat is nice

There are loads of others to talk about, and ill have a comprehensive election result analysis in the next few days.

President-Elect Barack Obama

I could not possibly portray my emotions right now properly. This is the greatest day of my life.

IT'S OVER!

BARACK OBAMA WINS

NBC HAS CALLED OHIO FOR BARACK OBAMA

McCAIN CANNOT WIN WITHOUT OHIO

BARACK OBAMA IS THE PRESIDENT-ELECT

Obama Victory Likely

Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. All he needs to do is win one of the following states: Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida. Hes up in 3 (Florida, Ohio and North Carolina) and narrowly behind in two (Virginia, Indiana). The two hes behind in are both trending towards him. The chances of him loosing all of these states is very low, so Obama is almost certainly the winner.

Boy was I wrong

Mark Souder has easily beaten Mike Montagano. I had predicted a Montagano win and was very wrong.

Suanne Kosmas has won though, the first pickup of the night

HAGAN WINS; OBAMA TAKES PENNSYLVANIA

Kay Hagan, my favorite senate candidate this year, has unseated Liddy Dole. Absolutly fantasitc. It's also looking like Obama has won Pennsylvania. Beautiful

First Results

Obama takes Vermont, McCain takes Kentucky.

Governor Mitch Daniels reelected in Indiana.

Mark Warner has been elected to replace John Warner in the Senate

I'm not nervous

I've been confident that Obama will win this race for a while now, but ive always though that when push comes to shove id be pretty nervous tonight. But im not, in fact with no results coming in yet im doneright bored (though results are coming now from IN and KY so im getting excited.) Im confident were going to win, and this will be a great night.

First polls close, huge turnout projected

The first polls in Indiana and Kentucky have closed. Huge turnout projected as long lines are abundant throughout the country. Start watching Marion County, Indiana. If Obama wins in a blow out there then he may well carry Indiana. If he only wins it by a small margin, then Indiana will probably go McCain. We wont really know that much untill polls close in Lake County in an hour.

One Hour

Polls close in one hour in parts of Indiana and Kentucky. Indiana, of course, is a key swing state, but Lake County, the only democratic stronghold in the state, wont report until 4:00 (7 Eastern), so we wont know anything about the presidential race for awhile. We will, however, begin seeing results from the 3rd Congressional District, where Democrat Mike Montagano has a shot at taking out Republican Congressman Mark Souder. We will also see results from the Kentucky 3rd and the Indiana 8th and 9th, though the democratic incumbents will probably be reelected in those seats.

It's Here

Its election Day. Im excited

For those of you looking for results, CNN has the best online results: http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/president/

I'll be watching MSNBC, but will keep my eye on C-SPAN

I will also be posting on this blog throughout the night, so check back.

GO VOTE

For those of you who can, get out there and cast a vote, no excuses.

I'd give anything to be able to vote this year.

Correction

On my long list of prediction i forgot the Governorship of West Virginia. Democratic Governor Joe Manchin will crush Russ Weeks to win a second term

OBAMA WINS DIXVILLE NOTCH

In the first returns of the 2008 election Barack Obama has won the small New Hampshire town of Dixville notch 15 to 6. Dixville Notch traditionally casts its votes at midnight and reports several minutes latter (for the full story: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dixville_Notch) No democrat has won Dixville Notch since 1968. Obama's win there hopefully will kickstart a great election night.

Part 4: The Presidency

Barack Obama will be elected president of the United States with 338 electoral votes and 53-55% of the popular vote. John McCain will have 200 electoral votes and 44-46% of the vote, with Ralph Nader, Bob Barr, Cynthia McKinney and Alan Keyes combined at 1-3% of the vote.

Following are my state by state projections, the number after the state is the number of electoral votes, the number after the candidate is the predicted margin of victory. In the map above dark state are states I'm sure will go to one side, light states are ones i could be wrong about.

