Predictions Part 1: Alabama to Missouri

Over the next few days i will be posting my predictions on the results of Tuesdays elections. The first 2 will be state by state, every senate and gubernatorial election and all the close house races. Then will be a purely numeric prediction for the house and senate, and finally my prediction on the Presidential Race. This is the first installment, look for the second latter tonight or tomorrow. Please excuse the egregious grammar, ive been in phoenix this weekend and have been utterly exhausted.

(The name after the office is the incumbent, the letter represents his party. CD stands for congressional district)

ALABAMA
Senate (Sessions, R) - A year ago there were high hopes for the democratic challenger, Vivian Davis Figures. She has since been a disappointing challenger, and incumbent Senator Jeff Sessions, a vocal religious right conservative, will win reelection by an overwhelming margin, possibly cracking 66 or 67% of the vote. Republican Hold

CD 1 (Everett, R) - Terry Everett, a low-key republican, is retiring after a long stint in the house. This is very red district, Bush won overwhelmingly here (the district stretches across much of Southeastern Alabama, the heart of Dixie.) When Everett announced his retiring it was universally assumed that the Republican would hold the seat. Since then the district has been a major headache for the GOP. The democrats recruited Bobby Bright, the popular mayor of Montgomery and a conservative democrat. The republicans, meanwhile, had a brutal and nasty primary fight between State Senator Harri Anne Smith and State Representative Jay Love. Love won, but Smith, immensely popular with Christian conservatives, endorsed Bright. All of this will propel Bright to a narrow win over Love. Democratic Pick Up

CD 3 (Rogers, R) - Mike Rogers usually wins reelection in this ruby red district in eastern Alabama. This year, however, he is being challenged by Josh Segall, a moderate democratic whose run a very good campaign. Rogers will still win, but by a reduced margin. Republican Hold

CD 5 (Cramer, D) - Bud Cramer has been beloved as Northern Alabama's congressman for the last 18 years. Now he is stepping aside. This is a very republican district on the presidential level, but Cramer has managed to routinely win landslides and democrats carry this district in statewide election on occasion. The democrats have nominated Parker Griffith, a conservative democrat reminiscent of Cramer. The republican nominated Wayne Parker, who lost to Cramer years ago. Griffith will win by a surprisingly wide margin. Democratic Hold

ALASKA
Senate (Stevens, R) - Ted Stevens has been a senator forever. The 84 year old juggernaut has been prominent in Alaska politics since statehood. His fate was sealed earlier this week, however, when he was convicted of making false statements. He will lose to Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich. It will be nice to see Stevens, the epitome of a cranky old man, leave the senate. The billions of dollars in pork, weird rants on the senate floor and blatant corruption will not be missed. Democratic Pick Up

CD At-Large (Young, R) - Both of Alaska's longtime politicos will fall on Tuesday, as Don Young, another pork-happy corrupt curmudgeon, will fall to democrat Ethan Berkowitz (one of my favorite challengers this year.) Young has consistently trailed Berkowitz all year and will have a hard time pulling out a win, especially as he barely even managed to get renominated (he beat Sarah Palin's Lieutenant Governor in the primary.) Democartic Pick Up

ARIZONA
CD 1 (Renzi, R) - Rick Renzi is retiring this year after being indicted for fraud. This is one of the biggest districts in the country, spanning from the Four Corners to the Grand Canyon to the Phoenix Suburbs. The Democrat, Ann Kirkpatrick, has maintained a massive advantage in this marginal congressional district all cycle and should easily dispatch Sydney Hay, a very conservative lobbyist. Democratic Pick Up

CD 3 (Shadegg, R) - John Shadegg is one of the leading republicans in the house and is a key ally of Mike Pence, a likely future republican leader in the house. Shadegg has a huge roll in republican circles, and has consistently won reelection in this Suburban Phoenix district. Despite his political acumen and the republican nature of the district, Shadegg finds himself with a marginally tough race for reelection against Bob Lord, who has run a stellar campaign. Shadegg will win. Republican Hold

CD5 (Mitchell, D) - 2 Years ago Harry Mitchell knocked off prominent conservative J.D. Hayworth in this republican leaning district. The republican challenger this time around is David Schweikert. Schweikert is a good candidate, and would have a fighting chance was it not for the huge democratic nature of this election cycle. Mitchell has a history of winning close elections, and has been one of the most impressive freshmen int he house this year. He will win reelection by a 4-7 point margin. Democratic Hold

CD8 (Giffords, D) - Gabrielle Giffords won this traditionally republican Tucson-area seat easily in 2006. Like Mitchell, the republicans are running a strong candidate, Popular State Senate President Tim Bee. In a neutral election year this would be a tough race, but with the wind hugely at the Democrats backs Giffords Should win. Also, look for Giffords to move to the governors office or the senate within the next few years, and maybe even run for president one day. Gabrielle Giffords is going places. Democratic Hold

ARKANSAS
Senate (Pryor, D) - The Republicans failed to even field a challenger here, despite the conservative nature of Arkansas. Senator Mark Pryor faces only Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who has a solid shot at 10% of the vote. Democratic Hold

CALIFORNIA
CD 3 (Lungren, R) - Dan Lungren, who represents a republican district in the Suburbs of Sacramento, is under fire for a lobbyist funded vacation in Hawaii and is facing a surprisingly strong challenge from Bill Durston, who lost by 20 points in 2006. Lungren will win again. (Editorial Note: As a resident of the 3rd Distirct id love nothing better than seeing Lungren lose. Hes absolutely awful) Republican Hold

