Election Predictions Part 2: Montana to Wyoming

This is part 2 of my predictions for tomorrow. Part 3, the presidential race and congressional numbers, will be posted in a few hours.

MONTANA
Senate (Baucus, D) - Max Baucus will easily win reelection over gadfly republican Bob Kelleher. Democratic Hold

Governor (Schweizter, D) - Brian Schweizter, one of the rising stars in democratic politics, will easily win reelection over Republican State Senator Roy Brown. Democratic Hold

NEBRASKA
Senate (Hagel, R) - Republican Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns will easily defeat Democrat Scott Kleeb to replace Chuck Hagel in the Senate. Republican Hold

CD2 (Terry, R) - Democratic Jim Esch had make a great run at this Omaha-based seat, but incumbent Lee Terry will be reelected. Republican Hold

NEVADA
CD2 (Heller, R) - Dean Heller will win a second term with an unimpressive victory over Jill Derby. Republican Hold

CD3 (Porter, R) Jon Porter has had a series of tough races in this Las Vegas suburbs district. This year is his toughest challenge yet. The democrats are running Dina Titus, a former State Senate President and the Democrat's 2006 gubernatorial nominee. This will be one of the closest races in the country, but Titus will beat Porter. Democratic Pick Up

NEW HAMPSHIRE
Governor (Lynch, D) - John Lynch is one of the most beloved governors in the country and will romp Republican Joe Kenney to win a 3rd term. Democratic Hold

CD1 (Shea-Porter, D) - No result in 2006 was more shocking than Shea-Poter's defeat of Congressman Jeb Bradley. She beat an establishment democrat in the primary and was left for dead by the national party. She then ran an almost totally unfunded campaign but still managed to beat the formidable incumbent. This year, Bradley is back for a rematch against Shea-Porter. Shea-Porter will be reelected. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Hodes, D) - First Term Congressman Paul Hodes will easily beat conservative talk show host Jennifer Mann. Democratic Hold

NEW JERSEY
Senate (Lautenberg, D) - This seat has given republicans headaches. Lautenberg is very vulnerable and could be beaten, but the republicans failed to find a good candidate. In fact, their first candidate had a stroke and their second dropped out. They finally settled on Dick Zimmer, a former congressman. Lautenberg will win reelection. Democratic Hold

CD3 (Saxton, R) - After longtime Congressman Jim Saxton announced his retirement and republican failed to find a top tier candidate in this marginal southern New Jersey seat, most expected that Democratic State Senator John Adler would have an easy time winning the seat. Chris Myers, the republican candidate, has run a solid campaign, however, and the race appears to be tied going into election night. Adler will win. Democratic Pick Up

CD5 (Garrett, R) - Some democrats think that Blind Rabbi Dennis Shulman poses a challenge to conservative incumbent Scott Garrett. He won't. Republican Hold

CD7 (Ferguson, R) - After fighting a tough race against Linda Stender in this Suburban district two years ago, Congressman Mike Ferguson is retiring. Stender is running again for the democrats and the republicans are running State Senator Leonard Lance. Both Lance and Stender have run solid campaigns and it's very difficult to predict a winner, but my gut tells me Lance wins this one. Republican Hold

NEW MEXICO
Senate (Domenici, R) - Pete Domenici, a senator since the 70s, is retiring this year. He will be replaced by Democrat Tom Udall, who is a hugely popular congressman. His opponent, Congressman Steve Pearce, is too conservative for this swing state and has an off-putting demeanor. Udall has held a double digit lead since entering the race. Democratic Pick Up

CD1 (Wilson, R) - Prominent congresswoman Heather Wilson ran for the senate this year and lost to Pearce in the primary. 2 years ago she was barely reelected in this 50/50 Albuquerque-based district. Both sides have come up with superb candidate, Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White for the republicans and City Councilor Martin Heinrich for the Democrats. This will be a kinfe-edge race, but Heinrich will be on top. Democratic Pick Up