State-by-State (Swing States in Bold)
Alabama(9): McCain+19
Alaska(3): McCain +20
Arizona(10): McCain +6
Arkansas(6): McCain +15
California(55): Obama +23
Colorado(9): Obama +10
Connecticut(7): Obama +22
Delaware(3): Obama +29
District of Columbia(3): Obama +84
Florida(27): Obama +2
Georgia(15): McCain +10
Hawaii(4): Obama +22
Idaho(4): McCain +20
Illinois(21): Obama +28
Indiana(11): McCain +1
Iowa(7): Obama +11
Kansas(6): McCain +18
Kentucky(8): McCain +10
Louisiana(9): McCain +16
Maine(4): Obama +16
Maryland(10): Obama +20
Massachusetts(12): Obama +28
Michigan(17): Obama +8
Minnesota(10): Obama +10
Mississippi(6): McCain +14
Missouri(11): McCain +0
Montana(3): McCain +3
Nebraska(5): McCain +14
Nevada(5): Obama +2
New Hampshire(4): Obama +15
New Jersey(15): Obama +17
New Mexico(5): Obama +11
New York(31): Obama +27
North Carolina(15): McCain +1
North Dakota(3): McCain +6
Ohio(20): Obama +1
Oklahoma(7): McCain +24
Oregon(7): Obama +16
Pennsylvania(21): Obama +6
Rhode Island(4): Obama +36
South Carolina(8): McCain +18
South Dakota(3): McCain +8
Tennessee(11): McCain +21
Texas(34): McCain +25
Utah(5): McCain +35
Vermont(3): Obama +34
Virginia(13): Obama +7
Washington(11): Obama +14
West Virginia(5): McCain+9
Wisconsin(10): Obama +9
Wyoming(3): McCain +18

Predictions Part 3 Congress Summary

This is part 3, a summary of the congressional predictions of the last two posts

SENATE
Democrats: 57 or 58 (+7)
Republicans: 43 or 42 (-7)
(its 56 or 57 because its unclear if Joe Lieberman will be caucusing as a democrat or a republican next year)

Democratic Gains
Alaska (Begich beats Stevens)
Colorado (Udall beat Schaffer)
New Hampshire (Shaheen beats Sununu)
New Mexico (Udall beats Pearce)
North Carolina (Hagan beats Dole)
Oregon (Markley beats Smith)
Virginia (Warner beats Gilmore)

My 7 seat predicted gain is definitely the minimum possible gained seats, in fact i would predict at least one other will fall to the democrats, whether it be Minnesota, Kentucky, Georgia or Mississippi.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Democrats: 262 (+26)
Republicans: 173 (-26)

Democratic Gains
Alabama 2nd
Alaska At-Large
Arizona 1st
California 4th
Colorado 4th
Connecticut 4th
Florida 8th
Florida 24th
Florida 25th
Idaho 1st
Illinois 10th
Illinois 11th
Indiana 3rd
Louisiana 4th
Maryland 1st
Michigan 7th
Michigan 9th
Minnesota 3rd
Minnesota 6th
Nevada 3rd
New Jersey 3rd
New Mexico 1st
New Mexico 2nd
New York 13th
New York 25th
New York 29th
North Carolina 8th
Ohio 16th
Pennsylvania 3rd
Virginia 11th

Republican Gains
Florida 16th
Louisiana 6th
Pennsylvania 11th
Texas 22nd

Election Predictions Part 2: Montana to Wyoming

This is part 2 of my predictions for tomorrow. Part 3, the presidential race and congressional numbers, will be posted in a few hours.

MONTANA
Senate (Baucus, D) - Max Baucus will easily win reelection over gadfly republican Bob Kelleher. Democratic Hold

Governor (Schweizter, D) - Brian Schweizter, one of the rising stars in democratic politics, will easily win reelection over Republican State Senator Roy Brown. Democratic Hold

NEBRASKA
Senate (Hagel, R) - Republican Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns will easily defeat Democrat Scott Kleeb to replace Chuck Hagel in the Senate. Republican Hold

CD2 (Terry, R) - Democratic Jim Esch had make a great run at this Omaha-based seat, but incumbent Lee Terry will be reelected. Republican Hold

NEVADA
CD2 (Heller, R) - Dean Heller will win a second term with an unimpressive victory over Jill Derby. Republican Hold

CD3 (Porter, R) Jon Porter has had a series of tough races in this Las Vegas suburbs district. This year is his toughest challenge yet. The democrats are running Dina Titus, a former State Senate President and the Democrat's 2006 gubernatorial nominee. This will be one of the closest races in the country, but Titus will beat Porter. Democratic Pick Up

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Governor (Lynch, D) - John Lynch is one of the most beloved governors in the country and will romp Republican Joe Kenney to win a 3rd term. Democratic Hold