CD 4 (Doolittle, R) - John Doolittle, once one of the top republicans in the house, is stepping down under an ethical cloud regarding his dealings with lobbyist and convicted felon Jack Abramoff. The 4th is a sprawling district, stretching from Orangevale to Oregon, and is extremely conservative. The republican are running State Senator Tom McClintock, one of the leading conservatives in California who is notably for his 3 failed runs at statewide office. This district is one of the most republican in the country, but McClintock is a weak challenger, not only for his abrasive style and off-putting demeanor, but also because he represents a State Senate District hundreds of miles away in Ventura and LA Counties. The democratic Nominee is Fmr. Air Force Colonel Charlie Brown, who came within a few hundred votes of beating Doolittle in 2006. Brown is an impressive challenger, and this time aroung will win, narrowly beating McClintock (though he is unlikely to hold this crimson seat for long.) Democratic Pick Up

CD 11 (McNerney, D) - McNerney is very liberal, but holds a republican district. The 11th, which takes in parts of Stockton and Tracy, was long the stronghold of Republican Richard Pombo, before McNerney shockingly beat Pombo in 2006. The republicans had high hopes for this district, but McNerney has remained popular and the GOP nominee, Dean Andal, has had some personal problems. Look for McNerney to win this time around, though he is likely toast in future (unless he's redistricted into a more democratic district in 2012.) Democratic Hold

CD 26 (Dreier, R) - David Dreier has represented the 26th, which takes in Northern Los Angeles County, since 1980 and is one of the top republicans in the house. His distirct has gone from being staunchly republican to being more marginal in recent years, and many believe that the immensly popular Dreier will be one of the last republicans to hold this seat. Dreier is facing Russ Warner, who has run a well organized campaign. Dreier will win. Republican Hold

CD 44 (Calvert, R) - Ken Calvert, who represents Riverside in the House, has had an ethical cloud over his head for years. In the 90s he was arrested after being discovered sitting in a car getting head from a prostitute. A few years ago his came under suspicion for some fishy land deals. Yet he still consistently wins reelection. This year will be no different and Calvert will beat challenger Bill Hedrick by a solid margin. Republican Hold

CD 45 (Bono Mack, R) - Mary Bono, wife of the late Sonny Bono and now husband of Florida Congressman Connie Mack IV, represnt's Sonny's old district, which streches from San Bernardino out across the desert to the Arizona border, and includes Palm Springs and Indio. It is a marginal district, but Bono Mack is personally popular, and will probably beat her challenger, Julie Bornstein. Republican Hold

CD 46 (Rohrabacker, R) - This conservative Huntington Beach district is the stomping ground of outspoken conservative Dana Rohrabacher. Rohrabacher is facing a surprisingly strong challenge this year from Debbie Cook, the mayor of Huntington Beach. Rohrabacher will win. Republican Hold

CD 50 (Bilbray, R) - Brian Bilbray will beat challenger Nick Leibham by a solid margin in this conservative San Diego district. Some think Leibham has a chance, but they are delusional. Republican Hold

CD 52 (Hunter, R) - Duncan Hunter has represented this conservative San Diego district for years. After a quixotic presidential campaign Hunter decided not to run for reelection. His son, also named Duncan Hunter, will win this seat for the GOP. Republican Hold

COLORADO
Senate (Allard, R) - Republican Incumbent Wayne Allard announced back in 2007 that he would not stand for another term. Even if he had, this would have been a top senatorial battleground this year. Mark Udall, a rising star congressman from Boulder and the son of the legendary Mo Udall, started running for this seat in 2005. The republicans had some difficulty recruiting a candidate, but eventually settled on Bob Schaffer, a conservative Fmr. congressman who lost the 2004 GOP nomination to Pete Coors. Schaffer has been a disspointment for the republicans, and their hopes of winning this seat have wained significently in the last few months. In a typical election cycle this would probably be a close race, but Udall's popularity combined with the huge wind at his back will give Udall an easy win. Democratic Pick Up

CD2 (Udall, D) - Jared Polis, a wealthy businessman, will easily beat Scott Starin to take Mark Udall's seat in congress. Polis will join Barney Frank and Tammy Baldwin as the only openly gay members of congress. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Salazar, D) - John Salazar represents the republican Western Slope of Colorado. In a typical election year he might be challenged, but this year republicans have essentially ceded his seat, nominating a very weak challenger, County Commisioner Wayne Wolf, who will lose in a landslide. Democratic Hold

CD4 (Musgrave, R) - Marilyn Musgrave is one of the most conservative members of the house of representatives. She is famed for her abrasive style and her dubious respect for house ethics rules. She is very unpopular, but represents a solidly republican district that stretches across the plains of eastern Colorado. She has consistently been a democratic target, and narrowly bested democratic challengers the last 3 cycles (she was reelected with just 46% of the vote last time around.) This time is her toughest campaign yet. In addition to the national democratic advantage this cycle, the democrats have nominated Betsy Markey, a former aide to popular Senator Ken Salazar and a solid campaigner. Markey will win. Democratic Gain

CD6 (Tancredo, R) - Tom Tancredo decided to retire after making an abortive run for the Presidency. The republicans have nominated Mike Coffman, who has had a rocky tenure as Colorado Secretary of State. Despite personal problems, Coffman will beat Democrat Hank Eng in this staunchly republican district in the Denver Suburbs. Republican Hold

CONNECTICUT
CD2 (Courtney, D) - 2 Years ago Joe Courtney beat incumbent Rob Simmons by 52 votes, the narrowed margin of any race that year. Courtney will have an easier time of reelection. His opponent, Sean Sullivan, was initially thought of as a strong challenger to Courtney, but has turned out to be an anemic fundraiser and weak campaigner. Courtney will win reelection easily. Democratic Hold