CD2 (Pearce, R) - The 2nd district takes up the low 2/3rds of New Meixico and has been represented for 6 years by Steve Pearce, who is running for senate this year. This district should be republican, but Ed Tinsley, their nominee, has been a weak candidate, and Democrat Harry Teague has run a superb campaign. Teague, a moderate, will win. Democratic Pick Up

CD3 (Udall, D) - Democrat Ben Lujan will easily defeat Republican Dan East to take Tom Udall's heavily democratic Northern New Mexico seat. Democratic Hold

NEW YORK
CD13 (Fossella, R) - One day, someone will turn what happened in this seat to a soap opera. The New York 13th is living proof that politics is absolutely fascinating. Republican Vito Fossella, who has represented this Staten Island seat for years, was arrested earlier this year for driving drunk after visiting his mistress and their illegitimate child (he has a real wife and kids in NY, by the way.) He promptly dropped out of his race for reelection. He was replaced by multimillionaire Frank Powers. Then, Powers's estranged son jumped in the race as a libertarian. That was a big problem for Powers-the-Father, as the two have the same name. As if the race hadn't taken enough weird twist and turns already the elder Powers died in June. The republican party then had a mini-war to replace him. In the end they settled on Bob Straniere, though he was such a weak candidate that they tried to get the disgraced Fossella to come back and run again. The democrats, meanwhile, nominated Respected NYC Councilor Mike McMahon, who will crush Straniere by a big margin. Democratic Pick Up

CD19 (Hall, D) - Freshman congressman and former rock star John Hall will easily win reelection over republican Kieran Michael Lalor in this . Democratic Hold

CD20 (Gillibrand, D) - Kirsten Gillibrand represents a republican leaning district in southern New York. She is being challenged Fmr. State Secretary of State Sandy Treadwell, who has run a solid campaign and has been e prolific fundraiser. Gillibrand will be reelected, but by a smaller than expected margin. Democratic Hold

CD21 (McNulty, D) - Democrat Paul Tonko will easily beat Republican Jim Burhmaster to replace Mike McNulty in this Albany-based district. Democratic Hold

CD24 (Arcuri, D) - Mike Arcuri won an epic race in this Utica-based district 2 years ago. THis time around he will beat republican Rich Hanna easily. Democratic Hold

CD25 (Walsh, R) - Fmr. Congressional Aide Dan Maffei will easily snatch this Syracuse seat for the democrats. Long time representative Jim Walsh is stepping down. Democratic Pick Up

CD26 (Reynolds, R) - The 26th, based in the suburbs of Buffalo and Rochester, has long been high profile republican Tom Reynolds's district. Reynolds is retiring this year after barely winning in 2006. This is one of the few places where the democrats have had problems. The primary was supposed to be between 04/06 nominee Jack Davis and Iraq War Vet Jon Powers, but a little-known attorney, Alice Kryzan managed to win. Kryzan is an unattractive general election candidate, but her main problem is New York's bizarre election law. NY has a lot of parties, and they can co-nominate candidates. The Working Families Party had already nominated Powers, and he is still on their ballot line. The potential of split votes between Powers and Kryzan make a Lee win likely. Republican Hold

CD29 (Kuhl, R) - This is a solidly republican district, but Randy Kuhl has never been popular. His personal problems have lead to 2 unimpressive wins. This time, he will lose to Eric Massa. (an editorial note: This is one of the worst races in the country, Kuhl is awful, but Massa is running on a ridiculous anti-trade platform, either one will make a terrible congressman) Democratic Pick Up

NORTH CAROLINA
Senate (Dole, R) - Liddy Dole has been a leading republican for thirty years. Her reelection tot he senate, however, is far from certain. Dole has been largely removed from the senate recently, with few bills to her credit. She also has been absent from North Carolina, a newspaper investigation revealed shes spent only 10 days in North Carolina in the last few years. Dole is facing an aggressive challenge from State Senator Kay Hagan. The race has been very close, but in the end Hagan will win. Dole tried a last minute strategy trying to portray Hagan as an atheist, which will hugely backfire. Democratic Pick Up