CD1 (Shea-Porter, D) - No result in 2006 was more shocking than Shea-Poter's defeat of Congressman Jeb Bradley. She beat an establishment democrat in the primary and was left for dead by the national party. She then ran an almost totally unfunded campaign but still managed to beat the formidable incumbent. This year, Bradley is back for a rematch against Shea-Porter. Shea-Porter will be reelected. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Hodes, D) - First Term Congressman Paul Hodes will easily beat conservative talk show host Jennifer Mann. Democratic Hold

NEW JERSEY
Senate (Lautenberg, D) - This seat has given republicans headaches. Lautenberg is very vulnerable and could be beaten, but the republicans failed to find a good candidate. In fact, their first candidate had a stroke and their second dropped out. They finally settled on Dick Zimmer, a former congressman. Lautenberg will win reelection. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Saxton, R) - After longtime Congressman Jim Saxton announced his retirement and republican failed to find a top tier candidate in this marginal southern New Jersey seat, most expected that Democratic State Senator John Adler would have an easy time winning the seat. Chris Myers, the republican candidate, has run a solid campaign, however, and the race appears to be tied going into election night. Adler will win. Democratic Pick Up

CD5 (Garrett, R) - Some democrats think that Blind Rabbi Dennis Shulman poses a challenge to conservative incumbent Scott Garrett. He won't. Republican Hold

CD7 (Ferguson, R) - After fighting a tough race against Linda Stender in this Suburban district two years ago, Congressman Mike Ferguson is retiring. Stender is running again for the democrats and the republicans are running State Senator Leonard Lance. Both Lance and Stender have run solid campaigns and it's very difficult to predict a winner, but my gut tells me Lance wins this one. Republican Hold

NEW MEXICO
Senate (Domenici, R) - Pete Domenici, a senator since the 70s, is retiring this year. He will be replaced by Democrat Tom Udall, who is a hugely popular congressman. His opponent, Congressman Steve Pearce, is too conservative for this swing state and has an off-putting demeanor. Udall has held a double digit lead since entering the race. Democratic Pick Up

CD1 (Wilson, R) - Prominent congresswoman Heather Wilson ran for the senate this year and lost to Pearce in the primary. 2 years ago she was barely reelected in this 50/50 Albuquerque-based district. Both sides have come up with superb candidate, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White for the republicans and City Councilor Martin Heinrich for the Democrats. This will be a kinfe-edge race, but Heinrich will be on top. Democratic Pick Up

CD2 (Pearce, R) - The 2nd district takes up the low 2/3rds of New Meixico and has been represented for 6 years by Steve Pearce, who is running for senate this year. This district should be republican, but Ed Tinsley, their nominee, has been a weak candidate, and Democrat Harry Teague has run a superb campaign. Teague, a moderate, will win. Democratic Pick Up

CD3 (Udall, D) - Democrat Ben Lujan will easily defeat Republican Dan East to take Tom Udall's heavily democratic Northern New Mexico seat. Democratic Hold

NEW YORK
CD13 (Fossella, R) - One day, someone will turn what happened in this seat to a soap opera. The New York 13th is living proof that politics is absolutely fascinating. Republican Vito Fossella, who has represented this Staten Island seat for years, was arrested earlier this year for driving drunk after visiting his mistress and their illegitimate child (he has a real wife and kids in NY, by the way.) He promptly dropped out of his race for reelection. He was replaced by multimillionaire Frank Powers. Then, Powers's estranged son jumped in the race as a libertarian. That was a big problem for Powers-the-Father, as the two have the same name. As if the race hadn't taken enough weird twist and turns already the elder Powers died in June. The republican party then had a mini-war to replace him. In the end they settled on Bob Straniere, though he was such a weak candidate that they tried to get the disgraced Fossella to come back and run again. The democrats, meanwhile, nominated Respected NYC Councilor Mike McMahon, who will crush Straniere by a big margin. Democratic Pick Up

CD19 (Hall, D) - Freshman congressman and former rock star John Hall will easily win reelection over republican Kieran Michael Lalor in this . Democratic Hold

CD20 (Gillibrand, D) - Kirsten Gillibrand represents a republican leaning district in southern New York. She is being challenged Fmr. State Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell, who has run a solid campaign and has been e prolific fundraiser. Gillibrand will be reelected, but by a smaller than expected margin. Democratic Hold

CD21 (McNulty, D) - Democrat Paul Tonko will easily beat Republican Jim Burhmaster to replace Mike McNulty in this Albany-based district. Democratic Hold

CD24 (Arcuri, D) - Mike Arcuri won an epic race in this Utica-based district 2 years ago. THis time around he will beat republican Rich Hanna easily. Democratic Hold