CD4 (Shays, R) - Chris Shays, who represents Stamford and Bridgeport in the House, is one of the last of a dieing breed: Moderate to Liberal New England republicans. He is, actually, the only Republican congressman from New England (in a delegation of 32.) Shays has a voting record to the left of many democrats and is very popular in his district, but it's democratic nature means that Shays is always a target. In the last 2 cycles he narrowly bested Dianne Farrell. This time around, he is facing Jim Himes, who has run a well funded and disciplined campaign. Himes will defeat Shays by a very narrow margin, perhaps unfortunately. Democratic Pick Up

CD5 (Murphy, D) - For years this western Connecticut district was the stomping ground of Nancy Johnson, before she was defeated in somewhat of a surprise in 2006 by Chris Murphy, a politically gifted rising star in his 30s. Republicans once thought they could retake this district, but they wont, Murphy will easily defeat Republican David Cappiello. Murphy is a rising star and will be a Senator, Governor or House Leader one day. Democratic Hold

DELAWARE
Governor (Minner, D) State Treasurer Jack Markell will easily defeat Bill Lee to take the seat of term limited governor Ruth Ann Minner. Democratic Hold

Senate (Biden, D) - Joe Biden will be reelected to the senate. Assuming he is elected vice president at the same time, he will shortly resign and Governor Minner will appoint a successor to his seat.

FLORIDA
CD8 (Keller, R) - Two years ago Ric Keller beat Charlie Stuart in a close race. This year Keller is locked ina tough race in this Orlando district against Alan Grayson. Keller has been favored most of the cycle, but Grayson has surged recently and will probably unseat Keller. Democratic Pick Up

CD9 (Bilirakis, R) - Gus Bilirakis was elected 2 years ago to succeed his father in this north central Florida district. This time around he faced a marginal challenge from Bill Mitchell. Bilirakis will win. Republican Hold

C10 (Young, R) - Moderate Republican Bill Young has represented this district since the 70s. He will be the last republican to do so, only immense personal popularity has allowed him to win reelection over and over in heavily democratic St. Petersburg. He is facing a challenge from Bob Hackworth, a local mayor. He will win this time, but by a smaller margin than most expect. Expect the democrats to take the seat in 2010 when the Eelderly Young likely retires. Republican Hold

CD 13 (Buchanan, R) - This Sarasota area congressional district has a penchant for drama. In 2002 it elected Katherine Harris, famed for her eccentricity and her role in the 2000 Florida Recount. Then, 2 years ago, Harris ran for senate (losing by a landslide) and this eat became open. That year two friends, Republican Vern Buchanan and Democrat Christine Jennings, ran aginst each other. After a brutal campaign, in which their friendship turned to hatred, the election was very close on election night, and Buchanan unexpectedly won by 300 votes. Then, evidence came to light of voting machine failure in the democratic part of the district. Despite this, Buchanan was inaugurated (though Jennings challenged in court.) This year Jennings is running again. This time, Buchanan will win handily. Jennings handled the aftermath of her defeat terribly (no one likes a sore loser, especially in politics.) Jan Schneider, the democratic nominee in 02 and 04, is running as an independent and will draw significent numbers of votes from Jennings. Republican Hold

CD15 (Weldon, R) - The democrats majorly blew an opportunity here this year. 2 years ago Weldon won reelection with a very weak margin. This year, Weldon is retiring. Despite the potentially competitive nature of this Space Coast district, the democrats failed to recruit a strong candidate, and are running Steve Blythe, a very weak challenger. Republican State Senator Bill Posey will win handily. Republican Hold

CD16 (Mahoney, D) - Like the 13th, this central Florida district has a penchant for drama. In 2006 it's congressman, Mark Foley, resigned in an underage gay sex scandal. The man elected to succeed him, Tim Mahoney, has had one of the worst congressional terms in history. Within weeks of being inaugurated he started complaining about his job, saying it was one of the worst jobs he'd ever had. Earlier this year he published a flier praising veterans, which is all good and well except the pictured veteran's were from the Soviet Union's Red Army. The, a month ago, it was revealed Mahoney has been having multiple affairs with staffers, was paying them not to talk about it and his wife was divorcing him. He will be crushed by Republican Tom Rooney, who presumably, if this seat lives up to it's reputation, will lose 2 years from now in some sort of sex scandal. Republican Pick Up

CD18 (Ros-Lehtinen, R) - The fact that Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is in trouble is a testament to the problems the GOP is having in south Florida. Ros-Lehtinen is a tough veteran of south Florida politics. She is one of a trio of Cubans representing the traditionally republican anti-castro cuban sections of Miami. First elected in 1989 (Jeb Bush was her campaign manager) she has become the top republican on the Foreign Affairs committee and is a formidable force in Florida politics. South Florida, however, is fast changing. The cuban community, long staunchly republican, is shifting to the center. Ros-Lehtinen is facing a surprising challenge from democrat Annette Taddeo. Ros-Lehtinen, however, is in much stronger position than the Diaz-Balart brothers and will probably defeat Ros-Lehtinen. This will be a seat to watch in future. Republican Hold

CD21 (Diaz-Balart, R) - Like Ros-Lehtinen, Lincoln Diaz-Balart, the older of the Diaz-Balart brothers, represents a Cuban Miami area district that is fast shifting to the center. Diaz-Balart, however, is less popular than Ros-Lehtinen and has a stronger challenger. Raul Martinez was mayor of Hialeah, one of the biggest cities in the district, for 24 years. He is an immensely controversial guy. He was very popular as mayor and is one of the more popular cuban democrats. He also was once indicted on corruption and extortion charges, convicted, then had the convictions overturned on appeal. He is a very talented politician, but his spotty past hurts him. Diaz-Balart will narrowly eke out a win here. Republican Hold