Governor (Easley, D) - Popular incumbent Mike Easley has been term limited out of the governorship. The democrats have nominated Bev Perdue, the LG, and the republican have nominated Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory. McCrory will narrowly win. Republican Pick Up

CD08 (Hayes, R) - 2 years ago Larry Kissell came within a few hundred votes of unseating Robin Hayes in this suburban Charlotte district, despite being ignored by the national demcratic party. This time around, the part has heavily invested in Kissell and this race, and he has a superb, well funded campaign this time around. Hayes has grown unpopular, as his pro-trade stances are unpopular in this district. His problems were compounded when he said "liberals hate real Americans that work and achieve and believe in God." His comment shave had big backlash and he will lose to Kissell handily. Democratic Pick Up

CD11 (Shuler, D) One term congressman Heath Shuler would have a tough reelection in this conservative Appalachia district was it not for the erratic behavior of his opponent. Carl Mumpower, a city councilor, suspended his campaign when the republican county committees refused to sign a loyalty pledge. Shuler will win easily. Democratic Hold

NORTH DAKOTA
Governor (Hoeven, R) - Hugely popular governor John Hoeven will cruise to reelection. Republican Hold

OHIO
CD1 (Chabot, R) - Steve Chabot represents a battleground Cincinnati district. He narowly was reelected in 2006 and is facing a tough challenge from Steve Driehaus this year. This is a toss up race, but Chabot will narrowly pull out a win. Republican Hold

CD2 (Schmidt, R) - Jean Schmidt, first elected in a 2005 special election, represents one of the most republican district in the country. Yet she is so abrasive and unpopular that she has never won by more than a few percentage points. This year she is facing a rematch with her 2006 opponent, Victoria Wulsin. Schmidt will win, solely because of the republican nature of the district.

CD7 (Hobson, R) - Long time congressman Dave Hobson is retiring form his rural central Ohio district. Steve Austria, a State Senator, will replace him, though his opponent, Sharon Neauhardt, has run a strong campaign. Republican Hold

CD11 (Vacant) - Marcia Fudge will cruise to an easy win to replace Congresswomen Stephanie Tubbs Jones, who died in August. This central Cleveland district is massively democratic. Democratic Hold

CD14 (LaTourette, R) - Steve LaTourette faced a stronger than usual challenge in this Northeastern Ohio district from Bill O'Neill, a judge. LaTourette will win. Republican Hold

CD15 (Pryce, R) - After narrowly pulling out a win in one of the closest races of 2006 congresswomen Deborah Pryce is retiring. The race to replace her between democrat Mary Jo Kilroy and republican Steve Stivers has been contentious. Stivers will win, barely. Republican Hold

CD16 (Regula, R) - After 30 years in the house 80 year old incumbent Ralph Regula is retiring from this Canton-Based district. He will be replaced by democrats John Boccieri, who will beat unimpressive republican Kirk Shcuring. Look for Boccieri to become a rising star, perhaps a senator or governor one day. Democratic Pick Up.

CD18 (Space, D) - Zack Space won this heavily republican southeastern Ohio district by a shockingly big 20 point margin in 2006. His win this time around wont be as big, but he will still beat Republican Bill Dailey. Democratic Hold

OKLAHOMA
Senate (Inhofe, R) - Andrew Rice is a solid Democartic Challenger, but Jim Inhofe will be reelected. Republican Hold

OREGON
Senate (Smith, R) - Gordon Smith is a well-liked low-key moderate. He is not well liked enough, however, to win reelection this year. Oregon is going big for Obama, and State House Speaker Jeff Merkley has run a solid campaign against Smith. Merkley will win, but look for Smith to run for Governor in 2010. Democratic Pick Up