CD25 (Walsh, R) - Fmr. Congressional Aide Dan Maffei will easily snatch this Syracuse seat for the democrats. Long time representative Jim Walsh is stepping down. Democratic Pick Up

CD26 (Reynolds, R) - The 26th, based in the suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, has long been high profile republican Tom Reynolds's district. Reynolds is retiring this year after barely winning in 2006. This is one of the few places where the democrats have had problems. The primary was supposed to be between 04/06 nominee Jack Davis and Iraq War Vet Jon Powers, but a little-known attorney, Alice Kryzan managed to win. Kryzan is an unattractive general election candidate, but her main problem is New York's bizarre election law. NY has a lot of parties, and they can co-nominate candidates. The Working Families Party had already nominated Powers, and he is still on their ballot line. The potential of split votes between Powers and Kryzan make a Lee win likely. Republican Hold

CD29 (Kuhl, R) - This is a solidly republican district, but Randy Kuhl has never been popular. His personal problems have lead to 2 unimpressive wins. This time, he will lose to Eric Massa. (an editorial note: This is one of the worst races in the country, Kuhl is awful, but Massa is running on a ridiculous anti-trade platform, either one will make a terrible congressman) Democratic Pick Up

NORTH CAROLINA
Senate (Dole, R) - Liddy Dole has been a leading republican for thirty years. Her reelection tot he senate, however, is far from certain. Dole has been largely removed from the senate recently, with few bills to her credit. She also has been absent from North Carolina, a newspaper investigation revealed shes spent only 10 days in North Carolina in the last few years. Dole is facing an aggressive challenge from State Senator Kay Hagan. The race has been very close, but in the end Hagan will win. Dole tried a last minute strategy trying to portray Hagan as an atheist, which will hugely backfire. Democratic Pick Up

Governor (Easley, D) - Popular incumbent Mike Easley has been term limited out of the governorship. The democrats have nominated Bev Perdue, the LG, and the republican have nominated Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. McCrory will narrowly win. Republican Pick Up

CD08 (Hayes, R) - 2 years ago Larry Kissell came within a few hundred votes of unseating Robin Hayes in this suburban Charlotte district, despite being ignored by the national demcratic party. This time around, the part has heavily invested in Kissell and this race, and he has a superb, well funded campaign this time around. Hayes has grown unpopular, as his pro-trade stances are unpopular in this district. His problems were compounded when he said "liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God." His comment shave had big backlash and he will lose to Kissell handily. Democratic Pick Up

CD11 (Shuler, D) One term congressman Heath Shuler would have a tough reelection in this conservative Appalachia district was it not for the erratic behavior of his opponent. Carl Mumpower, a city councilor, suspended his campaign when the republican county committees refused to sign a loyalty pledge. Shuler will win easily. Democratic Hold

NORTH DAKOTA
Governor (Hoeven, R) - Hugely popular governor John Hoeven will cruise to reelection. Republican Hold

OHIO
CD1 (Chabot, R) - Steve Chabot represents a battleground Cincinnati district. He narowly was reelected in 2006 and is facing a tough challenge from Steve Driehaus this year. This is a toss up race, but Chabot will narrowly pull out a win. Republican Hold

CD2 (Schmidt, R) - Jean Schmidt, first elected in a 2005 special election, represents one of the most republican district in the country. Yet she is so abrasive and unpopular that she has never won by more than a few percentage points. This year she is facing a rematch with her 2006 opponent, Victoria Wulsin. Schmidt will win, solely because of the republican nature of the district.

CD7 (Hobson, R) - Long time congressman Dave Hobson is retiring form his rural central Ohio district. Steve Austria, a State Senator, will replace him, though his opponent, Sharon Neauhardt, has run a strong campaign. Republican Hold

CD11 (Vacant) - Marcia Fudge will cruise to an easy win to replace Congresswomen Stephanie Tubbs Jones, who died in August. This central Cleveland district is massively democratic. Democratic Hold

CD14 (LaTourette, R) - Steve LaTourette faced a stronger than usual challenge in this Northeastern Ohio district from Bill O'Neill, a judge. LaTourette will win. Republican Hold

CD15 (Pryce, R) - After narrowly pulling out a win in one of the closest races of 2006 congresswomen Deborah Pryce is retiring. The race to replace her between democrat Mary Jo Kilroy and republican Steve Stivers has been contentious. Stivers will win, barely. Republican Hold

CD16 (Regula, R) - After 30 years in the house 80 year old incumbent Ralph Regula is retiring from this Canton-Based district. He will be replaced by democrats John Boccieri, who will beat unimpressive republican Kirk Shcuring. Look for Boccieri to become a rising star, perhaps a senator or governor one day. Democratic Pick Up.