CD24 (Feeney, R) - Tom Feeney has been a fixture in Florida politics for years. He was Jeb Bush's running mate in his unsuccessful 1994 gubernatorial bid. He was then the speaker of the Florida House of Representatives during the 2000 recount and was big behind the scenes player in Bush's victory there. Being speaker of the house gives ones certain special privileges, like drawing congressional districts specifically to elect you to congress, and in 2002 he won his hand drawn Orlando area seat handily. Since then he's had a rocky time. He was named one of the 10 most corrupt members of congress by C.R.E.W. in 2006 and has come under fire for a golf trip to Scotland paid for by Jack Abramoff. The corruption allegations have badly hurt him and he will lose to dmeocrat Suzanne Kosmas. Democratic Pick Up

CD25 (Diaz-Balart, R) - Mario, the younger of the Diaz-Balart brothers, is in the same predicament as his brother and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen. His challenger is, surprisingly, the strongest. Joe Garcia has run a very good campaign and may be the democrats best chnce of a pickup in south Florida. Garcia will beat Diaz-Balart by a very narrow margin (this is my pick for closest house race of the year.) Democratic Pick Up

GEORGIA
Senate (Chambliss, R) - Saxby Chambliss, who is hated by the left for his brusing defeat of Max Cleland in 2002, is facing an unexpectedly close race for reelection. Chambliss held a huge lead most of the cycle, then the race inexplicably narrowed in the last month and is now a toss up. Jim Martin, the democratic candidate, is a blue dog democrat and has run a good campaign. This race will depend on two things: black turnout and a potential runoff. Georgia has a rule that if no candidate breaks 50% on election night it goes to a runoff with the top two candidates a month later. There is a libertarian running, and with the closeness of the race it seems unlikely either candidate breaks 50%. The second factor is african american turnout. With Obama at the top of the ticket african american turnout is going to he high. If it is huge, then Martin wins, if it is only big then Chambliss does. Chances are, though, it will go to a high stakes runoff that could decide if the democrats get to 60 seats. I tend to think that Chambliss will narrowly win on tuesday then win the low turnout runoff easily. Republican Hold

CD8 (Marshall, D) - Blue Dog Democrat Jim Marshall barely won his Macon seat 2 years ago. He is a top target of the republican party, but this year will beat his opponent, Fmr. Air Force General Rick Goddard, by a solid margin. Democratic Hold

CD12 (Barrow, D) - Like Marshall, Jim Barrow is a blue dog democrat and a perennial republican target. He barely won in 2006, but this time will handily beat republican John Stone, a rather weak challenger. Democratic Hold

HAWAII
There are no notable races in Hawaii

IDAHO
Senate (Craig, R) - This is Larry Craig's senate seat, but the disgraced Craig is retiring this year. He will be replaced by Republican LG Jim Risch, who will easily defeat Fmr. Congressman Larry LaRocco. Republican Hold

CD1 (Sali, R) - Bill Sali won a highly contested 6 way republican primary with only 20% of the vote in 2006 and then went on to win the general election against Larry Grant by a very narrow margin, despite the massivly republican nature of the district. Sali is hated by the republican establishment, and especially by Governor Butch Otter. He is known for his rude and abrasive nature, as well as his uncompromising conservatism. His personal unpopularity has turned this safe republican district intoa swing district. This year he is facing Walt Minick, who is significantly more moderate than Grant was. Minick will beat Sali by a small margin. Democratic Pick Up

ILLINOIS
Senate (Durbin, D) - Dick Durbin, the #2 democrat in the senate, will win his race for reelection against Steve Sauerberg in a landslide.

CD6 (Roskam, R) - Roskam beat Tammy Duckworth in a close race 2 years ago. Roskam, who represents a marginal seat in the Chicago Suburbs, is a popular congressman and a good political and will probably win reelection. Barack Obama is going to win Illinois, and this district, by a huge margin and it's possible that that could translate into a surprise victory for dmeocrat Jill Morgenthaler, a decorated Iraq war veteran. Roskam will win, but by a surprisingly close margin, and its very possible Obama's Illinois blowout will lead to an upset for Morgenthaler. Republican Hold

CD8 (Bean, R) - Melissa Bean shockingly defeated long time Rep. Phil Crane in 2004, after which she was almost unanimously marked for reelection defeat in this Republican Northern Illinois district. Despite this, Bean has done an excellent job of consolidating herself in the district and won reelection in 2008 by a solid margin. She will do the same this year, but the next time the republicans have a good election year Bean is probably gone. Democratic Hold

CD10 (Kirk, R) - Mark Kirk, a moderate republican, represents a democratic leaning seat in northern Cook County. He barely beat Dan Seals in 2006, but this time around Seals will ride Obama's Illinois coattails to victory. Democratic Pick Up

CD11 (Weller) - Jerry Weller, once one of Dennis Hastert's top allies, is retiring this year. He will be replaced by popular State Senate President Debbie Halvorson, who has been slated to win this marginal district south of Chicago since Weller stepped down. She will beat republican Marty Ozinga by a significant margin. Democratic Pick Up

CD13 (Biggert, R) - Judy Biggert should have an easy time of reelection against Scott Harper in this republican leaning Chicago suburbs district, but Barack Obama's coattails could extend here. Biggert will win reelection. Republican hold

CD14 (Foster, D) - Bill Foster shocked the nation when he beat Jim Oberweis in a special election to take the seat of Fmr. Speaker Dennis Hastert. Despite the republican nature of this Fox Valley district Foster will beat the abrasive Oberweis for the second time, aided by Obama's coattails. Democratic Hold