CD5 (Hooley, D) - When Darlene Hooley announced her retirement form this 50/50 Portland Suburbs seat this was seen as a toss up race. Then it was revealed that the republican nominee, staunchly "pro-life" Mike Erickson, paid for a woman he had impregnated to get an abortion. Democrat Kurt Schrader will win easily. Democratic Hold

PENNSYLVANIA
CD3 (English, R) - Phil English usually wins an easy reelection in this marginal Erie-based seat. He is a well-liked moderate and a good politican. This year, however, will be different. With the national wind at the democrat's back and with Kathy Dahlkemper running a good campaign, English will be defeated. Democratic Pick Up

CD4 (Altmire, D) - Jason Altmire was a surprise winner two years ago in this Pittsburgh area seat. Melissa Hart, the rising star republican Altmire beat in 2006, is running again. The centrist Altmire will be reelected. Democratic Hold

CD5 (Peterson, R) - Republican Glenn Thompson will defeat Democrat Mike McCracken to replace John Peterson in this central Pennsylvania District. Republican Hold

CD6 (Gerlach, R) - Jim Gerlach was left for dead in 2006 before running a marvelous campaign and being surprisingly reelected. His formidable political skills scared off potential challngers and the democrats were left with 3rd-tier challenger Bob Roggio. Gerlach will easily win. Republican Hold

CD7 (Sestak, D) - Joe Sestak, a navy admiral, comfortably won 2 years ago. He will do so again, beating Craig Williams in this Suburban Philadelphia district. Democratic Hold

CD8 (Murph, D) - Patrick Murphy, a young Iraq War veteran, barely won this seat 2 years ago. This time, he will be reelected easily over Tom Manion in this Bucks County district. Democratic Hold

CD10 (Carney, D) - Centrist Chris Carney won two years after his opponent's mistresses called the police when he tried to choke her. Carney is facing a tough reelection fight against Chris Hackett in this conservative Northeastern Pennsylvania district. Carney will narrowly win, but is unlikely to keep this seat for long. Democratic Hold

CD11 (Kanjorski, D) - One of the more surprising developments of this campaign has been the vulnerability of Paul Kanjorski. His opponent, Lou Barletta, is well known as mayor of a local town and has run an aggressive campaign. Kanjorski is a curmudgeonly old incumbent and will lose to Barletta in a rare gain for the GOP. Republican Pick Up

CD12 (Murtha, D) - Veteran Congressman John Murtha was cruising to reelection untill a few weeks ago when he implied all of his constituents were racist rednecks. Since then his challenger, William Russell, has gained in the polls. Murtha will win, but by a weak margin. Democratic Hold

CD18 (Murph, R) - Congressman Tim Murph has been under fire for some ethical problems recently, but should hold on against Steve O'Donnell. Republican Hold

RHODE ISLAND
Senate (Reed, D) - Senator Jack Reed, who is at the top of Obama's shortlist for Secretary of Defense, will crush Bob Tingle by a colossal margin. Democratic Hold

SOUTH CAROLINA
Senate (Graham, R) - Senator Lindsay Graham will beat Bob Conley by a big margin. Republican Hold

CD1 (Brown, R) - Who would have though that a gay liberal millionaire woman would make a competitive run at a seat in South Carolina. Linda Ketner has run a strong campaign against the lackluster incumbent, Henry Brown. Ketner has a shot at victory, but Brown will probably win. Republican Hold

SOUTH DAKOTA
Senate (Johnson, D) - The Republicans really wanted to make a run at Tim Johnson, who is in poor health. They weren't able to recruit a good candidate, however, and Johnson will easily beat Joel Dykstra, Democratic Hold

TENNESSEE
Senate (Alexander, R) - High ranking republican Lamamr Alexander will easily defeat Democrat Bob Tuke. Republican Hold

CD1 (Davis, R) - After beating incumbent David Davis in the primary, Johnson City Mayor Phil Roe will crush Bob Russell and head to Washington. Republican Hold