CD18 (Space, D) - Zack Space won this heavily republican southeastern Ohio district by a shockingly big 20 point margin in 2006. His win this time around wont be as big, but he will still beat Republican Bill Dailey. Democratic Hold

OKLAHOMA
Senate (Inhofe, R) - Andrew Rice is a solid Democartic Challenger, but Jim Inhofe will be reelected. Republican Hold

OREGON
Senate (Smith, R) - Gordon Smith is a well-liked low-key moderate. He is not well liked enough, however, to win reelection this year. Oregon is going big for Obama, and State House Speaker Jeff Merkley has run a solid campaign against Smith. Merkley will win, but look for Smith to run for Governor in 2010. Democratic Pick Up

CD5 (Hooley, D) - When Darlene Hooley announced her retirement form this 50/50 Portland Suburbs seat this was seen as a toss up race. Then it was revealed that the republican nominee, staunchly "pro-life" Mike Erickson, paid for a woman he had impregnated to get an abortion. Democrat Kurt Schrader will win easily. Democratic Hold

PENNSYLVANIA
CD3 (English, R) - Phil English usually wins an easy reelection in this marginal Erie-based seat. He is a well-liked moderate and a good politican. This year, however, will be different. With the national wind at the democrat's back and with Kathy Dahlkemper running a good campaign, English will be defeated. Democratic Pick Up

CD4 (Altmire, D) - Jason Altmire was a surprise winner two years ago in this Pittsburgh area seat. Melissa Hart, the rising star republican Altmire beat in 2006, is running again. The centrist Altmire will be reelected. Democratic Hold

CD5 (Peterson, R) - Republican Glenn Thompson will defeat Democrat Mike McCracken to replace John Peterson in this central Pennsylvania District. Republican Hold

CD6 (Gerlach, R) - Jim Gerlach was left for dead in 2006 before running a marvelous campaign and being surprisingly reelected. His formidable political skills scared off potential challngers and the democrats were left with 3rd-tier challenger Bob Roggio. Gerlach will easily win. Republican Hold

CD7 (Sestak, D) - Joe Sestak, a navy admiral, comfortably won 2 years ago. He will do so again, beating Craig Williams in this Suburban Philadelphia district. Democratic Hold

CD8 (Murph, D) - Patrick Murphy, a young Iraq War veteran, barely won this seat 2 years ago. This time, he will be reelected easily over Tom Manion in this Bucks County district. Democratic Hold

CD10 (Carney, D) - Centrist Chris Carney won two years after his opponent's mistresses called the police when he tried to choke her. Carney is facing a tough reelection fight against Chris Hackett in this conservative Northeastern Pennsylvania district. Carney will narrowly win, but is unlikely to keep this seat for long. Democratic Hold

CD11 (Kanjorski, D) - One of the more surprising developments of this campaign has been the vulnerability of Paul Kanjorski. His opponent, Lou Barletta, is well known as mayor of a local town and has run an aggressive campaign. Kanjorski is a curmudgeonly old incumbent and will lose to Barletta in a rare gain for the GOP. Republican Pick Up

CD12 (Murtha, D) - Veteran Congressman John Murtha was cruising to reelection untill a few weeks ago when he implied all of his constituents were racist rednecks. Since then his challenger, William Russell, has gained in the polls. Murtha will win, but by a weak margin. Democratic Hold

CD18 (Murph, R) - Congressman Tim Murph has been under fire for some ethical problems recently, but should hold on against Steve O'Donnell. Republican Hold

RHODE ISLAND
Senate (Reed, D) - Senator Jack Reed, who is at the top of Obama's shortlist for Secretary of Defense, will crush Bob Tingle by a colossal margin. Democratic Hold

SOUTH CAROLINA
Senate (Graham, R) - Senator Lindsay Graham will beat Bob Conley by a big margin. Republican Hold

CD1 (Brown, R) - Who would have though that a gay liberal millionaire woman would make a competitive run at a seat in South Carolina. Linda Ketner has run a strong campaign against the lackluster incumbent, Henry Brown. Ketner has a shot at victory, but Brown will probably win. Republican Hold