CD18 (LaHood, R) - The Peoria based seat of Ray LaHood will be one of the bright spots for the Republicans on election night. Aaron Schock, a young state senator, will beat democrat Coleen Callahan to take LaHood's seat. Schock will be a big rising star in the Republican party. Watch out for this guy, hes only in his 20s and has limitless potential. He may well be President of the United States one day. Republican Hold

INDIANA
Governor (Daniels, R) - Mitch Daniels looked to be in serious trouble a year ago, but a weak democratic challenger and a very well run campaign have put him in good shape for reelection. He will win with a surprisingly comfortable margin, and will regain rising star status in the Republican Party. Republican Hold

CD2 (Donnelly, D) - Freshman Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly will easily defeat challenger Luke Puckett in this South Bend based district. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Souder, R) - In one of the big upsets of election night democratic challenger Mike Montagano will defeat heavily favored conservative incumbent Mark Souder. Democratic Pick Up

CD8 (Ellsworth, D) - Ellsworth, who was the first democratic gain of the 2006 elections, will easily defeat challenger Greg Goode. Democratic Hold

CD9 (Hill, D) - This Evansville based district has been nicknamed the Bloody 9th for its history of close elections. This election will be the fourth in a row where Democrat Baron Hill will face off against Republican Mike Sodrel. Hill won in 2002, Sodrel won in 2004 and Hill took back the seat in 2006. This year Hill will win by a comfortable margin. Democratic Hold

IOWA
Senate (Harkin, D) - Tom Harkin, one of the leading liberals in the senate and a 1992 presidential hopeful, will easily win reelection over republican challenger Chris Reed. Democratic Hold

CD1 (Braley, D) - Incumbent Bruce Braley will easily defeat Republican David Hartsuch, despite the highly competitive nature of this eastern Iowa district. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Loebsack, D) - Leonard Loebsack beat Jim Leach in an upset two years ago. This year he will defeat Marianette Miller-Meeks by a significant margin. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Boswell, D) - Davis Boswell is an old, do-nothing congressman. Despite this, he will handily defeat republican Kim Schmett in his Des Moines based district. Hopefully, Boswell will retire in 2010. Democratic Hold

C4 (Latham, R) - There are some people that think Becky Greenwald can beat Republican Congressman Tom Latham in this western Iowa district. They are Delusional. Republican Hold

KANSAS
Senate (Roberts, R) - Several months ago it looked like Senator Pat Roberts had a race on his hands. Polls showed his democratic challenger, Fmr. Congressman Jim Slattery, trailing by only a small margin. Since that time Roberts has widened the gap and now holds a commanding lead and will be easily reelected. Republican Hold

CD2 (Boyda, D) - Nancy Boyda beat formidable incumbent Jim Ryun in an almost mind-blowing upset. This year, Boyda is running for reelection against State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins, who narrowly beat Ryun in the primary. This is a very close race, even with the huge democratic advantage this year Boyda will have a tough time winning reelection in this Eastern Kansas district. It will be very close, but Boyda will win. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Moore, D) - Dennis Moore, a perennial target in his Kansas City district, is facing Republican STate Senator Nick Jordan this year. Moore will win easily. Democratic Hold

KENTUCKY
Senate (McConnell, R) - This may well be the marquee senate race this year. Mitch McConnell is a giant, the republican leader in the senate and the long-time kingmaker in Kentucky politics. He is locked in a surprisingly close race against Bruce Lunsford, a democratic businessman and 2 time gubernatoral candidate. This will be very close, but McConnell will win, possibly thwarting democratic hopes for 60 senate seats. Republican Hold

CD2 (Lewis, R) - After facing a close race in 2006 Republican Congressman Ron Lewis decided to retire this year. The republican candidate to replace him, Brett Guthrie, is a popular member of the state senate and a rising star in Kentucky politics. Guthrie was widely slated to win the seat initally, but democrat David Boswell has run a good race and has a shot at the seat. Guthrie will win. Republican Hold

CD3 (Yarmuth, D) - After 10 years representing this seat Anne Northup was narrowly beaten by John Yarmuth 2 years ago. After a losing run for governor in 2007 Northup announced she would challenge Yarmuth for her old Louisville seat. She has had a disappointing election cycle and Yarmuth will be reelected by a comfortable margin. Democratic Hold

LOUISIANA
Louisiana is a weird and state and CD2 and CD4 will be holding primaries on tuesday, while the rest of the state wll be holding generals. The generals in CDs 2 and 4 will be held in December.

Senate (Landrieu, D) - Mary Landrieu, the only vulnerable senate democrat, is in a tough fight with Democrat-turned-Republican state treasurer John Kennedy. Polling has showed this to be a tigh race, but Landrieu has built up a lead recently. This is only the second statewide election since hurricane Katrina, and it is still unclear how much of heavily democratic New Orleans has returned to the state, making democratic turnour unpredictable. Regardless, Landrieu will win reelection. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Jefferson, D) - Bill Jefferson, who represents New Orleans, is the most corrupt member of congress. He is famed for a raid on his house a few years ago in which police found thousands of dollars in his freezer. Tuesday will be his primary against Helena Moreno. Unfortunatly, Jefferson will probably win it and subsequently reelection in December. Democratic Hold

CD4 (McCrery, R) - Jim McCrery, the ranking republican on the appropriations committee, is retiring this year. Tuesday will be the primaries to select replacement nominees for what should be a close December election. The democrats will chose between Paul Carmouche and Willie Banks (Carmouche will win) and the republicans will chose between Chris Gorman and John Fleming. I'll go out on a limb and predict Carmouche then wins the December General Election. Dmeocratic Gain