TEXAS
Senate (Cornyn, R) - The democrats missed an opportunity here. John Cornyn is unpopular and Rick Noriega is a strong candiate, but national democrats failed to come through for him. Cornyn will win with an unimpressive margin. Republican Hold

CD7 (Culberson, R) - Democrat Mike Skelly has made a great run at John Culberson, but Culberson will win in this very republican district. Republican Hold

CD10 (McCaul, R) - Despite the republican nature of this district Mike McCaul has won by unimpressive margins two election in a row. He got a huge break in February when a strong challenger was defeated in the primary. McCaul will win reelection, but by another unimpressive margin. Republican Hold

CD22 (Lampson, D) - Nick Lampson won Tom DeLay's old district in 2006 when a technicality forced the Republican Candidate off the ballot. This district is overwhelmingly republican, and Lampson will lose reelection to Pete Olson. Republican Pick Up

CD23 (Rodriquez) - Ciro Rodriquez was elected in an upset in a December 06 runoff after this district was redrawn by the Supreme Court. Rodriquez will face a tough challenge from Lyle Larson, but will win. Democratic Hold

UTAH
Governor (Huntsman, R) - Hugely popular Governor Jon Huntsman will crush democrat Bob Springmeyer. Republican Hold

CD3 (Cannon, R) - After beating incumbent Chris Cannon in the primary a few months ago Jason Chaffetz will easily be elected to congress. Republican Hold

VERMONT
Governor (Douglas, R) - Jim Douglas has been well liked as governor of Vermont and has 3 times won elections solidly. He is facing a tough challenge this year from Gaye Symington, speaker of the state house. Douglas will win, but by a small margin. Look for Symington to run again when Douglas retires. Republican Hold

VIRGINIA
Senate (Warner, R) - Incumbent JOHN Warner, a well respected long time Senator, is retiring. He will be replaced by hugely popular democratic ex-governor MARK Warner, who will crush former republican governor Jim Gilmore in a landslide. Democratic Pick Up

CD2 (Drake, R) - Thelma Drake is facing a tough challenge from Glenn Nye, but will win reelection. Republican Hold

CD5 (Goode, R) - Virgil Goode is facing a surprisingly tough race against Tom Perriello. Goode will win. Republican Hold

CD10 (Wolf, R) - Longtime incumbent Frank Wolf is well respected and immensely popular. He represents an increasingly democratic district, however, and will probably be the last republican to represent this district. He will beat Judy Feder. Republican Hold

CD11 (Davis, R) - Tom Davis, a very influential republican, is retiring this year. He will be replaced by a democrat, Gerry Connolly. This district is at the tip of northern virginia, and has gone from republican to democratic in the last few years. Democratic Pick Up

WASHINGTON
Governor (Gregoire, D) - Christine Gregoire beat Dino Rossi 4 years ago by a few hundred votes, the closest gubernatorial race in history. This year will also be very close, this race is way way too close to call, but Obama will win Washington big and i'll give Gregoire a tiny edge. Democratic Hold

WEST VIRGINIA
Senate (Rockefeller, D) - Jay Rockefeller will crush Jay Wolfe. Democratic Hold

CD2 (Capito, R) - Popular moderate Shelley Moore Capito is usually a democratic target, and is facing her strongest challenge yet from Anne Barth, an aide to Robert Byrd. Barth will come close, but Capito will win. Republican Hold

WISCONSIN
CD8 (Kagen, D) - Steve Kagen beat John Gard by a narrow margin in this Green Bay based district two years ago. This year he will beta Gard by a bigger margin. Democratic Hold

WYOMING
Senate (Barrasso, R and Enzi, R) -Both Wyoming seats are up this year due to the death of Craig Thomas. Both will be held by the Republicans.

CDAt-Large (Cubin, R) - After a tough fight 2 years ago, Barbara Cubin is retiring. She will probably be replaced by Fmr. State Treasurer Cynthia Lummis, though democrat Gary Trauner has a chance. Republican Hold.