SOUTH DAKOTA
Senate (Johnson, D) - The Republicans really wanted to make a run at Tim Johnson, who is in poor health. They weren't able to recruit a good candidate, however, and Johnson will easily beat Joel Dykstra, Democratic Hold

TENNESSEE
Senate (Alexander, R) - High ranking republican Lamamr Alexander will easily defeat Democrat Bob Tuke. Republican Hold

CD1 (Davis, R) - After beating incumbent David Davis in the primary, Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe will crush Bob Russell and head to Washington. Republican Hold

TEXAS
Senate (Cornyn, R) - The democrats missed an opportunity here. John Cornyn is unpopular and Rick Noriega is a strong candiate, but national democrats failed to come through for him. Cornyn will win with an unimpressive margin. Republican Hold

CD7 (Culberson, R) - Democrat Mike Skelly has made a great run at John Culberson, but Culberson will win in this very republican district. Republican Hold

CD10 (McCaul, R) - Despite the republican nature of this district Mike McCaul has won by unimpressive margins two election in a row. He got a huge break in February when a strong challenger was defeated in the primary. McCaul will win reelection, but by another unimpressive margin. Republican Hold

CD22 (Lampson, D) - Nick Lampson won Tom DeLay's old district in 2006 when a technicality forced the Republican Candidate off the ballot. This district is overwhelmingly republican, and Lampson will lose reelection to Pete Olson. Republican Pick Up

CD23 (Rodriquez) - Ciro Rodriquez was elected in an upset in a December 06 runoff after this district was redrawn by the Supreme Court. Rodriquez will face a tough challenge from Lyle Larson, but will win. Democratic Hold

UTAH
Governor (Huntsman, R) - Hugely popular Governor Jon Huntsman will crush democrat Bob Springmeyer. Republican Hold

CD3 (Cannon, R) - After beating incumbent Chris Cannon in the primary a few months ago Jason Chaffetz will easily be elected to congress. Republican Hold

VERMONT
Governor (Douglas, R) - Jim Douglas has been well liked as governor of Vermont and has 3 times won elections solidly. He is facing a tough challenge this year from Gaye Symington, speaker of the state house. Douglas will win, but by a small margin. Look for Symington to run again when Douglas retires. Republican Hold

VIRGINIA
Senate (Warner, R) - Incumbent JOHN Warner, a well respected long time Senator, is retiring. He will be replaced by hugely popular democratic ex-governor MARK Warner, who will crush former republican governor Jim Gilmore in a landslide. Democratic Pick Up

CD2 (Drake, R) - Thelma Drake is facing a tough challenge from Glenn Nye, but will win reelection. Republican Hold

CD5 (Goode, R) - Virgil Goode is facing a surprisingly tough race against Tom Perriello. Goode will win. Republican Hold

CD10 (Wolf, R) - Longtime incumbent Frank Wolf is well respected and immensely popular. He represents an increasingly democratic district, however, and will probably be the last republican to represent this district. He will beat Judy Feder. Republican Hold

CD11 (Davis, R) - Tom Davis, a very influential republican, is retiring this year. He will be replaced by a democrat, Gerry Connolly. This district is at the tip of northern virginia, and has gone from republican to democratic in the last few years. Democratic Pick Up

WASHINGTON
Governor (Gregoire, D) - Christine Gregoire beat Dino Rossi 4 years ago by a few hundred votes, the closest gubernatorial race in history. This year will also be very close, this race is way way too close to call, but Obama will win Washington big and i'll give Gregoire a tiny edge. Democratic Hold

WEST VIRGINIA
Senate (Rockefeller, D) - Jay Rockefeller will crush Jay Wolfe. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Capito, R) - Popular moderate Shelley Moore Capito is usually a democratic target, and is facing her strongest challenge yet from Anne Barth, an aide to Robert Byrd. Barth will come close, but Capito will win. Republican Hold

WISCONSIN
CD8 (Kagen, D) - Steve Kagen beat John Gard by a narrow margin in this Green Bay based district two years ago. This year he will beta Gard by a bigger margin. Democratic Hold

WYOMING
Senate (Barrasso, R and Enzi, R) -Both Wyoming seats are up this year due to the death of Craig Thomas. Both will be held by the Republicans.

CDAt-Large (Cubin, R) - After a tough fight 2 years ago, Barbara Cubin is retiring. She will probably be replaced by Fmr. State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, though democrat Gary Trauner has a chance. Republican Hold.