CD6 (Cazayoux, D) - Don Cazayoux won this Baton Rouge based seat in a special election a few months ago. This time around he will have a tougher race. His opponent in the special election, Woody Jenkins, was highly flawed, whereas his opponent on tuesday will be Bill Cassidy, who is a stronger candidate. In addition Michael Jackson (no, not THAT Michael Jackson), an African-American State Senator beaten by Cazayoux in the primary, in running as an independent, and will draw significant votes from Cazayoux. These factors will combine to give a narrow win to Cassidy. Republican Pick Up

CD7 (Boustany, R) - Two term incumbent Chuck Boustany is facing an aggressive challenge from democrat Don Cravins in this western Gulf Coast district. Boustany will survive. Republican Hold

MAINE
Senate (Collins, R) - Susan Collins's democratic challenger, Tom Allen, is a top-tier recruit and an immensely popular congressman. Obama will handily win Maine. This is a year in which democrats are poised to make huge congressional gains. Yet Collins is going to win a comfortable reelection. Mainers just seem to love Susan Collins, I dont think theres any other explanation for her strength in this race. Look for Allen to run for Governor in 2010. Republican Hold

CD1 (Allen, D) - The race to replace Tom Allen will be won by Democrat Chellie Pingree, a former president of Common Cause. She will beast republican Charlie Summers easily. Democratic Hold

MARYLAND
CD1 (Gilchrest, R) - This district should be an easy republican hold. It has been held for years by Republican Wayne Gilchrest who, like Chris Shays, is one of the last northeastern liberal republicans left. The district, which takes up the Eastern Shore, is strongly Republican. Then, Conservative State Senator Andy Harris defeated Gilchrest in the republican primary. Since then it has only been bad news for the GOP. The Harris-Gilchrest primary fight was highly divisive, and Harris emerged with his republican base fractured. The democrats nominated Frank Kratovil, who has run a surprisingly strong campaign, and got big boost when Gilchrest endorsed him over Harris. This will be a close race, but Kratovil will win. Democratic Pick Up

MASSACHUSETTS
Senate (Kerry, D) - John Kerry will be reelected over Jeff Beatty in a landslide. Democratic Hold

MCIHIGAN
Senate (Levin, D) - Levin, Chairman of the Armed Services Committee, will crush republican Jack Hoogendyk. Democratic Hold

CD1 (Stupak, D) - Republican thought they had a shot at Bart Stupak's seat when Tom Casperson, a Republican State Senator, entered the race. His weak campaigning and anemic fundraising dashed their hopes and Stupak will be reelected in a landslide. Democratic Hold

CD7 (Walberg, R) - Tim Walberg unseated moderate incumbent Joe Schwarz in the primary 2 years ago. He then narrowly won the general against a weak democrat. Walberg is very conservative, clearly too much so for this southern Michigan District. This time around he is facing Mark Schauer, a well funded democratic veteran of the state legislature. Schauer will beat Walberg. Democratic Pick Up

CD9 (Knollenberg, R) - Joe Knollenberg, who represents the Oakland County suburbs of Detroit, is a veteran congressman, but his district has gone from strongly republican to a marginal seat since his election 20 years ago. He is facing a strong challenge from Gary Peters, and with Obama poised for a big win here Peters will knock off Knollenberg. Dmeocratic Pick Up

MINNESOTA
Senate (Coleman, R) - This race probably takes the cake as the most interesting race this year. Norm Coleman, a 60s hippie turned conservative republican, is defending the Senate seat he won in even stranger circumstances in 2002 (incumbent Paul Wellstone died a week before election day, was replaced by Walter Mondale and then his funeral was turned into a campaign rally, causing backlash that sank Mondale) His opponent this year is Al Franken, the comedian. Franken, best known for his numerous semi-humorous books on politics and his stint on SNL, has had a rocky time. Allegations of abuse of employees and weird tax returns severally hurt him. Then theres Dean Barkley, who served in the senate for a month when he was appointed by Governor Jesse Venture to fill Wellstone's seat until Coleman's inauguration. Barkley, whos running on Ventura's old Independence Party ticket, is a significant presence in the race and will take in a round 20% of the vote. Polls in this race have been erratic, it seems each one is either tied or has a different candidate up 2 point and Barkley consistently polls from 10% to 25%. In the end, Franken will be boosted by big turnout and Obama's easy win in the state but will still lose narrowly to Coleman. Republican Hold

CD1 (Walz, D) - Tim Walz was a surprise winner 2 years ago in this Rochester-Based southern Minnesota district. Republicans had high hopes for this seat at the beginning of the cycle, but they will not be realized. Walz will beat Republican Brian Davis easily. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Kline, R) - The democrats missed an opportunity here. Their nominee, Steve Sarvi, is a solid challenger, and incumbent John Kline has never posted excellent numbers. The DCCC, however, ignored this race and Kline will easily win. Republican Hold

CD3 (Ramstad, R) - Jim Ramstad, a veteran moderate republican, is retiring. THis district, based in the Minneapolis Suburbs, is a marginal seat. The democrats have nominated Ashwin Madia, a young Iraq War vet. The republicans have gone with Erik Paulsen, a veteran of the State Legislature. It will be a close race but Madia will win. Dmeocratic Pick Up

CD6 (Bachmann, R) - Michele Bachmann, an ultra-conservative republican, was cruising to an easy reelection this year. Then she went on Hardball and said that Barack Obama was unamerican and that every member of congress should be investigated for "unamerican" views. The backlash has been strong and her opponent, a well respected local mayor named Elwyn Tinklenberg, raised a million dollars in the 48 hours immediately following the interview. RNCC pulled the plug on this race a week ago and Bachmann will lose to Tinklenberg. Democratic Pick Up

MISSISSIPPI
Senate I (Cochran, R) - Veteran Senator Thad Cochran will easily beat for state legislator Erik Fleming. Republican Hold

Senate II (Wicker, R) - Both senate seats are up in Mississippi this year dur to Trent Lott's resignation from this seat, which prompted a special election. Governor Haley Barbour appointed Roger Wicker, a top house republican, to the seat. Wicker is facing an aggressive challenge from fmr. Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Wicker will win, though an upset is possible. Republican Hold

CD1 (Childers, D) - Travis Childres made national headlines when he surprisingly snatched this seat from the republicans in the special election to replace Roger Wicker. This district is heavily republican, but Childers, a conservative democrat, will win reelection over Southaven Mayor Greg Davis. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Pickering, R) - Republican Gregg Harper will easily beat Democrat Joel Gill to replace retiring congressman Chip Pickering. Republican Hold

MISSOURI
Governor (Blunt, R) - Matt Blunt is retiring after just one term because "we've accomplished really everything we wanted to accomplish." His 30% approval rating and 20 margin deficit in opinion polls had nothing to do with the decision, of course. The nominees to replace him are veteran state AG Jay Nixon and COngressman Kenny Hulshof. Nixon has led in the polls all year and will easily win. Democratic Pick Up

CD6 (Graves, R) - Sam Graves usually easily wins reelection in the Kansas City Suburbs district, but is facing a tough challenge this year from Fmr. Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes. Graves will win. Republican Hold

CD9 (Hulshof, R) - The race to replace Kenny Hulshof has become surprisingly close, with democrat Judy Baker and republican Blaine Luetkemeyer locked in a close race in this northeastern Missouri district. Luetkemeyer will probably win. Republican Hold

California Ballot Propositions

How i would vote on california's ballot propositions:

1A (High Speed Rail) - Yes: definitely worth the money

2 (Farm Animals) - No: good idea, bad timing. During a big recession is not the time to pass a proposition that, as good as it may be, will cause economic hardship for farmers, which are the backbone of the state economy

3 Children's Hospital Grants - Yes: More healthy people is a good thing

4 Waiting Period for an Abortion - No: bad, bad idea

5 Nonviolent Sentencing and Rehabilitation: YES: By far the best prop on the ballot this year, Prop 5 will reduce the number of nonviolent drug offenders in prison and shift the focus from punishment to rehabilitation. Not only will it potential improve the lives of hundreds of thousands of people who simply should not be in prison, it will also reduce prison overcrowding and will probably end up saving the state money.

6 Tougher Penalties and safety funding - NO! Terrible proposition. This is one of those "Grrrr: We're tough on Crime!" laws that just ends up making people's lives worse. Proposition 6 will make it so that 14 year olds can be tried in an adult court for any offense even remotely related to a gang. It hugely and unnecessarily increases sentences for people who commit minor crimes. Not only that, but it would cost well over a billion dollars a year, and this will will be REQUIRED to come from the general fund. This means its another billion dollars the state wont have to fund schools, roads, enviormental protection etc. If you dont like the budget woes we had this year, then you'll hate what will happen if this passes.

7 Renewable Energy - Prop 7 is written really stupidly. It's a good idea, but will just turn out to be easy money for oil companies. It forces small companies out of the market with a ridiculous requirement on the minimum output of renewable plants. It is so poorly written that it offers huge loopholes. Good Idea, Bad Proposition.

8 Eliminates Gay Marriage - NO!!!!

9 Victim's Rights - No: Like prop 6 its a "Grrrr: We're tough on Crime!" law that really will just hurt people in the end. It restricts parole and will just cause more people to be in prison when they shouldn't be. Like Prop 6 this will further hurt California's budget shortfall and make our budgetary woes permanent.

10Renewable Energy - Yes: Expensive, but worth it, prop 10, unlike 7, gets renewable energy right. It will expand alternate energy research and reward fuel efficient vehicles. Prop 10 is a big step on the road to sustainable, renewable energy. Now is the time for California to take the lead in Renewable Energy.

11 Redistricting - YES! Redistricting reform is a very, very good idea. The way congressional districts are drawn is ridiculous. Prop 11 will ensure compact, nonpartisan districts.

12 Veteran's Bonds - No: Too expensive. I like veterans, but i don't see why we need to spend 2 billion on them

This is a Great Time to be a Democrat

I have several big posts that im in the middle of writing, but for now just let me say this:

This is a fantastic time to be a democrat. these polls, both presidential and congressional, incite what could be minimally described as transcendental joy within the visceral depths of my being. If they hold up this election night will be one to remeber (though if Prop 8 passes it will certainly dampen the mood, thank god it wont be called untill early morning)

We're up in states and districts we've never been competitive in. Some of the worst republicans, like Marilyn Musgrave, Don Young, Michele Bachmann, Ted Stevens and Bill Sali, may well loose their seats. Best of all Barack Obama will probably be elected president.

At this point it would take some sort of big change in the nature of the race for anything to change, and its definatly not over (I've been alternating between sheer happiness and tantalizing anxiety about this election recently) but all indications are Obama will win with well over 300 electoral votes, and the dmeocrats will have big majorities in both houses of congress (btw the 60 seat number in the senate is wayyyy overrated)

So im excitedm and any democrat should be excited. Just pray that this time around we'll have our act together once we get there. We DONT need another 1993 and 1994. Winning this will feel great. Hopefully the governing part will go as planned.

tune in for upcomming posts about my favorite members of congress, California Ballot propositions, and in a week and a half my prediction for all the close house and senate races in the country

No More Marriage

The states should stop recognizing marriage. Not just gay marriage, all marriage.

I'm serious

The state should recognize civil unions that give people the legal rights now entailed by marriage. Any two people should be allowed to apply for such a union. Whether or not these people are married will be left up to them. That way, the various stigma attached to the word marriage will be irrelevant.

Sorry

about the sporadic posting, it should get more frequent as it gets more routine

Who i'd Have Voted For

This is who i would have voted for in every presidential election in history:

2004: John Kerry (Democrat)
2000: Al Gore (Democrat)
1996: Bill Clinton (Democrat)
1992: Bill Clinton (Democrat)
1988: Michael Dukakis (Democrat)
1984: Walter Mondale (Democrat)
1980: Jimmy Carter (Democrat)
1976: Jimmy Carter (Democrat)
1972: Jim McGovern (Democrat)
1968: Hubert Humphrey (Democrat)
1964: Lyndon Johnson (Democrat)
1960: John Kennedy (Democrat)
1956: 1956 and 1952 would have been very tough. Eisenhower was a great president, and i have quite a bit of love for Adlai Stevenson. I really can't decide who id have voted for if these were my options.
1952: See Above
1948: Thomas Dewey (Republican)
1944: Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat)
1940: Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat)
1936: Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat)
1932: Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat)
1928: Herbert Hoover (Republican)
1924: Calvin Coolidge (Republican)
1920: James Cox (Democrat)
1916: Charles Evans Hughes (Republican)
1912: Theodore Roosevelt (Bull Moose)
1908: William Howard Taft (Republican)
1904: Theodore Roosevelt (Republican)
1900: Anybody except William McKinley and Willian Jennings Bryan
1896: Anybody except William McKinley and Willian Jennings Bryan
1892: Grover Cleveland (Democrat)
1888: Grover Cleveland (Democrat)
1884: Grover Cleveland (Democrat)
1880: James Garfield (Republlican)
1876: Samuel Tilden (Democrat)
1872: Horace Greeley (Liberal Republican)
1868: Horatio Seymour (Democrat)
1864: Abraham Lincoln (Republican)
1860: Abraham Lincoln (Republican)
1856: John Fremont (Republican)
1852: John Hale (Free Soil)
1848: Martin Van Buren (Free Soil)
1844: James Birney (Liberty)
1840: Martin Van Buren (Democrat)
1836: Martin Van Buren (Democrat)
1832: Henry Clay (Whig)
1828: John Quincy Adams (Democratic-Republican)
1824: John Quincy Adams (Democratic-Republican)
1820: James Monroe (Democratic-Republican)
1816: Rufus King (Federalist)
1812: DeWitt Clinton (Federalist)
1808: Charles Cotesworth Pinckney (Federalist)
1804: Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican)
1800: John Adams (Federalist)
1796: John Adams (Federalist)
1792: George Washington
1789: George Washington

Strange

I would like to quickly point out an utterly bizarre phenomenon that no one else seems to notice

If you look at the senators of Illinois and Arizona, you have not only the 2 parties presidential nominees, but also their Senate Whips

The other senator from Arizona is Jon Kyl, the republican's #2 in the senate. His counterpart is Dick Durbin, the senior senator from Illinois. The Junior Senator form Illinois is, of course, Barack Obama.

Coincidence?

Obama's to lose?

As we head into the final days of the campaign it is becoming increasingly apparent that Barack Obama is in strong position for November. With polls now showing him up in Virginia, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and closing in on North Carolina and Indiana, it is looking like he may well break 300 electoral votes. While anything could happen in the next 25 days, it appears increasingly like Obama's campaign is in high gear and has all the momentum.
McCain is desperate. In recent days he's taking to branding Obama as a terrorist sympathizer, which is about as low as you can get. I would also add its pretty bad strategy. People will believe Obama is an elitist. They will believe that Obama is out of touch. They will believe Obama is inexperienced an naive. But i severely doubt they will take seriously a charge that Obama is a terrorist sympathizer (and i would add that all the stuff i just listed is total bs, but its believable bs.)
You never know whats going to happen, but at this point it would take a major major event for Obama to lose this election. If you look at the above map, the yellow states are currently toss ups, and all but Colorado and Nevada would put him over the top (i forgot to put ECVs on the map, but its Obama: 259 McCain: 190 Toss-Up: 89.) Recent Polling Averages (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) in those states:

Colorado: McCain+1
Florida: Obama+2
Nevada: Obama+1
North Carolina: Tied
Ohio: Obama+2
Virginia: Obama+3

If all of those are true, then Obama wins 324-214 (giving NC to McCain)

And if you want even better (for the democrats) numbers, polls released earlier today (and therefore not yet accounted for on electoral-vote.com) show this:

From FoxNews/Rasmussen:
Florda: Obama+7
Colorado: Obama+6
Missouri: Obama+3
Virginia: Obama+2
Ohio: Obama+1

ABC News/WSJ
Ohio: Obama+6

PPP
North Carolina: Obama+6

DemocracyCorps
Ohio: Obama+6

Suffolk University
Virginia: Obama+12

SurveyUSA
Virginia: Obama+10

National Polls

A quick bit of advice:

During this presidential election, the media has been referencing National Polls a lot

Ignore them

National Polls are irrelevant, inaccurate and useless. This is not a national election, it is 51 individual state (+DC) elections. In the end, the numbers matter only in a handful of swing states. All that matters are the polls out of the few swing states, especially Virginia, Colorado and Ohio, the three states i think will decide this election (Colorado especially.) Even if this weren't true, i personally think that accurately polling 130,000,000 votes is impossible